Fantasy Football Week 4 Key Questions: Breakouts, Bounce-Backs & Must-Start Matchups (Ep. 2236)

0:00 Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined this Friday morning by Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown. We are talking some week four key questions. And Fitz, the Cleveland Browns are in first place in the AFC North. No team in the NFL has more wins than them. I want to quickly talk about that game last night. I didn't actually get to watch it.

0:20 I was out of the house last night, but obviously I was following along. And the Browns are 3-1 on a three-game winning streak here, Fitz. And Todd Munkin, like coach of the year, Deshaun Watson, he's certainly not going to win something like comeback player of the year, but it's working better than I expected it to.

0:35 If I had a friend from another country who was starting to get into football and wanted to adopt an NFL team, I might recommend the Cleveland Browns. As a team that, look, get in on the ground floor of a team that has been a, I won't say historic failure, because obviously in the 50s and 60s, the Browns had some awesome teams, even in the 70s and 80s, but.

1:02 Things are really pointing in the right direction for this team. A lot of exciting talent on defense. They're young pass catchers. Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion, Harold Fannin, incredible. Quinch on Judkins, not bad. I'd love to see what he could do once this line gets going. And all you have to do is get the quarterback thing right. And Deshaun Watson actually playing passably so far this season for the Browns. So, man, things are really looking up. for the Cleveland Browns for a change. And like their fans deserve it, man. They've, they've been through the ringer. This whole Deshaun Watson thing has been a nightmare. Finally, nice to see Deshaun Watson winning games for them. Yeah, that was, that was fun

1:42 to see. And someone might've had the money line on the Cleveland Browns.

1:46 Someone that we are excited for. DeVro, is this like a Todd Munkin credit? Is this a credit to the roster that's around Deshaun Watson? Is it a credit to Watson? Not that we want to go out of our way to you know, give them too many props, but where do you kind of point to as what's been successful so far for the Browns this season?

2:03 Oh man, I think part of this has been schedule. Um, because I don't think any of us believe that the Steelers are a good football team. The Panthers defense is horrible. The Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield can't seem to get out of their own way. And Todd Bowles is going to be fired very quickly this year. So I don't want to throw cold water on the Browns. Their schedule has helped them though. But, Are they outperforming expectations? Yes. And I'll point to the defense. I think the defense were, it was like losing miles Garrett. Okay. Knowing what we know now, miles Garrett will probably have, you know, he had an issue wouldn't have been part of the pass rush. Anyway, Jared verse, the secondary, all of the parts of pieces

2:41 playing well, I think the defensive backbone of this team is what's quietly carrying them. Deshaun Watson is playing somewhere in the vicinity of league average quarterback right now, but, Yeah, Browns are very surprising. I don't want to go out of my way and be like, oh, they're amazing. And I was actually going to counterpoint and ask Fitz at the very beginning, this friend, do you like this friend?

3:05 Or is this like a frenemy like that you're recommending the Browns?

3:08 Young talent. They've rebuilt the right way.

3:10 I mean, how good do the trade of the number one pick to the Jaguars? Now that I hope he's not. I hope the injury last night wasn't serious. But Mason Graham had been playing some really good ball before he went down. How good does the verse trade look right now? I mean, they're they're loaded for bear on draft capital like this rebuild has been really impressive.

3:36 They're not wrong.

3:37 Andrew Barry is really in his bag, dude. And to your point, airdrop a quarterback into this. And for everybody that didn't because I just want to for us to stretch just a little bit, Fitzy. people didn't give Denzel Boston enough love in the pre-draft process. That can also be true. He shouldn't have fallen to the second round.

3:55 Fitz just has a soft spot for the Browns. Cause he was in college back when he watched Jim Brown play. So he's always really liked that. Oh my, I couldn't help it. On the other side of this one fits. Is there any sort of fancy takeaway on this from the Steelers? Like Roman Wilson, 60 yards in a touchdown, you know, 60 plus yards in a touchdown in his last two games. Um, You know, he's only had six targets in each of those games. Anything there? Anything anywhere else on the Steeler side of things you want to hit?

4:23 DK Metcalf, I think, has been getting a lot of shade, and we should probably remember that he's pretty good and probably is a fantasy starter most weeks.

4:31 Jalen Warren, really good.

4:32 Like, he needs to be the lead guy, not Rico Dowdle, man. He's just so much better than Rico.

4:37 And... Yeah. Yeah. The other thing I want to take away from this, too, is Michael Pittman Jr. I think is close to, if not droppable. He's not part of the offense. There's a definitive coverage reason why he's not part of the offense, because he's going to be their two-high beater, and they have played nothing but single-high teams.

5:21 But to that point, crap ton of single-high teams still on the left on the ledger in the upcoming weeks. So whether it's the foot injury or the coverage stuff, he has not been a part of this offense, but also Darnell Washington, maybe touchdown or bus streamer moving forward. Like his red zone involvement has been insane.

5:40 Two catches for 15 yards for Michael Pittman, by the way, just to, to give us that line. All right, let's get into our key questions here for week four, the rest of the slate, a reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tears can be found at fantasy pros.com slash rankings. We have a London game guys.

5:55 I think it's six of the next seven weeks. If I'm not mistaken that we have one of these early window games, 9 30 a.m eastern uh obviously you know 6 30 a.m pacific so that's a tough one for the west coasters colt's at commanders is this first one the commanders impressed against the seahawks defense last week pulling off the upset over the defending super bowl champs can the offense stay hot with marcus mariotta in london against the colts.

6:20 D bro yes i absolutely think you can uh mariotta played out of his mind last week i think he's uh A fantastic streaming option at quarterback, much less like, I think he could be a top 12 quarterback this week. The Colts defense has been God awful. He was QB 13 last week, Marietta was, and he didn't even run.

6:39 And we know that like, that's basically like his best asset. Terry McLaurin, Stefan digs, like all the parts or pieces for the commander's offense are really in a good spot here. Like if Jacory Krosky merit does gets another 15 to 17 opportunities, it gets the end zone. Like he's an RB too. So yeah, I don't want to say this is a stardom-if-you-got-em kind of commander's game, but this game could be a low-key shootout because I don't think either of the defenses on either side can offer pushback.

7:07 Fitz, what do you make of the Colts' defense as a matchup for fantasy managers? Just in terms of first two weeks, they face the Ravens and the Chiefs, and that's going to be really difficult for a lot of defenses. In week three, they face the Texans. That's going to be pretty easy for a lot of defenses. they probably, the truth is that they end up somewhere in the middle, but where are they at in your opinion in terms of a defense to be going up against with your fantasy players?

7:29 I don't think they're in the middle.

7:30 I think they're near the bottom and the Texans just made them look respectable. And I know the Chiefs and Ravens are really tough matchups, but yeah, Colts defense right now, 31st in yards allowed per play, 6.5 yards per play. Only the Cardinals are worse and only by a smidge. Colts are 30th in defensive DVOA, 30th against the run 28th against the pass their linebackers i think are the worst in the league um and so yeah the two guys i think i'm most excited about for the commanders this week looks like there's a good chance rashad white misses this game with the shoulder injury so this could be a pretty good spot for jacory krosky merits even though he has not had a run of longer than 11 yards this season and is averaging only three yards

8:13 per carry and then uh stefan digs like the Colts have really been getting worked over by slot receivers so far. And I don't think that means you can't play Terry McLaurin. I think he's a reasonable play, too. Like Sauce Gardner isn't a matchup to be feared anymore. But Diggs, the Colts have been getting pummeled pretty good by slot receivers.

