Week 4 Fantasy Football Primer: Underrated Players You Need in Your Lineup (Ep. 2234)

0:01 Alright, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. A make or break week four is officially upon us. And if you're like me in most of my leagues, you're walking in this slate needing a win more than almost anything in the world. Therefore, we're firing up another primer episode with our top must start players. I'm your host, Seth Wolcock, still somehow here after the Pittsburgh Steelers allegedly even tried trading me to the Dallas Cowboys for future draft pick compensation. And back with me is a man who just has to love watching it all burn down.

0:33 He's a Bayou-born legend now living his best life in Friday Night Lights country. He's downtown Derrick Brown. D-Bro, I'm sure the city of Dallas and the surrounding DFW areas are absolutely buzzing today.

0:45 Are you as well, my friend? I am, dude. And I thought it was really funny when that hit the timeline. Apparently that was past Rappaport and Shefty's bedtime because that news comes out and the only person that tweeted it out and stuff like that was Jordan Schultz. You didn't get a Shefter tweet and a quote tweet from Rappaport or a tweet from Rappaport and a quote tweet from Shefty.

1:06 I guess they must have gone Betty by. But no, it was good trade for the Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Homie, what are you doing? Like, did that, as a Steelers fan, I'll ask you this real fast before we get rolling here, Seth. Did that trade compensation feel a little bit light considering you saw what the Jets got for Sauce Gardner, right?

1:29 You're not only talking to a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, you're talking to a Penn State football diehard who's seen Joey Porter. Yeah, dude.

1:36 Apparently we are, we are not.

1:40 Yeah, we are not apparently. Yeah, absolutely. So no, it was it was disgusting. I thought the compensation was egregious. And, you know, I saw a great tweet out there today. I'm sorry, I can't credit it. But, you know, someone's like, it's okay, Steelers fans, don't worry, you can find Doug cornerback.

1:57 in the second round of the draft and was listing all the stud cornerbacks have gone in the first round over the last couple of years. And it's like, you have to have a top five or 10 pick and we don't ever get them. So what does it matter? Derek, I was so upset about this news that I went to bed as soon as I saw it. And then I actually forgot to put in some additional waiver claims because of a bunch of good people in my big money league got dropped like Rico Dowdle, Kenneth Gainwell, Chris Godwin.

2:21 And I was like, okay, I should probably pick one of these guys up just to add some depth. I forgot because I was so mad, so I woke up in equally as bad mood.

2:29 I mean, hey, man, look, we wouldn't even be doing this show, and I would have to be putting out a health check for you if they would have included Eli Heidenreich in that trade.

2:37 So at least.

2:38 That didn't happen. At least that didn't happen, Seth, because if that had happened, we'd be doing a well check for Mr. Wolcock today.

2:45 Absolutely would be, but we got a loaded program, and we're locked and loaded for it. Must starts for each of the quarterback, wide receivers, and tight end positions coming your way. And before we get down to business, just wanted to thank everyone for tuning in to the Fancy Pros YouTube channel and the audio feed so far this season.

3:00 We're trying to get to 300,000 subscribers, and we can only get there with your help. We're so, so close. So please just give this video a thumbs up and make sure you subscribe to the channel if you're new. And Derek Brown, you're starting us off. overseas, out there in the great city of London, England. What do you have for us at the quarterback position?

3:17 Marcus Mariota is a fantastic start this week. And no, I'm going to lead this off with, I do not believe you, Dan Quinn. I do not believe Jaden Daniels is starting this week. Not when he's, dude's wearing a brace that doesn't even allow him to fully extend and bend his arm straight. So no, I don't believe you.

3:34 I don't believe your faulty gamesmanship. I believe Marcus Mariota will be under center for the Washington Commanders. And I think he's a fantastic start this week, man. QB 18 and ECR. He was QB 13 last week against the freaking Seattle Seahawks, dude. And that was without even running. He only ran five times for 11 yards on the ground.

