Stealth Bear Market?📉Fear Rising, Alts Bleeding, AI Cracking👀

0:00 Let's get into it today.

0:01 We could have a stealth bear market or a stealth rally all playing at the same time. Before we do that, I want to thank our sponsor. That's iTrust Capital, where you guys can get into your own crypto IRA, cryptocurrency stocks, gold and silver, all available over on iTrust Capital. One account, unlimited possibilities. This is one of the platforms they've been around for quite a while. You guys can go over and use them. If you have a current IRA, you can transfer that If you want to start a brand new IRA, you can also do that as well. So just use our link down below. It's going to give you a $ 100 funding.

0:34 Reward to get started.

0:35 And you're going to have to start tax planning soon. And IRAs are one of the diversification things that you should be doing to set yourself up for success.

0:42 Let's get started.

0:43 I want to start with, of course, the fear and greed for the traditional markets. This has been hovering into the extreme fear zone all morning as we were recording on this, holding at around 25%. It had bounced down, I think, sub-25 just earlier. When you look at the crypto market, a little bit different. It's setting in a little bit better position, holding at a neutral position right now at 48. And I don't know, are you guys right now, if you look at the way you're making trades, whether you're going into stocks, maybe you're buying gold and or crypto and you're diversifying, tell me where you are right now. Are you in more of a neutral mode or more on a fearful mode in the markets?

1:23 Just hit it in the comments down below. I want to kind of get your feedback.

1:26 Let's get into a clip here because this clip will go into Gareth Soloway, who's been on the show many times, talking about this is the month that makes or breaks it.

1:34 Take a look.

1:35 The month that breaks markets, the 1907 panic. This is actually what triggered J.P. Morgan back in the day to bail out the stock market and ultimately began the Federal Reserve, right? 1929, Dow falls 89%, all right? Then you have 1987, Black Monday, 1989, Friday the 13th, 1997, down 7.2%, trading halted. And 2008, worst week ever on record, down 18%. This is when Lehman failed, panic spreads, and everything changed. So bottom line is what we know is October tends to be a very violent and potentially negative month. And certainly what we've seen thus far has set the possibility in motion we could be on the verge of this. All right.

2:28 So a lot of people looking at this market right now in two veins. You have some still believe this bull.

2:34 Market is holding.

2:35 And if you look at AI related stocks, you would probably agree with that. Forty nine percent of the S & P 500 right now above every bubble peak, except for what happened during the railroads. This, of course, gets into the issue of the centralization of where TradFi is right now.

2:52 And that is anything that's AI. That's the trade.

2:56 The real question is, how does this play out? Because you've got credit pressure markets coming in hard. The question is how that plays into what the Fed is going to do, not only in this month, but also in December as we get into rate structures. And then you look at this statement right here. And this is where we get into this stealth bear market. And it might be a historic opportunity. There's a couple of points within this I want to highlight. We're now witnessing a historic market paradox.

3:23 A bull bear market that is in play.

3:26 And within it, you can kind of see where we've had hits, where the S & P has had its record high, what we saw in terms of the bottom, and then other key indicators right here. This was a major component of the bullish thesis for equities. And this all centers around investors expecting cheaper capital. And remember, this is a big deal because if cheaper capital is truly coming in, you'd have more investment and record capex by tech companies. Not all of that is completely translated just yet.

3:57 All right, one other thing was this right here, that that is the S & P should be above 9,000. And that, of course, is providing that the war didn't happen, okay? Nothing happened in the Middle East. Iran wasn't attacked. We didn't have any of that occur. And oil prices were regular, I guess. I don't necessarily agree with this. I'm not sure that this would be a factor because I'm looking at the way that the AI trade is playing out.

4:20 You would need much more broad participation in the rest of the S & P 500. And I just don't know that that would be the case. Software is already taking a hit. So SaaS companies, I think you're going to see a lot of companies in general because of AI that will continue to see less performance. So the real core is that AI has already been performing against what's happening globally. Maybe it performs a little bit better, but I don't see it at 9,000 for sure. All right, this happened over the weekend. Putin floats a summit deal, and this is coming in from both with Trump and Xi.

4:54 If this comes together and they can put a deal together with the Ukrainians, this, of course, could change things again more on a global macro side. Remember, Russia and Ukraine both now harbingers of what's happening around energy as almost as much as what's going on in Iran. And one factor that has been played out here recently is that Trump has continued to push Zelensky to.

5:18 Do a surrender. I just don't see that happening.

5:22 Now, could we see some sort of, you know, maybe militarized zone or some detente at some point that would kind of set this up? Maybe that would be the case. But this will be interesting if this summit actually occurs. And, you know, there's going to be some pressure here, obviously, by China and Trump in general to kind of.

5:39 Get this done.

5:40 You have Tom Lee's tracker coming in. Oil is trading at levels not seen since 2008 financial crisis. You know, for you young people out there, that was the last time that we really saw a major hit on the market. And if you go back and look at what happened in 2008, October 2007, actually, the 2008.