8:36 To your point also, Fitzy, about Bill, I'm not saying that Bill has played well. This is a big offensive line problem for the Colts. That's the problem with Bill. Dude, he has the second highest rate of all running backs to at least 20 carries of getting hit at or behind the line. But to the point, the Colts have given up the fifth most yards before contact per attempt.

8:56 So he might have some running lanes.

8:57 In this game.

8:58 And it's not ideal that I think the commanders have already rolled out Sam Cosme for this game. So, yeah, not a good offensive line, but weakness against weakness.

9:09 We've been bringing it up all week, but just to throw it out there, Ja'Cory Carrasco-Mary did have a 48-yard touchdown run called back on a penalty. So those numbers would have looked even better or different against Seattle last week if that had stood. D-Bro, Stephon Diggs, why does he have a 31? Too high, too low, just right?

9:26 Too low. Too low, too low, too low. I've got him. I'm going to be above consensus right now. Where do I have Diggs? Uh, Stefan Diggs, I've got him at wide receiver 28. So just a shade above, but I, if we flip over the cards, like depending, because we also need some injury stuff, like some clarity on some players.

9:45 So like when it's all said and done for final Sunday rankings, he might be like borderline, like blow in wide receiver too. And I'm not going to be surprised if he produces as a wide receiver too, because just for everybody at home right now, Stefan Diggs is the wide receiver. 17 and fancy points per game.

10:02 Let's go to game number two Titans at Ravens. We all kind of expect, at least I hope you all kind of expect that the Ravens are going to roll in this one. So just for fun, let's predict Derek Henry stat line. For his first ever game facing the Titans, a bit of a revenge game here. He has talked about this week that, you know, he doesn't view it in that light. It's just, you know, another week. And he has, you know, a lot of respect and love for his time there. But still, it's his first time facing the team that didn't want to resign him. So I think we can maybe have some fun with this. Debra, I'll start with you. What's his stat line going to look like?

10:31 So one of the few things the Titans have actually done is play run defense. They're allowing the fourth lowest explosive run rate, 13th lowest Russian success rate, 7th lowest zone yards per carry. and Derrick Henry almost 58% zone runs. Now, all that being said, Derrick Henry is probably going to sniff in the neighborhood of 20 opportunities in this game.

10:53 I'll give him, I'll go high-level view here. I'll give him 20 touches, 95 total yards, and he gets to the end zone at least once.

11:01 Yeah, the amount of work he gets in this one, I think, is interesting fits, because on the one hand, you could say, okay, the Ravens want to really let Henry show out against his former team. On the other hand, They need him for the long haul, and this feels like a game where if they go up early, maybe they can dial it down because he's been getting tons of touches. He has two games already this season through three weeks with at least 24 carries. I would imagine that they would like to lower that number a bit if they can, at least early in the year, and kind of save him a bit for December. What do you think the stat line is going to look like?

11:30 I'll say pretty good volume, 129 rushing yards, one touchdown.

11:36 Okay, so a big week.

11:37 Yeah.

11:37 And by the way, uh, I was just revisiting the Titans years for Derrick Henry. Um, so eight, eight seasons, 93 touchdowns. And, um, I mean, obviously Derrick Henry is going to wind up in the hall of fame, but like, can you imagine what the career might've looked like if he hadn't been the backup to DeMarco Murray.

11:56 For his first two seasons?

11:58 He had four, four starts in his first two years in the league because DeMarco Murray was ahead of him. And he only started when DeMarco Murray was banged up. Um, But then once he got going in, what, 2018, his first year as a starter, six seasons, his last six years with the Titans, five 1,000-yard rushing seasons, including that 2,000-yard rushing season in 2020. And the only miss was in 2021 when he broke his foot in Week 8.

12:24 At the time, he had 937 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns through eight weeks.

12:33 And just so everybody remembers too kindly, in 2018, he was also splitting work with Deion Lewis.

12:38 And Deion Lewis, yeah.

12:39 So things that should have never happened to Derrick Henry.

12:42 That 2018, or sorry, that 2021 season where he got hurt, where he played eight games fits, he still finished as the RB16 on the season. He played half the year.

12:52 He was off to such a good start.

12:54 Can I just say that, like, I honestly don't know if we've ever respected Derrick Henry enough, as much respect as we're giving him, like, right here, because how many years... in the fantasy community was like, Oh, he doesn't catch passes. He doesn't catch enough passes. Oh, Derek Henry. And, and we're like, Oh, but he's not in the reusing the receiving game. And Derek Henry is just a savage man.

13:15 Yeah. I always kind of scoff a little when I hear talking heads say like, Oh, Derek Henry is like the last, you know, great hall of fame running back. Cause the people don't care about the running game anymore. I'm like, listen, Jameer Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are amazing. Like there are other guys coming through who, who could be on this level, but it is just so fun to watch a hall of famer. Who's like in his thirties, still basically borderline playing like his prime is really cool.

13:38 Gibbs and Bijan are modern NFL running backs, like personified. Whereas Derrick Henry is a throwback to the 1970s thrown into the modern era.

13:47 And it's kind of fun to watch. Yeah.

13:50 Oh, it's amazing to watch. I, I just threw my hands up about three or four years ago and I was just like, okay, fine. Derrick Henry is an RB1 and he is an outlier until he decides.

14:00 I need to see it not work before I'm going to bet on it not working. And it's cool. Just him and Lamar in the same backfield has been absolutely as cool as everybody expected.

14:08 I mean, still this year, he's still 11th amongst running backs in yards after contact per attempt. It's insane.

14:16 He's absurd.

14:16 It's insane.

14:17 All right, let's go to what might be a closer game here. Patriots at Bills. Drake May has had a nightmare start to the season. He's QB 31 through three weeks. Consensus rankings haven't punished him too much yet, though. He's QB 14 in ECR. Is that too high, too low, or just right for May against this Bills defense, Fitz?

14:36 I am at QB 12. I still think Drake May is good at football. I get that people are frustrated, the Drake May investors. There are people in the Fantasy Pros Discord community asking me if they should start Kirk Cousins over Drake May this week. And they seem unsatisfied when I tell them that I would still start May. And, like, of course Cousins could absolutely outscore May this week, but I'm making the bet on May 11 times out of 10 over Cousins. And I don't want to make too many excuses for May. He has not been good this year, but did have a brutal road matchup against Seattle in Week 1. That's the toughest matchup you can have for a quarterback. Wasn't really that bad against Pittsburgh in Week 2.

15:18 Only needed to throw 22 passes. Didn't have any touchdowns, so statistically unsatisfying. And then last week, yeah, just a terrible game against the Jaguars. And I do think not having A.J. Brown is a limiting factor, and his offensive line hasn't played well. They've kind of picked up where they left off in the playoffs last year. But I still think May is good. He still has the running ability.

15:40 I mean, is Kirk Cousins going to get you any rushing production? Like, May had a 21-yard touchdown run wiped out by a holding penalty last week. And this week, I think what you like about Drake May is that the Patriots are going to have to try to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills. And the Bills are going to be without Christian Benford, their best cover man.

16:02 So I do think there's a ray of hope for Drake May this week.

16:06 Drake May... looks broken on some level D bro. And yet I feel like just on principle, if you're in any kind of league that values quarterbacks, super flex format dynasty, whatever, it just feels like he on principle is probably a smart person to try and buy at a low cost because the upside, even if there's no guarantee that he gets to that upside this season, the upside is just so immense for a player like this.

16:29 Yeah.