3:51 We know that the rushing component is there for Mariota. He was very impressive as a passer. Had the seventh best passing success rate amongst 31 qualifying quarterbacks last week. And the other side of this, dude, is Indy's pass defense. Wolf. Like they've not been good, man. They're giving up the fifth highest EPA per drop back in the third most yards per attempt. So however you want to slice this up, like Marcus Mariota could easily be a low end QB one this week. I mean, because we've seen him do it before. It's like, who do you feel better about starting Marcus Mariota or Kyler Murray, Marcus Mariota or Jordan Love, Marcus Mariota or Drake May, Marcus Mariota, Bo Nix, Marcus Mariota, CJ Stroud. And I bring all those names up. because

4:36 all of those names are above him in ECR right now.

4:39 Yeah, Bo Nix and Drake May, I think, are two conversations I'd be willing to have. The rest of those, I agree, though. Definitely Mariota. I think we actually might see a shootout here overseas for one.

4:52 I agree.

4:52 Because you talked about how bad this Colts secondary is. I think the commanders is worse, dude.

4:59 Right.

4:59 Yes.

5:00 And they're past.

5:01 Yep. Yeah. You look at every metric from a receiving and a passing standpoint. And Washington is right up there. They have no help in this secondary. I thought it was bad. You know, I really thought this was a team that could have used someone like Caleb Downs in the draft to help sure that up. They went a different way. I understand Sonny Styles is a stud, but at the same time, yeah, I mean, look even at the total of this game. 47 and a half, that is much larger than we see a lot of these international totals. So I'm right there with you.

5:28 I like Mariota.

5:29 Do you like Daniel Jones this week.

5:30 At all at the quarterback position?

5:31 Is he someone you'd be rolling out?

5:34 I feel so gross, but I'm going to tell you right now, and I feel like this is a safe space. I might have already played a puss money bet on Daniel Jones over one and a half passing touchdowns. Okay. Hey, dude.

5:47 Hey, you know, you got that. I got some Keenan Allen props I've been dabbling in. So that's just that's just the way things are going out there.

5:54 I guess we are not.

5:56 Maybe, maybe, maybe I'll find a way to get him on the card. Just I do have I do. This isn't the college football show. College football betting pros channel. Make sure you're checking that out. YouTube. I do have Penn State minus two and a half on Friday night. So that's going to dictate how the weekend goes early.

6:11 There we go. I was waiting for the Penn State.

6:14 Derek, let's go to the wide receiver position where you're actually staying in this game.

6:17 Yeah. Dude, if I'm in on Marcus Mariota, then yeah, I'm going to take one of his pass catchers that's outside the top 30 wide receivers. Stefan Diggs, a wide receiver 31. Is everybody realize that Stefan Diggs is wide receiver 17 and fantasy points per game? Does everybody realize that Stefan Diggs is a 22% target share, 1.82 yards per route run, and he's tied or he's right on the heels of McLaurin with a 25.4% first reach here.

6:41 Does everybody realize that? As well as if you juxtapose that with the fact that Indy has given up the most yards per target and the third most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. Stephon Diggs is a very, very strong play. He's a wide receiver three who I think if Mariota does the dang thing, Mariota can support McLaurin and Diggs this week. I fully believe that. So both of these guys are really strong starts. And I think both of them could produce as wide receiver twos.

7:09 Because the other thing about it, who else in that passing attack is taking targets away from either one of them? This week, Seth, like Chika Konko, if he plays, OK, he's probably a part time player. Antonio Williams still is not factoring into this passing attack. So it's literally these two guys holding up the entire house. They're going to do the dang thing.

7:26 Yeah, especially like they're not getting, I think, as much production as they'd like out of the backfield. So they are having to air it out a little bit. like you said earlier, I think we see some Mariota with his legs moving the chains, but you look at even the receivers, the Colts of face, like they got Zay flowers for a half in week one. He went off against them. They had this weird Kansas city offense where you're kind of seeing roll ship between rice and worthy, right.