5:57 Was the year that we really started to see impact.

6:00 And I think that's the same addition that we're dealing with right now is oil and its concern on where inflation is playing out. Because remember, energy is is one of the key things that's driving the core inflation. Now, does that stick around if things kind of cool off in the Middle East?

6:17 That's the real question.

6:18 Bitcoins, though, could be setting up for a coiling impact on the market. If you look at a couple of notices here on the Bollinger Bands, you'll see these touch points, and we're seeming to come back in on them after significant moves up in both of those last two pumps. So maybe this is the time. I'd still defer a little bit to what Gareth was saying is that October cycle, because remember, this is still investors and you have to be able to have something happen in the major market to see any kind of rotation. And that's where the capital is going to come from. My concern is if the dollar holds a lot stronger, does it in fact start to slow the issue of excess capital starting to go into risk markets like crypto? That's a concern. right

7:05 now that we're dealing with. And if you watch it, how credit and the Fed are both going to interact in the next really 30 days, you're probably going to get a much bigger signal in being able to understand that. So be on the lookout there. Bitcoin dominance, though, is pumping right now. Short-term bearish for alts. And this was something I talked about on Friday with Evan, is that this could be a market sell-off. And in fact, over the weekend, we did have a little bit of hits on the traditional alts. But I think this is maybe short-lived, but at the same time, there will only be a few winners here. Here's a clip from Ansem that kind of talks about that.

7:42 Take a look.

7:43 A lot of people missed hype because they were looking at majors, Bitcoin and ETH. But Bitcoin and ETH went down like 30%, 40% from there. And hype was, as we know, has been up only. How you would in previous cycles, you're never buying alts when majors are going down. You're just absolutely not doing that. The industry, altcoins don't trend all at one time. They trend based on their actual fundamental values and inflows.

8:04 Yeah, and he's right.

8:05 I mean, this is a typical signal that everybody has followed in crypto, I think, forever. But if you look at it, the weekend selling did hit altcoins hard as a fear from equity spills into crypto. Typical altcoin now down over 5% in the weekend close. This could be the largest weekend drop since April. So if you were going to buy an altcoin right now and you buy these dips and you could still see at this and say, hey, there's maybe another 10%, 15%. in the market that could come off of these coins, which ones would you buy?

8:39 Let me know in the comments.

8:39 Which ones would you buy right now, maybe in a dollar cost average scenario, if you're a believer in those specific altcoins? One other thing I want to touch on on Ansem's clip there was looking at fundamental structure around most of these altcoins. That is a core thesis that we talk about.

9:00 All the time. However, sentiment is a major influence when the majors are moving.

9:08 And what I mean by that is Bitcoin and Ethereum, if they are moving, and to a certain extent, maybe even Solana, if it's moving to a certain extent, then it has an influence on sentiment in the market. Sentiment in the market can now start to correlate even on altcoins that don't necessarily have the narrative there and the fundamentals there.

9:26 So you have to kind of understand that.

9:28 Most people will say, well, no, I'm just going to trade on the side of fundamental altcoins.

9:33 Yes, no problem there.

9:35 Some people want a higher risk appetite and they're looking at those alternatives and usually sentiment driven tokens are the ones, just like meme coins, are going to be the ones that see the most gains. But it really depends on your risk appetite. And I'm not telling you guys to go out there and trade on more high risk assets, but just be aware that that's how the market moves.

9:56 And I think this is something that a lot of people understand that has been in crypto, But there's a lot of you that are brand new to the channel that have not been in crypto.

10:03 And this is kind of a new thing for you. So pay attention. All right.

10:06 Speaking of fundamentals, you got to take a look at one of the biggest altcoins out there, I feel like. And that is Circle. Kind of moves like an altcoin in terms of volatility, but it hits back at rival stablecoins. This, of course, has been moving in a direction that I think many of you guys know. We've been looking at this for quite a while. We've talked about it quite a bit. This is one of the top movers. We think it will continue to be that way in terms of a representative on traditional finance as a stock for the crypto entities that are out there. So just pay attention.

10:37 Circle is being able to do it. It brought in about $ 1. 4 billion in revenue.

10:41 Jeez.

10:41 $ 1. 4 billion in revenue.

10:44 That's the first half of 2026. And we haven't seen an adoption boom.

10:50 So imagine what this company is going to do when we do see an adoption move. Last week, they also went out to 40 different countries. A lot of news that's going to help, I think, USDC become the de facto stablecoin and maybe rival USDT. I don't know if it will happen, but things are moving fast for Circle.

11:08 Pay attention.

11:09 Other things you've got happening right now, JP Morgan is now three tokenized products on ETH.

11:14 And this is on ETH mainnet. You've got JPMD. This is their U.S. deposit token on ETH and base.

11:20 I don't know if you would use that, but it's up to you. But I'm just wondering, you know, would you use a bank deposit token or would you use something like a traditional stablecoin? Then you've got money, which is tokenized money market fund. That's something I'm not necessarily interested in. And then you've got JLTXX, which is a tokenized money market fund also.