16:30 I don't disagree with that. I think in any dynasty format, I don't know anybody that's going to be selling him low enough to like get rid of him. Like, I know Fitzy, if we have him in any leagues, you're not getting rid of him, as most people do. Because, again, we're only four weeks into the season, or we will be four weeks after Sunday into the season. So it's a small sample size. No, A.J. Brown is doing a lot of disservice for Drake May, but he is not playing well. He's pressing. But to say all of this, I think there is a ray of hope that Fitzy laid out here perfectly. No Christian Benford. Does a ton of things for Drake May and the coverage matchup for him this week. You have two receivers in Romeo Dobbs

17:10 and Mac Hollins that are very good against too high. And so looking at the coverage matchup for Drake May, like I'm at ECR right now. I've got him at QB 14. But I mean, you tell me he's a QB one this week trying to keep pace with Josh Allen. I'm not hating that at all.

17:25 You you two and I are in a dynasty league together that where I have Drake May and Justin Herbert as my two quarterbacks and somehow. Thank you, Kenneth. I have two wins this season. But with those two, a quarterback every week, it has been really painful.

17:40 I see your quarterback situation and I'll show you mine. And mine's way worse than that league, by the way.

17:45 Yeah.

17:45 Losing Jackson Dart did me no favors.

17:47 Yeah, I wasn't going to call you out for that. The winner of the Fantasy Football Championship Belt giveaway is CookDaddy29. Please get in touch with our customer support agents at mailbag at fantasypros.com with a screenshot of your YouTube account page while logged in. Once we confirm it's you, we'll get you your prize again. Congrats to CookDaddy29. If you want a chance to give your fantasy league the ultimate championship upgrade, courtesy of our good friends at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, then this is your shot. We are now giving away a 26 to 36 inch custom football trophy. It's a massive centerpiece built to make your league championship feel like a

18:26 big deal. And the best part, you can make it your own. Choose your topper, personalize the center and front plaques, customize the columns and create a trophy that represents your league. To enter, all you need to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any of our videos and that is it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel So be sure to turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim your prize. All right.

18:52 Next game up, guys. Jets at Bears. Just an easy one here. Where are you guys ranking Braylon Allen as the Jets starting running back this week against the Bears? We expected Breesaw to not play. That has been official now. Made official. He's ruled out for this game. So where is Braylon Allen ranked for you, D-Bro?

19:07 RB19. I just look at him as a volume-based RB2 with a good matchup in this one and You know, I love the way that Braylon Allen's always categorized as, like, a big thumper. Like, dude, he doesn't run to his size. He hasn't since college. Like, he doesn't break a ton of tackles. This year he has zero explosive runs, 1.89 yards of contact per attempt. So, like, the per-touch efficiency I don't think is going to be amazing for Braylon Allen, however long he keeps this starter's chair for the Jets until Brees is back. But the matchup is awesome, man. Like, the Bears still can't stop the run. Ninth highest explosive run rate. Highest rushing success rate. So I think Braylon Allen's sniffing somewhere in like the 15 to 18 opportunities category.

19:50 And if he gets into the end zone this week, he'll be probably a top 15 back just based off volume.

19:56 He's RB21 in the half PPR consensus rankings here. Fitz, unlike my joke about you watching Jim Brown in college, you actually did watch a lot of Braylon Allen in college because he is a Wisconsin Badger. What are your thoughts on sort of his early career so far and what you expect to see out of him?

20:11 Yeah, Debro nailed it.

20:12 Like, Allen is the 235-pound back who sometimes thinks he's a 200-pound back and would rather elude.

20:19 Guys than run over them. And it's funny, though.

20:21 Every once in a while, he'll remember how big he is and just bury some poor cornerback who's coming up to try to make a tackle on him. And that's always fun to watch. But yeah, like I'm a little lower than Debra. I'm at RB21. And I guess I have no beef with RB19. I think that could be spot on. The question is just how much are the Jets going to mix in Isaiah Davis? Because we had heard Aaron Glenn talk about this maybe being a three headed backfield before the season. Isaiah Davis has only played special teams so far this season. No offensive snaps. Now that's going to change this week because they're going to need someone to occasionally relieve Braylon Allen. But how occasional?

21:05 Because the matchup is good. I know the Bears haven't been quite the defensive pushover. People expected them to be in the Eagles' offense. Made the Bears' defense look very good last Monday night. But this is still not a very good Chicago defense yet. The bears are 28th and DVO against the run. They're giving up 4.8 yards per carry to running backs. Pretty good matchup for Braylon Allen.

21:26 And maybe he does get like 20 touches entirely possible.

21:33 Yeah.

21:33 And in the fourth quarter, Fitzy, he played 72% of the snaps. I think you're going to see around like a 65, 70% snap rate for Braylon Allen. And to your point, the only reason I have him at RB 19 is, is more of like just a state of the running back position. Like, I don't know if Aaron Jones holds up another week with an 80% snap count, Bucky Irving. How much does he play? Amorian Hampton game scripted out David Montgomery dealing with Woody Marks. Like I think Braylon Allen, I feel really good about his volume workload.

22:04 That's the only reason I have him as high as I do. And the matchup.

22:08 It, It might be surprising to some. I mean, we remember how young he came into the league. Still only 22 years old, Braylon Allen. He's going to be 22 the entire season. He won't turn 23 until January.

22:16 He was the youngest player at any position in his draft class. Yeah.

22:20 Couldn't even drink. Couldn't even drink and, you know, getting NFL paychecks.

22:24 I also find it surprising. I'm looking at his like career stats right now that he only has four rushing touchdowns in his career because I feel like it has happened more often that I want a Brees Hall touchdown and I look up and it's Braylon Allen. But I guess it hasn't actually happened that often. It's just in my head. I just remember the times it does happen.

22:39 It's funny because he could play Derrick Henry in a movie, but he doesn't run like Derrick Henry.

22:44 Yeah.

22:44 No, no.

22:45 Braylon Allen has always been a dancing bear going back to college where you're just like, bro, Lower your shoulder. And he's like, but I can juke move.

22:53 I can jump cut.

22:53 And it's like, no, no, dude, you can't.

22:55 Don't do that.

22:56 Let's go to maybe the best game on the Sunday slate. Jags at Bengals. The total 51 and a half and a spread of just two and a half points. So a very fun game that we're expecting. So just have fun with this. Give me a final score prediction and a player of the game fits.

23:11 I'll say Duvall pulls this one out in a nail biter. 24 to 23 comes down to the last possession.

23:19 And player of the game, I'll say Trevor Lawrence.

23:23 He's been pretty good, hasn't thrown 30 passes in a game yet this season, so the fantasy stance are not eye-popping. But I think Liam Cohen gives Trevor the opportunity to let his hair down, so to speak, in this game. Throws 35 or more times and has 300 plus yards and three TDs.

23:40 That's my prediction.

23:42 I feel like this game will tell us a lot about actually kind of both of these teams. But really the Jags is what I'm looking at because yes, they have a couple of blowout wins this season. It was against week one, Deshaun Watson, and it was against a really struggling Drake May. And then they lost pretty handedly, you know, in Denver, which is a tough place to play.

23:58 I feel like we don't quite know just how good this Jags team can be yet. And playing at Cincy, I think will give us a better idea of that. Debro, what do you expect out of this game?

24:07 I was just waiting for you to make some kind of hair joke. I felt like I was going to catch a stray after.

24:11 So no, I got all my snarky jokes out of the way towards Fitz already.

24:15 Yeah. Yeah.