7:48 Which both of them provided for fantasy. And then last week, I mean, you just had the hoop law that is the Houston Texans who don't want to run out Jalen Knoll. Right. So, you know, they haven't even faced the best slot wide receivers and they're still giving up a ton of points to him.

8:01 Right. So, Don't even get me started on Nick Cayley. We could go another hour and a half about how Nick Cayley is an absolute buffoon, and I don't understand why he's employed in the NFL. But anyway, that's for a different show.

8:12 It absolutely is. For this show, though, Derek, you're going to talk me off a ledge of benching a receiver who's done almost... I don't want to say he's done nothing because he's been a starter-worthy receiver, but he's not lived up to draft expectations so far.

8:26 Yeah, sadly, Emeka Abuka has only been producing as the wide receiver 33 in fantasy points per game, but I'm here to tell everybody that lack of production is not really his fault. He only has 65% of his targets have been deemed catchable right now. That is a horrific mark. So Baker Mayfield has been playing bad football. So it's like, I understand we're taking a step down to Jalen Daniels.

8:51 I get that. But is it really a step down with how bad Baker Mayfield has been playing? Because on the things that Emeka Ibuka can control, which is running his routes. getting separation, and getting open. Emeka Ibuka's been awesome at that. Like amongst 86 qualifying wide receivers, Emeka Ibuka, 19th in separation score, 15th in route win rate. So he is doing exactly what he is supposed to do, but the quarterback play is not holding up their end of the bargain. And unless he can throw the freaking ball to himself, what is he going to do then?

9:24 So I think we could have a surprisingly strong game from Emeka Ibuka, especially when you look at the matchup. Secondary he's going against is giving up the 12th most yards per target and the six most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers. So like, am I scared of the Green Bay pass defense? No, they made Michael Pennix look quietly freaking awesome. Gave up a massive explosive play on a broken coverage to Drake London. So if Jalen Daniels can just be serviceable, if he could be a better version of Tyler Huntley in this spot start and Mecca Buka could ball out.

10:01 Yeah. And you know, we usually do see a lot of these young quarterbacks locking on to either tight end, right? They're going to try to get some checkdowns over the middle. And then at the same time, they're going to be looking for their number one option. That is Emeka Abuka at this point in his tenure. So Jalen Daniels also, like, I think I expect less checkdowns to the running backs, even though the Bucs haven't, you know, been using gain well as much as I think a lot of us hoped coming into the season. I mean, he's a guy who likes to kind of grip it and rip it.

10:28 And if it's not there, he's going to tuck and run. So hopefully he can continue to move the ball and it means good things for Emeka Buka. I myself am nervous, but it does set up with a really, really nice matchup for the secondary. I mean, you look at every, you know, wide receiver one for a team that has faced this Green Bay secondary right now, Justin Jefferson, how's eight for 92 and two Garrett Wilson, five 57 and one.

10:50 And then you mentioned Drake London nine for one 94 last week could have been more if he, you know, ended up getting on the end zone late in that game. Let's go from some established stars though, to one that you think is me rising up the rankings this week.

11:04 I think so, man. And Chris Bell at wide receiver 57 and ECR, I think is criminally low. I think he should be like a wide receiver three slash four. I think he's a very strong flex play this week. Okay. As long as the health reports come back, you know, like he's not going to see a diminished role or things like that. So everybody does need to kind of watch the news. But what we saw out of Chris Bell's role last week got ramped up, had a 64% route share, a 19% target share, had 67 receiving yards, 2.48 yards per route run, and almost a 17% first read share. If he takes more of this passing pie this week against a Minnesota Vikings player corner room which has given up the 11th most yards per target and

11:44 the 10th most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers Chris Bell could be a very surprising flex in a game where the Vegas totals the line is telling you Miami is going to be trailing in this game so we know they're gonna have to throw the ball like they've done the entirety of the season so if that is the case Chris Bell could be a wide receiver three this week.