11:39 All of these are riding on Ethereum.

11:41 The thing is, there's going to be a lot of investors out there that are coming over from traditional finance that most likely will take part in those kinds of transactions and funds.

11:50 All right, so one point on this is that when.

11:52 You kind of compare the two, you've got JP Morgan and Circle almost on an intersection for a head-on collision here. The real question is, who's going to win that race? I still think it's going to be Circle because of their native introduction into crypto in general, their blockchain dominance that they've had in trading pairs, and the extension that they have globally already. That's a big powerful play compared to what JP Morgan is going to be doing here in.

12:20 The United States by itself. So I think this is a failed effort.

12:24 It's a good effort in the sense of them trying to play in the game, but I don't think that these kind of companies are going to win the race overall.

12:32 Prove me wrong.

12:33 Let me go to a clip real quick. It's an interesting theory is that institutionalization has actually spoiled crypto.

12:41 And then I have some thoughts on this, but take a look.

12:44 I will say institutionalization is absolutely the worst thing I think that happened for you guys, for people that truly believe in it, because the value proposition of decentralization and like liberty and all that kind of stuff has all become really, really badly implemented. at least in the short term, it's a branding problem for crypto. Are there enough 18 to 25-year-olds that are going to be true believers?

13:11 Maybe. I don't know.

13:12 I feel like the brand has been really badly hurt by this administration and just by the general Wall Street inhaling crypto.

13:22 All right.

13:24 So my argument to that is this.

13:27 When you look at you know, major adoption cycles. And, you know, I've seen a few of these in my past, been in tech for a long time.

13:36 So, and I'm not saying that I'm right.

13:37 I'm just saying that you look at human behavior and that's the thing that I think we're going to get into. This is legitimizing it to a certain extent. What I'm talking about is institutional adoption into crypto and blockchain.

13:48 So fair enough.

13:49 You definitely will have pushback from kind of this next generation.

13:54 But I think that it's gonna go the opposite way. I think it will only.

13:57 Say, because it was adopted over there, the OGs, the boomers did this, we can do it better.

14:05 So I think we'll see maybe a whole.

14:07 New era of blockchain, crypto projects, et cetera, that will start to dominate that younger generation and it will only explode them because they understand now they have detached from the system. That to me is a great opportunity And the advantage that the institutions brought to this is the fact that they made it happen. In essence, you push that market away by getting into it. So I think it's the flip. I think it's a complete different way of how investors are going to look at this in the future. Now, do I think this is going to be next generation investors going into banks? No, I think banks are done. We're not going to see banks the way you and I have seen them in the last two, three, four decades. This is going to be a complete revolution

14:52 in finance. Mark my word, this is going to happen, and I think it's going to be let in because institutions came in to spoil the game. So pay attention to that one. You've got another guy spoiling the game right now, and that is Ledger. Ledger is now going out with their new Ledger Atom. This is going to contain Ledger's most advanced anti-tampering and tamper-evident solutions to date.

15:16 I'm glad that companies are out there trying to do that, and they should be, but I think they're in a bit of a spot. a trouble right now in terms of hardware wallets. This is one of the things they're proposing, which is a device that won't necessarily be a phone. They partnered with Solana. I saw that over the weekend.

15:36 I'm sorry, Solana, I didn't think that was a good partnership. I understand that was probably months, maybe years of business development that had to kind of culminate there. But this, I don't think, is a solution that anybody that has been in crypto for a long time is going to use.

15:50 Is a device that is kind of like a phone.

15:52 You need to connect to Wi-Fi, but yet at the same time, you're still dealing with agentic issues. Those kind of things I'm not really interested in. I think you've got to retain control in some sort of self-custody solution. That's the only model to use. And I think privacy is going to be paramount going forward. And that's the key to watch right here is how these companies play into this. And this is another thing.

16:14 Why not?

16:14 Why do you have to have an open market out there trying to create devices that to see if your devices are being attacked by other devices. So this is an example, and this is trying to detect a spy implant, basically. So you got a hardware out there, which was the problem. If you guys don't know the news, there was devices that were somehow.

16:37 Vector attacked by a supply chain through a distributor.

16:41 Not necessarily, I won't name countries or anything of that nature, but basically a distributor was the one where the vector occurred. And now they're trying to get in and actually, and this was a hardware change in the actual devices themselves. Now they're going and trying to build something to be able to detect this. These are the kind of things, guys, that should not happen.

16:59 These are company killers.

17:01 And I've seen this in the tech industry and in the compute industry a lot. The opportunity here, I think, for a real new solution is here. So be on the lookout. We may see some very interesting solutions coming up very quickly. because you're going to see a major part of the market starting to look elsewhere for self-custody solutions.

17:24 So pay attention to that. We're going to cover this and a lot more this week, so stay tuned. If you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join our free private member group.

17:41 The link is in the description.