24:16 OK.

24:16 All right.

24:16 All right.

24:17 Well, I'll wait for later in the show because I know it's coming. You're going to get let me let my guard down. But dude, I think this game is going to be a shootout. I'm going to just go high watermark here. I think it's thirty one twenty eight and I am taking the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think that they win this game and I'll go with the low hanging fruit for a team that hasn't been pushed. to have a monster output on offense yet, or at least going to counter punch and go back and forth with the team yet. I think we're going to see a blow up game for Parker Washington. I think we're due for it. And the matchup also leans itself that way.

24:50 Like we know DJ Turner's is lurking on the outside. So Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas, Jr. Josh Cameron, good luck. Parker Washington versus Cincinnati in the slot. Cincinnati has quietly given up the seventh most yards per target and the seventh most fantasy points per opportunity to opposing slot receivers.

25:06 Jalen Davis, their slot corner, has not been good. He's quietly been terrible. Amongst 25 qualifying slot corners, he's given the 11th highest EPA per target up and the fourth highest step of separation. So I think this is where we finally see Parker Washington erupt with a 100-yard game and multiple scores.

25:25 Yeah, that would be really fun and I think very possible in this one.

25:29 Gladstone, get that contract done, man. That price is only going up.

25:34 Yeah. Where is Parker Washington ranked? I mean, obviously everybody's starting him, but just out of curiosity, where is he ranked?

25:40 Oh, I've got him aggressive.

25:44 He's inside the top 10 in ECR.

25:46 Wide receiver seven right now.

25:48 He's wide receiver nine in ECR. Fitz, where is he for you?

25:51 10 for me. And I might have to come up. I hate being below ECR on Parker Washington.

25:55 Yeah. It doesn't feel fun right now to be below. On him. Let's go to Cowboys at Texans. This should be a matchup of strength on strength with the Cowboys offense facing the Texas defense, though. Houston hasn't really lived up to their end of the bargain so far this season with their defense. How do you see this game playing out? High scoring back and forth affair or more slower, lower scoring game fits?

26:16 Can I go somewhere in the middle?

26:18 Like I know the Texans haven't been great defensively, but I've no doubt this is still one of the best defenses in the league. So it's strength against strength when the Cowboys have the ball. Um, but it's kind of weakness against weakness when the Texans have the ball, the Houston offense might be slightly better than last year, but still isn't good. And the Dallas defense, it has the potential to be better than it was last season, but it's, it's a really banged up unit right now, especially in the backend. Maybe Joey Porter suits up for the Cowboys this week. I don't know how many snaps he would play when he's just learning Christian Parker system. Um, You know, Nico Collins possibly back for the Texans, which would further

26:58 stress that beaten-up Dallas secondary. And, yeah, I want to see if George Pickens can get it going in this game. Pretty tough matchup. Maybe this isn't the weekend for Pickens to break out, but his investors, I know, are growing impatient.

27:15 Where are you ranking Pickens, Fitz, before we toss it to Debro? Because he's wide receiver 15 in ECR. I'm right on.

27:20 That's where I am. I'm on ECR.

27:22 Okay. Yeah, it's been frustrating for me. His three finishes so far this season have been a wide receiver 66, wide receiver 41, and wide receiver 27. Really, he hasn't had no touchdowns yet, which there's only so much you can do to overcome that with catches and yards. D-Bro, where are you at on this game?

27:38 I've got the answers for all of this. George Pickens breakout week, baby. I'm calling it right now. I think he's going to have a monster game, and this all goes to the coverage stuff. And the reason George Pickens hasn't had a monster game, if you look at the coverage splits between him and CeeDee Lamb– Over the last few years between single high and two high CD Lam is a two high guy. Dallas has played a lot of two high teams thus far. George Pickens is going to erupt because the Houston Texans play single high at the third highest rate, 67% in the NFL George Pickens this year versus single high 54% target per route run rate, 3.54 yards per route run. If you combine this year and last year as well, people want a larger sample.

28:22 George Pickens versus single high 30% target per route run rate, 3.56 yards per route run. He eats it alive. You can even go back to Steelers splits and George Pickens had it then too. So I think this is the Pickens game. I think this is going to be a high scoring affair with the fact that Nico Collins is back in this game is massive for the Texans ability to try to keep pace with the Cowboys in this game.

28:47 If he wasn't in this game, then I would be much more of like, Does this total need to come down just a little bit? But I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair.

28:56 Who do you prefer, D-Bro, between Nico or Pickens, if you could only start one this week?

29:00 Pickens.

29:01 Let's rank this at the top 15 for Pickens.

29:02 It's quarterback play, man. I'm either taking back or CJ Stroud. I'm taking back.

29:07 Pickens one spot ahead of Nico.

29:09 The one thing that worries me about the Cowboys, though, and D-Bro makes the good point about coverage, but we haven't seen... Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter just wreck a game for an opposing offense yet? And those guys are capable of that in any week where it's just the opposing quarterback has zero time to throw and none of the pass catchers are going off because the quarterback is under such duress.

29:33 Nico, based on the are they playing tool of fantasypros.com, 81% chance to play. We're expecting him to play, but that's a nice tool. if anybody is ever trying to make those early week decisions. I need to tell everybody about this new prediction market called PolyMarket. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms.

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30:32 ranking him rest of season, Fitz?

30:35 I'm at RB11 this week and RB11 rest of season. And I do realize those are pretty conservative rankings. The Giants were terrible against the run last year. I think they might be more of a neutral matchup this year. They were pretty good against Javante Williams in week one, sort of got run over by the Rams in week two, but the Giants offense wasn't doing its part to keep the Rams offense off the field in that game. And then the Giants just stuffed the Titans running game last week, although that's really no great feat. So the Giants, their run defense currently 10th in DVOA. I think that's falsely high, but last year they were dead last and they're better than that this year. And then RB11 for Jeremiah Love,

31:18 rest of season might be conservative, but the Cardinals really don't have any incentive to give Love 20 to 25 touches a week when they're still in sort of come-up mode and not really contending.

31:30 For anything this year.

31:31 Although Michael LaFleur does seem to have the Kyle Shanahan gene where he just can't stop giving his lead guy that many. I mean, we saw Jeremiah Love get way too much work in his first preseason game.

31:43 And plus, at some point.

31:46 we might get a prolonged Carson Beck audition at quarterback late in the season, which might not be positive for the Arizona offense.

31:57 Debra, where are you at on love? By the way, just in terms of the consensus rankings, he's RB 10 for this week, RB 13 rest of season. So Fitz just behind consensus for this week, just ahead of consensus rest of season.

32:10 I've got him at RB 14 for this week and rest of season. I have my RB 15. And I just want to give Fitz flowers to lead this off of what I'm going to discuss about love. We, we, we kind of batted it back and forth last week about like, why is Jeremiah love? And I gave the Cardinals all, you know, both barrels. And I was like, so idiotic, blah, blah, blah, blah. Apparently it was just the injury because he was a bell cow last week.

32:33 So shout out to Fitzy for being ahead of the curve on that one. I was behind, but dude, I, I will be at consensus or above on Jeremiah Love like right now and rest of season. So I need to come up on my ranking because to Fitzy's point, I don't, I'm not scared of the Giants run defense, man. They've given up the seventh highest explosive run rate and the sixth highest rushing success rate. I think this is another game where Jeremiah Love has a really good outing and he is the clear bell cow apparently. So while rest of season, I do have concerns about the Cardinals offense.