12:06 Seth And based on Chris Bell's profile coming out of Louisville the last couple of years, even despite working with some, you know, kind of subpar quarterbacks, whether that was Miller Moss or whether, you know, Tyler Shuck was pretty decent when he was under center for the Louisville Cardinals. Definitely not what he is today, but he is known as the big play. high value target earner right i mean malik washington like if you need set if you need eight eight points in a cloud of dust he's probably the guy to get right coming off a 10 target game but if you want serious upside which i don't know about you derrick but this week i'm a big underdog in a couple of matchups right and i gotta pull out you know something out a rabbit out of

12:43 the hat and maybe this is a spot with chris bell it's a low total two in this game so i don't think there are a ton of points there's not a lot of players that I want to get invested with. But as far as Chris Bell in the Miami offense, Derek, is there a player other than him from the skills players that you would rather fire up in a flex, like Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright, or is it Chris Bell for you?

13:03 It's Chris Bell. It's Chris Bell. Caleb Douglas is out of this game. Malik Washington, like you said, has been just soaking up empty calorie volume. But let's play out the fever dream of playing Chris Bell this week. Okay, Seth? What if Malik Washington isn't getting that 25-26% target share this week? What if instead that goes to Chris Bell, Seth?

13:26 Is that so crazy to see? For a player that is more talented than Malik Washington, another week if he ramps up and he's in the 75% route share quadrant. He's got a good matchup on paper. If Malik Willis can buy time with his legs and they're in catch-up mode and he's just YOLO-like, screw it. We're going to chuck it up to Chris Bell. He's down there somewhere.

13:48 Chris Bell could have a very surprising game, man.

13:51 Yeah, I think Brian Flores is going to get after this team. I think Minnesota is going to get out to a lead and then maybe get some negative game script. helping out Chris Bell and company there for the Miami offense. Before we keep it moving, just a quick reminder that you can take the guesswork out of your start-sit decisions with the Fantasy Pros Start-Sit Assistant. Instantly see your optimal lineup based on your roster, scoring settings, and advice from more than 100-plus fantasy football experts, including downtown Derrick Brown.

14:19 You can even set your lineup with one click. Get started today at fantasypros.com slash start-sit.

14:26 All right.

14:26 And let's move forward to the tight end position where Derek, you're actually foregoing the running back starts and you're going double tight end here in the flex. Yeah.

14:36 And just to kind of the reasoning why we're not mentioning any running backs on this week's episode is only because there is a large swath of like RB threes and running back. It's gross, really, really fast because of committee backfields, players fumbling away opportunities like Jadarian price. Like You get past like RB 15 and RB 20 and it is disgusting. And you look around and you're like, Oh God, who am I going to believe in right now?

15:02 And you're basically just living in RB three touchdown dependent flex territory. And it's like, can I talk about Kyle Monon guy? Can I talk about Blake Corum? Can I talk about a lot of these guys like a Woody Marks and say, Hey, the matchup's good. He probably gets like 10 touches. Okay. That's great. But they don't have any pass game role. And if they don't get in the end zone, you're hating life that you started any of these guys. So read the primer, play the matchups as you see fit with any of those guys. But no, there are two tight ends this week where I feel like people need to hear the good news about. And we're going to kick that off with Kenyon Sadiq, dude.

15:33 Tight end 11 and ECR, he crushed last week. And this could have been like the tip of the iceberg for what Kenyon Sadiq does for the rest of the season. Because as we're recording this and projecting this game, still no Mason Taylor. A.D. Mitchell, I do not think, plays this week. So... Kenyon Sadiq is the clear number two target in the Jets passing attack, which looks competent. And last week, Kenyon Sadiq, we all know that he balled out.