33:05 The only thing where Fitz and I differ right now is like if they, stay competitive i think we see brissette for the rest of the year are barring an injury like i don't think carson beck is is a long-term answer quarterback.

33:17 Neither do i but that schedule is brutal like they can be a respectable team and still only win like four games this year and i just feel like at some point there's no incentive not to give carson back a couple of starts you know what i mean just to see what you're what sort of hand you're holding before next year's draft.

33:36 Debra, did you say you want to be above consensus on Love?

33:39 I do.

33:40 He's RB10. Jalen Warren was RB9, so he's already played, obviously. And then it's like kind of the eight usual suspects ahead of him. Gibbs, Robinson, Walker, McCaffrey, Henry, Taylor, Cook, and Jenty. So I'm not sure how much higher you can really move him unless you want to knock down one of those bigger names.

33:55 I mean, I would say I'm more concerned about Gentee and Spaggs trying to just take away the run and stuff because it's like the two pillars of the Raiders offense. OK, Bowers and Gentee take those away. And what do you have left to beat us? So I'm probably going to drop Gentee and I'll, you know, I'll kind of sift through the rest of this and stuff. But I do think Love has a massive game this week.

34:15 OK, let's go to Rams at Eagles. The Eagles looked bad against the Bears defense that we all expected to be one of the worst in football this season. On a scale from 1 to 10, what is your panic level on Philly right now? Can they bounce back against a good Rams team, D-Bro? 6.5.

34:31 That's about where I'm at. And I'm more worried about the defense than I am about the offense. And I know that sounds kind of strange, but I think Jalen Hurts learning this new playbook and all the parts and pieces in between, I think that we're going to see a better improved offense as we move through the season as opposed to what we're seeing right now. But on the other side of it, like Philly, outside of Tariq Wolin and Quinion on the outside, what are they doing well? Like, the run defense has improved some. The middle of the field, they're not defending it well. Cooper Dejean is playing some really rough football right now, and they don't have a pass rush. So I'm more worried about, like, this vaunted

35:10 Eagles defense that we were expecting coming into the season that has a crap ton of talent hasn't really played up to the bar yet.

35:18 Fitz?

35:19 I'm in a seven. Um.

35:22 I'm glad Debro pointed out the fact that maybe we should give the Eagles a little bit of grace early in the season because they are like the offensive MO is just changing. It's not just different play calling. It's like trying to have Jalen Hurts play under center more.

35:39 That's a change.

35:39 It's probably going to take some time to take hold. The part that worries me is that Like the Eagles offensive line is just they used to have one of the best offensive lines, if not the best offensive line in the league. I don't even know if it's average right now. Like so far this year, it's been below average.

35:58 The Eagles ranked 24th in the run blocking metric adjusted line yards, and they are 26th in the pass blocking metric adjusted sack rate. And I know they are putting in a new scheme to moving on from their old offensive line coach, Jeff Stoutland. And supposedly, like, it's an easier scheme for them to digest. There's less for the offensive linemen to read pre-snap. But man, so far, the performance has just been pretty disappointing. And maybe no Devontae Smith this week. I know he wasn't practicing as of Thursday.

36:32 So boy, going up against a good Rams defense might have to ratchet up the panic meter just a little higher after this game.

36:42 And to your point, Fitzy, like no Smith this week, no Dallas Goddard still out like that. Missing some of your most talented players. Also, Makai Lemon not being there for preseason and training camp. And you could see it in the data. The Eagles are still kind of struggling. Like, how do we best utilize this player? So they're trying to figure it out real time of like, how do we deploy this guy? It's a lot of moving around chess pieces around the board for the Eagles right now.

37:08 Yeah, so you guys were a six and a half and a seven. When I put together this question, I was thinking about a six for myself. So we're all kind of in the same range here. And I mean, it's really like this isn't meant to be a knock on Jalen Hurts. It's just when you think about the strength of the Eagles team as they've been so good the last few years, it's the offensive line and the defense.

37:24 The defense has not lived up to expectations. The offensive line, like you said, Fitz, has been not right bad. And so if those are sort of the pillars of your organization and they're not performing, I think it's fair to have some level of maybe panic's too strong a word, but concern certainly. Just quickly before we move off this game, where are you guys ranking Dontavian Wicks with all the other players out?

37:43 And I don't think that– I think Devonta Smith has all been pretty much ruled out for winning the game this week.

37:50 Seems pretty unlikely plays. I– Dontavian Wicks.

37:57 By the way, Devonta Smith in our Are They Playing tool, 15% chance. And I think that will go down today. Like I bet he gets ruled out today.

38:04 Dontavian Wicks, I'm probably– He's going to be in the wide receiver three category for me. Like, I'm going to have him swimming somewhere in the same pool of, like, Stefan Diggs, Emeka Ibuka, Jamo, somewhere around there. So somewhere in, like, the wide receiver 28 to 30 kind of category.

38:23 He's wide receiver 39 right now, so you're going to be well ahead.

38:25 But I think he could be a wide receiver two this week based off a target volume. Like, who else is catching the freaking ball?

38:29 I've got him 39, and I will not come up.

38:32 Like, ECR is going to come up on him when Devonta– Smith is scratched. I'm not coming up. That's as high as I can go with this offense. Looking the way it has.

38:41 Okay.

38:42 It's time for fresh from the oven takes brought to you by DiGiorno. Just like a pizza fresh out of the oven. These takes are hot, fresh, and ready for Monday night. Let's break down the matchup. I for one am super excited about the Falcon Saints rivalry matchup we're getting on Monday. And I can't wait to sit on the couch watching Bijan Robinson torch defenders all night long.

39:03 My hot take for this one. Both offenses stay as hot as a fresh-from-your-oven pizza, and each team ends up scoring over 30 points in a barn burner. And while the Stars are dominating on the field, I'll be dominating the Monday night dinner game with DiGiorno. I'm a pepperoni guy myself, but whatever taste you're looking for, make sure you fill your freezer ahead of time by stocking up on DiGiorno so you can level up your Monday night watching Drake London and Chris Alave both finish as top three receivers in fantasy this week. That's another hot take for you. These were your fresh from the oven takes brought to you by DiGiorno. Make Monday night pizza night with fresh from your oven taste. It's not delivery. It's DiGiorno.

39:42 Packers at Buccaneers next game up. Tampa Bay is without Baker Mayfield, of course, but the Packers have also been a train wreck this season. Sorry, Fitz. How interested are you in starting Emeka Egbuka this week, Pat? Because, I mean, again, it seems like it's the opposite of a, you know, unstoppable force meeting a movable object. This is a stoppable force meeting a very movable object.

40:02 In fairness, the Packers' defense was pretty good against the Vikings in Week 1 up until the very end, and against the Jets in Week 2, then fell apart against the Falcons, no question.

40:13 I've got a Bucco.

40:14 Wide receiver, 34, and I do kind of regret having ranked him one spot ahead of Denzel Boston. The chances with Jalen Daniels, and how weird is it that the first quarterback from the class of 2026 to make a start is the undrafted rookie free agent?

40:32 That's pretty wild. Sooner than Fernando Mendoza, the number one pick in the draft.

40:37 That is crazy.

40:38 So I've got Ibuka wide receiver 34.

40:39 I don't think there's a great chance of him getting five or more catches. It's all about whether he can make a big play or two.

40:48 You are exactly aligned with consensus. He is wide receiver 34 in ECR. Debro, where are you at?

40:54 I'm a little bit higher. I've got him at wide receiver 30. And this is only because... Egbuka has been playing way better football than his stat lines and his fantasy points per game suggest. Like right now amongst 88, or excuse me, 86 qualifying wide receivers, he's 19th in separation, 15th in route win rate. The problem with Egbuka is a Baker Mayfield problem. He has the 12th lowest amongst 88 qualifying wide receivers, the 12th lowest catchable target rate.

41:24 So I look at Jalen Daniels starting and I'm like, okay, he might not be amazing, but but I don't know if he can give Emeka Ibuka less catchable targets than Baker Mayfield's been doing. So, honestly, he might be an improvement this week. He might. Emeka Ibuka might see more catchable targets, and if that's the case, to Fitz's point, like, yeah, the Packers have been in a rollercoaster for a defense.

41:47 They're allowing the 12th most yards per target and the 6th most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers. This could quietly be a really good game for Emeka Ibuka, but again, like, this is assuming... at least league average quarterback play for Jalen Daniels, and that might be an assumption way too far.

42:04 That I'm making. So for you, D-Bro, I know the answer for Fitz, Egbuka or Dontavian Wicks. Who would you rather start?

42:10 Oh, Egbuka.

42:12 Okay, because you said he's about, you know, given where he's ranked, it's similar to where you said you were probably going to bump Wicks up to. But you'd rather have Egbuka?

42:20 Yeah, I've got him right above Wicks right now.

42:22 Okay.

42:22 Yeah. Before we get to the next game, Fantasy Pros users can now get 30 days of Betting Pros Premium absolutely free. Unlock powerful NFL betting tools, including the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Prize Picks Optimizer, and the brand new Parlay Wizard. You can even sync your sportsbooks to track all your bets live in one place. Start your exclusive 30-day free trial in the Betting Pros app or at bettingpros.com slash apps with code FP1MONTH. That's the number one not written out. That's bettingpros.com slash apps and promo code FP1MONTH.

42:54 Let's get to the late afternoon slate here, guys. Dolphins at Vikings. Ollie Gordon was the big waiver pickup of the week with Devon Achan out for the season. Now the Dolphins have to face an angry Brian Flores defense. Where is Gordon ranked for you this week, D-Bro?

43:09 Right now he is RB 36. And wherever ECR is come Sunday morning, I want to make sure I'm below it because I feel like we're going to get rug pulled with Ollie Gordon or is the least possible right now. He was the big waiver wire pickup because everybody's like, oh, he got all the work and stuff and blah, blah, blah.

43:27 He's going to be the starter. Jalen Wright was out, and he has been the RB2 on this depth chart. This week, Jalen Wright, who was out of that game with a foot injury and a stinger, had a limited practice to open the week and had a full practice. So I think that we're going to see Jalen Wright. He might be the starter for the Miami Dolphins this week, or at least at bare minimum, if he is active this splitting work with Ollie Gordon this week, because if you look just throughout the entirety of the season, like I know we've only gotten seven offensive snaps for Jalen Wright, but Ollie Gordon didn't get any offensive snaps. Um, excuse me, he got four offensive snaps in week one and he basically hasn't done anything. And he's been behind right the

44:07 entire time on the step chart. And Oh, by the way, Ollie Gordon hasn't been good since 2025. He has 1.84 yards at your contact per attempt at an 8% mistackle rate. So I think this could be a rug pull situation. I don't want to start Ollie Gordon. Fitz.

44:22 I don't know if I agree that Jalen Wright has always been the number two behind Devon H. And it seems like the Dolphins have kind of oscillated on that since 2025 when they drafted Ollie.

44:35 But like, it could be right.

44:37 I feel like the Dolphins don't know whether they like Jalen Wright or dislike Jalen Wright. And like, Gordon hasn't been good, but I don't think Jalen Wright's been particularly good either.

44:50 So, I agree, though.

44:52 It's a very ambiguous situation. Right now, I've got Ollie Gordon, RB34, and Wright, RB42. And I have no idea if that's right. And I really don't want to play either against the Brian Flores defense. I mean, the Vikings have allowed, I think, the sixth-fewest rushing yards.

45:10 And they're going to be.

45:11 We've talked about the revenge narrative with Brian Flores going against the team that fired him.

45:17 Oh, and not only did they fire him.

45:18 After three years as their head coach, they fired him and were later found to have been talking to Sean Payton about the head coaching job before they had fired Brian Flores. So, yes, Brian Flores is going to be dialing up everything and probably pulling everything out of his bag this week against the poor, undermanned Miami Dolphins who don't have Devon H.

45:38 In.

45:39 There is a morbid curiosity in watching this defense going up against the Dolphins offense. I mean, how many times in NFL history do we have a coach who is suing the other team who is already one of the blitz heaviest coaches in the NFL going up against a woefully undermanned offense like it is? going to be a sight to watch, honestly.

45:58 I think the implied Vegas total for Miami is 13 points, and that seems wildly aspirational.

46:04 I'll take the under. Are you guys interested in starting Malik Washington just in the idea, like a PPR league, in the idea he might get a lot of empty calorie catches?

46:12 Erickson brought this up that if you're going to blitz, I mean, that might mean Malik Willis going to his hot route guy a lot of the time, which is probably going to be Malik Washington. But that might mean a stat line, like six for 53. So I, I do have him sort of like, I think high end wide receiver for low end wide receiver three, somewhere in there playable, but maybe in PPR, not really in like standard or half PPR.

46:42 Would I be that interesting?

46:44 He's back to back in ECR with Dante Vinwix actually, uh, they're, uh, in that kind of late thirties ranking range.

46:52 Since we're going down the Malik Washington rabbit hole, can I give a little bit of shine to Chris Bell? Because if I'm going for a flex play out of one of these guys out of this past kitchen core, I'm firmly Chris Bell over Malik Washington. Malik Washington's been getting all these empty PPR calories in this high target share. Again, we have to monitor the news and stuff, and a lot of this comes down to the health of Chris Bell's knee. He had a 64% route share and a 19% target share last week. I think if his knee complies, we could be living in a world where the route share goes up yet again this week, and maybe he takes the 20% plus target share this week away from Malik Washington, and he's a decent flex play. Because while

47:36 Minnesota's been awesome on a defense, and they've been insane, they're also giving up the 11th most yards per target and the 10th most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers. So there is hope for Chris Bell.

47:46 A lot of that was against the Packers, where they were sending the house at Jordan Love. Love would manage to complete throws to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and there were only like three guys in the defensive backfield to try to tackle those dudes. So there were some huge plays in that week one game for the Packers.

48:01 I think that's kind of like skewing that stat. I just, I would much rather have the short, and generally, I agree, like Chris Bell would be the guy I'd probably want in season long more than Malik Washington, just because Washington, we know the upside isn't, really much of anything but against the Vikings like I want the short area receiver not the downfield guy.

48:23 Well to the point about Chris Bell a lot of crossers and stuff where he's just been asked to run away from guys so yeah yeah.

48:30 Next game Chiefs at Raiders a surprisingly fun one it's a three and oh record for the Raiders they're one of the early contenders for surprise stories of the year they now get their toughest matchup yet so far in the also undefeated Chiefs It felt to me when I was putting together the show sheet that most players in this game are either pretty obvious starts or pretty obvious sits.

48:48 So I just wanted to keep it simple. Go ahead and pick this game against the spread. Chiefs minus four and a half and the total 47 and a half. Fitz, I'll start with you.

48:55 I'm going to take the Raiders and the under. Like, I think they make this a game. And one of the reasons like Max Crosby has been playing so insanely well, the whole Raiders.

49:06 Defense, really.