16:02 He had over 100 receiving yards, 4.2 yards per route run, a 21% target share, 19.2% first read share, tight end four on the week. And everybody's wondering, what the heck do I do with tight ends? Do I start Tucker Kraft? Do I start all these other guys? Like, do I feel good about them? Probably not. Kenyon Sadiq, I feel really good about because we know the Jets are going to be playing probably catch up against the Bears, depending on whoever the hell Benny Johnson wants to start a quarterback.

16:27 We shall see. But looking at all of this, I think Sadiq is going to be highly involved in this passing attack against a defense that has given up the 10th most yards per target, two tight ends, when yet the Bears have only faced a part-time Darren Waller, an underutilized TJ Hawkinson, and a part-time Zach Ertz. But they're giving up that mark. And oh, baby, Kenyon Sadiq is coming to town.

16:54 Yeah, it's a great point. And I have been a little bit nervous based on those game logs against.

16:59 Right.

17:00 But it's a it's a fair, you know, a fair standpoint that they haven't really faced the best of the tight end crop out there in the NFL yet. I do think that this linebacking court is a bit better than obviously what the Detroit Lions were rolling out a week ago against Sadiq. I'm less confident on Sadiq than I was a week ago. I still think he's a top 12 option, though, with you. I just don't know if it's quite the explosion that we got. But either way, he's someone that needs to be rostered. And Derek telling you he needs to be in lineups this week as well. Derek, from the new exciting thing at the big man position, you're going with an old Wiley veteran as well.

17:35 I am. And everything on paper, all the analytics say that we have not gotten a Mark Andrews explosion game. And I think we could get it this week. He's tied in 15 in ECR. I think he should be ranked as a top 12 tight end. He's tied in 20 in fantasy points per game, but he hasn't scored a touchdown, dude. And he's been, his usage and his per route efficiency has been awesome. Just for everybody at home, outside of looking at fantasy points per game, if I were to tell you there is a tight end that has a 23.7% target share, has 2.07 yards per route run, and a 25.9% first reach here, would everybody collectively be saying, oh, dude, that's a top six option. That's a top five tight end.

18:21 That's a guy we have to play this week. And yet, Mark Andrews is languishing as a tight end to an ECR right now. And a lot of people are probably on the fence of saying, do I play Mark Andrews? What do I do with Mark Andrews? I don't know what to do with Mark Andrews. And I'm saying, no, you need to play this man because the deeper metrics all say a regression game is coming for Mark Andrews where he is going to put up a massive stat line because all of the per route efficiency has been awesome.

18:52 And if it's this week, you're going to be like, oh man, I'm so glad I got him into my lineup. But Seth, I mean, am I crazy? In the way that I'm framing Mark Andrews, is he washed? What do you think about him?

19:04 No, I don't think he is. He hasn't delivered from a standpoint that we wanted, right? I know there's some Mark Andrews versus Zay Flowers bets going on around.

19:12 The company right now.

19:13 There are.

19:14 Looking pretty good on the Zay side, too.

19:15 Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. That being said, I think this is a tough one for me this week, Derek, because the Titans— it's hard to take anything from their games, right? Like again, you had Johnny Munt, Dallas Goddard got injured. And then Isaiah was.

19:31 A part-time player when they played the Jets. So right. And James Winston and his horrible target say hi. Like, so yeah, you know what I mean? It's like, how much do you take away? Like, oh, they're good on paper against Titans. They ain't playing anybody or the quarterback play has been dog water. So you can't really like take a lot away from like those on paper metrics when it's like, well, they haven't really been tested.

19:53 Yeah, a bit of a mystery box, I think, but a fun one that you think could be profitable this week for everyone in week number four. Derek Brown, great stuff as always, not just here on the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast, but on the Primer at fantasypros.com as well. Go read the full version out there now for you.

20:10 And comment down below your favorite week four must-start players. And while you're here, don't forget to smash that like button on your way out and subscribe to the channel if you're new. For Derek Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care, y'all. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.

20:23 If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.