49:07 And like, as well as the Chiefs have been playing, They are starting an undrafted rookie free agent at left tackle, and their right tackle is not especially good. And I think that could be a problem on the edges this week against the Raiders.

49:25 Debra?

49:27 I agree with Fitzy on the under. I'm taking the Chiefs, and I think they cover in this one. And this isn't like Raiders hate and stuff like that, but this is just going back again to the spags of it all. I think Spags, like for a defensive coordinator that prides himself on, like literally it's, I'm going to take away your best player. I'm going to do that. The Raiders have two pillars of this is their entire freaking offense is Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentry. So I'm not saying you can eliminate either one of those players fully from the game plan, but can you throw enough potholes on the road to where it makes it very difficult?

50:04 Yes.

50:04 And it's not like Kirk Cousins isn't a limited quarterback. So I think the Chiefs can cover. I think that this is probably an uglier game than a lot of people expect. And to the Max Crosby of it all, I think he's going to be in the backfield religiously staring down at Mahomes as he sacks him this week.

50:20 So Debra, are you like fading Brock Bowers in the rankings in anticipation of this? I mean, there's only so far you can knock him down.

50:26 There's only so far you can fade him. So I mean, like if you got him, you're starting him. But like he's going to get target volume. The question is, you know, how successful is he with that target volume? So.

50:37 Yeah. I mean, nobody has to make this decision, but like, would you rank him behind Trey McBride for this week or are you, I.

50:42 Mean, I got him behind Trey McBride, but I mean, you're talking about the top. Yeah.

50:46 Yeah. I mean, again, it's not really like an actionable bit of advice. I was just curious kind of where he falls for you.

50:50 Okay.

50:51 Let's go to the next game here. Chargers at Seahawks. Janarian price fumbled in week three against the commanders and never really had the chance to get going after that. Are you willing to start him against a struggling chargers team? He's ranked RB 30 and ECR for the week. He has not finished that high in any game this season.

51:06 He's been RB35, RB42, and RB70 in his first career games in the NFL. So is that RB30 ranking too high, D-Bro?

51:15 Hell yes. I'm not playing anybody from the Seattle backfield because the work has been split up three freaking different ways. And Jaron Price has put the ball on the ground two times in the last two games and found the doghouse. I don't want to play anybody from the Seahawks backfield at all because I don't know where the freaking ball is going.

51:32 Hold on. Let me ask you guys this.

51:35 So Jadarian Price missed practice Thursday with a chest injury. And I know he's been questionable with the chest injury. Wanda playing through it. I don't know if it was like exacerbated or whatever, or if it's just maybe he really is in fumble jail now because that was his second straight week with a fumble. So if Jadarian Price is inactive for this game, Would you be willing to start Emmanuel Wilson against the Chargers?

52:03 That I would do because also to your point, Fitzy, George Helani is on the injury report. So is he kind of dinged up? If we get that type of clarity, then yes, you can interest me in Emmanuel Wilson because also trust of the coaching staff. He did have the high volume week. And so proving trust. If we get more clarity, then yes, I will be in on Emmanuel Wilson.

52:23 But if Price is active and Helani is active, I don't want to.

52:28 Say we get no Jadarian price. How would you rank these three guys? Emmanuel Wilson, JK Dobbins, Alvin Camara.

52:37 Emmanuel Wilson over both of those guys. And then probably Camara ahead of Dobbins because Dobbins is going to get his early down work, but he gets no passing game work. And if he has no touchdown, then you're hating life.

52:50 So I think I'm with you. I think I'm with you there.

52:53 Yeah.

52:55 I think I'd rather start Dobbins than Kamara. I know that's not the main part of the question, which is the Seahawks side. Just on the chance that he gets a touchdown, it feels more likely to me.

53:03 But if he doesn't get that touchdown, you're getting five points and nothing.

53:06 Yeah, but what are you getting from Kamara?

53:08 He's been bad, but the 49ers, they're pretty beaten up up front. So maybe this is like there's a ray of hope for Dobbins.

53:15 Those guys are all back-to-back-to-back in consensus, by the way. Dobbins, Kamara, and Price. Obviously, the stand-in for your example is Wilson. But those guys are– back to back to back in UCR right now. Price did actually move down to RB 31. Are they playing tool on fantasy pros.com gives them like a 50, 50 chance of playing with the limited practice Wednesday.

53:32 And let's see what he does on Thursday. Yeah.

53:34 So that's something to keep an eye on for sure.

53:35 But to your point though, like Fitzy, like if price is out of this game, yeah. Emmanuel Wilson, he could get 20 opportunities in this game. Like that wouldn't be insane to see. We've seen it before already this year.

53:46 He's getting the goal line work for sure. Yeah.

53:49 Yeah. Yeah. Let's go to the next game here. Speaking of the Broncos, Broncos at 49ers. Jalen Waddell has either had a really big game or done absolutely nothing with no middle ground through his first three games with Denver. Is this week more likely to be another stud performance or another dud, D-Bro?

54:06 Well, let's talk about the real of it. He's done nothing in two of those three games because Bo Nix has been awful in all three of those games. So he's gotten high-end alpha target shares in two of those games outside of the week one wet fart that Davis Webb had. So I think Jalen Waddell has a fantastic game in this one. And this all just goes to, I don't believe the 49ers can cover the slot. They've given up the third most yards per target, fourth most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. You look at the coverage matchup, San Francisco's got single high at the eighth highest rate against single high since week two when Denver won. Sean Payton had to tap Davis Webb on the shoulder and say, hey, you remember we got Jalen Waddell, right?

54:45 Since week two, Jalen Waddell's had a 40% target per route run rate versus single high. So I think this is a good game for Jalen Waddell, assuming Bo Nix can get targets somewhere in the vicinity of Jalen Waddell.

54:58 Fitz, wide receiver 19, too high, too low, just right. What are you expecting?

55:01 I'm at wide receiver 24. I don't like what I've seen out of Nix so far, and I worry that wild inconsistency is going to be the new normal for Jalen Waddell. It gets concerning that I feel less good about Jalen Waddle every week than I did when he was playing with Tua Tungavailoa. You know, it's just, man, we thought he was going to be this great new toy for the Broncos.

55:24 And it's just been week two. It was great. I don't know. It's too early. Maybe I'm just being too much of a wet blanket on this. But I know I'm a little concerned about what I've seen from the Denver offense.

55:37 I've got him at wide receiver 19 too, Fitzy. And that, that more of a, well, I'll probably have to bump him up a little bit because I still have Devonta Smith in the ranks. So Waddle goes up to wide receiver 18 or 17, depending also about what we see from Jalen Coker, if he plays or not and stuff. So like, I'm not, I'm not far apart with you in the ranks. And I absolutely agree with you. Bo Nix has looked terrible this year.

56:02 So he's the guys I have him behind right now. The four guys I have in front of Jalen Waddle are Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Mike Evans, Jamison Williams. And I really like the situations and the matchups for Downs, Wilson, and Jamison Williams. And Evans is just going there out of respect.

56:23 Are those names deeper than when you hear them, like that you would strongly disagree with any of those or?

56:28 No, I mean, I don't necessarily disagree with any of those names. Like, the guys right ahead, Jalen Waddell, in my rankings right now, I've got Tedderow McMillan ahead of him. I've got DJ Moore, T. Higgins. Like, I think we're living in the same area code, Fitzy and I. And could I see a big game for Michael Wilson this week? Absolutely, because I'm not scared of the Giants' corners at all.

56:47 Any 12-team league, I think you're starting Jalen Waddell.

56:50 Yeah, you're starting him.

56:52 In a 10-teamer, you might be making flex... Decisions between Jalen Waddell and Bucky Irving or something.

56:59 Yeah. Or Jalen Waddell and DJ Moore or something like that.

57:03 Let's go to Sunday Night Football. Lions at Panthers. I keep talking about this in all the shows this week. I cannot remember the last time the Panthers hosted a Sunday Night Football game. So this is going to be kind of fun to see. These two defenses, it's also going to be fun because I think we're going to see a lot of points. The consensus total reflects that sort of attitude at 50 and a half. Last I looked, is there anybody in this game that you guys want to actually be fading relative to consensus since there's so many expectations for high scoring, D-Bro?

57:28 No, I'm not fading anybody. I think the one interesting player, and Fitzy kind of brought his name up a second ago, that I want to bring up in this because considering the start of the season, a lot of people are probably going to fade him as Jamison Williams. But JC Horn, IR. Mike Jackson, IR. Carolina has no corners.

57:45 Also....

57:47 Detroit has not been using Jamison Williams versus single high this year. He has, it's, he has an 11% target per route run rate. Carolina runs single high at the fifth highest rate. I think we see a bounce back game from JMO because Carolina, no healthy starting corners. Also JMO last year against single high bread and bread, bread, can't talk bread and butter. Apparently like, I mean, dude, single high last year for JMO, 22% target per route run rate. 2.31 yards per route run. So I think this is a big bounce back game for JMO. Fitz?

58:20 And I think the fantasy points data suite mentioned that, well, they've got JMO still top 20, I believe, in expected fantasy points, even though he's like wide receiver 55 and half point PPR scoring. There is no one I am seriously fading here. I'm one spot below consensus on Bryce Young. who has been great. He's averaging 313 passing yards a game.

58:44 He's thrown seven TD passes. He's QB6 in fantasy scoring right now. And the Lions have given up 979 passing yards and nine touchdown passes. They've given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. But there are some concerns with the Panthers' offensive line, which really struggled against the Browns' pass rush last week. Guard Damian Lewis is out with an elbow injury. That's kind of a key injury. And rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling has a concussion, so he probably won't play. That's what worries me about potentially short-circuiting Bryce Young. So I'm ranking Young as a low-end QB1 I think he's, what, QB 9 in consensus rankings.

59:27 I'm like, is he that high? Yeah, I think so. He's either 9 or 10, and I'm one spot lower on him in consensus.

59:33 He's currently 10.

59:34 All right, I'm at 11. Yeah.

59:37 Okay. I've got Bryce Young at QB 12. I share Fitz's concern and also add, what if Jalen Coker doesn't play this week? So there are some concerns about Bryce Young. Like, Fitzy, straight up right now. Bryce Young or Jordan Love? Who you got?

59:53 I do have, I think I've got Bryce Young like one spot higher.

59:59 Same. But if Coker gets ruled out, I'm moving Jordan Love above him.

1:00:03 Actually, I've got him two spots higher.

1:00:07 Matthew Stafford or Bryce Young? Young.

1:00:10 What about Young or Hertz? Because Hertz is behind him in consensus.

1:00:13 Young.

1:00:15 Over Hertz?

1:00:16 Yeah. Okay.

1:00:17 Hurts, the rushing production has not been great, and I feel like he is not comfortable playing under center as much as he has been.

1:00:23 Okay.

1:00:25 Before we get to the next game, I need to get your guys' prop bet cheat sheet picks for Sunday Night Football. We do this every week. Fitz, I'll start with you. What's your favorite bet from the prop bet cheat sheet this week for this game?

1:00:35 It's a three-star bet. Darren Waller going over two and a half receptions. We've got him projected for 3.1, and Detroit.

1:00:43 Has been getting clubbed. by tight ends this year.

1:00:47 They've given up, I mean, tons of receptions, tons of yardage, and they have given up touchdown catches to six different tight ends, including the likes of Jeremy Ruckert and Dawson Knox. So yeah, Darren Waller over two and a half receptions this week.

1:01:03 Really, Debra, I should have gone to you first because you guys are handholding on this and you did get to the sheet first and say that you also like Darren Waller.

1:01:10 We could dance down the same golden path here. I'm totally with it with Fitzy. Like, Darren Waller over 26 and a half receiving yards, three-star bet. And we got a projector for 29 receiving yards. I think that projection is also going to go up depending on what happens with Jalen Coker, if he's in or he's out. So you need to head and go bet the overs for both these immediately. As well as like Fitzy's talking about Detroit.

1:01:34 You could go bet the anytime touchdown for Darren Waller too. Just all the Darren Waller bets this week because Detroit has given up the most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends and the six most yards per target to the position. So Yes, Darren Waller. He might not be a rap god, but he's going to be very good in fantasy this week.

1:01:50 Those are our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football, courtesy of the Betting Pros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Find the best NFL player prop bets with the Betting Pros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props. All right, guys, Monday Night Football, fun game, Falcons at Saints. I'm really looking forward to this one. A couple of great receivers in this game, especially with Chris Alave and Drake London, both ranked inside the top six at the position this week in ECR.

1:02:22 Let me get an updated to exactly where they are. Alave wide receiver for London is wide receiver six. Who do you guys like better in this one? Debra, I'll start with you.

1:02:30 Alave. I'm just taking the better quarterback. Alave is, dude, just set your watch by him. He's freaking good this year. Yeah, I'm going Alave.

1:02:41 I think that's fair. I also do think that Michael Penix will throw the ball maybe a billion times to Drake London in every game they play.

1:02:48 You're not wrong.

1:02:49 What do you think, Fitz? Who do you like better?

1:02:51 So I've got Alave at wide receiver four, London at wide receiver five. The Falcons' defense has been an extreme pass funnel this season. Opponents have thrown on the Falcons on 72.2% of their offensive snaps. No other defense has had opponents throw on them more than 68% of the time. Atlanta has faced an average of 43.3 pass attempts per game.

1:03:17 The Falcons enter Week 4 having given up a league-high 604 receiving yards to wide receivers, and Chris Olave already leads the NFL in targets with 36%. And now he's going up against this extreme pass funnel defense. Oh, and by the way, the Falcons' best cover man, A.J. Terrell, on injured reserve. So I've got to go a lave here.

1:03:35 But as for London, he has now played 13 career games with Michael Penix Jr. In those 13 games, mind you, well under a full season worth of football, 91 catches, 1,356 yards, and 8 touchdowns.

1:03:50 You can find stats like that with or without them tool, fantasypros.com, where you can see the splits with different players in the field and what does Drake London do when Michael Penix is playing, stuff like that. You can see more cool stats like Fitz just dropped there. Who do you guys like to win this game, by the way? I just think this is a really fun Monday night game, despite it being two one and two teams. The spread's two and a half. Saints at home are favored. I like the over 47 and a half. What do you guys make of this one, Fitz?

1:04:18 I think the Saints are the class of the.

1:04:20 nfc south and plus this is going to be kind of an emotional night for them i think it's the 20 year anniversary of them coming back and playing in the uh superdome after katrina.

1:04:30 Good call yes d.

1:04:33 Bro yeah i'm taking the saints um shout out steve gleason i think the saints are going to be highly motivated it could be emotional game i think they're going to put up a crap ton of points.

1:04:42 All right we'll go ahead and wrap things up there thanks everybody for checking out our week four key questions best of luck setting your lineups this weekend For Debro and Fitz, I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.