NFL Week 8 Best Player Prop Bets & Anytime Touchdown Picks (Ep. 2308)

0:01 What's up, friends, and welcome into Betting Pros. This is the Week 8 Prop Show. I'm Chris Welsh. That is Andrew Erickson, and we have got the props for you. Ten of our favorite props, five apiece. We're going to also do some touchdowns. We're going to look at first touchdowns as we do. We're also going to do a little accountability. We are going to have to put one thing to bet. There's so much to do in this episode, but thank you guys for hanging out with us, and hopefully we can get you rocking for all of your Week 8 Prop Bets. And again, there are so many things, Erickson, that we've got to deal with. Maybe the first thing off the top before we even get an accountable for our week last week is we've got to mourn the

0:42 death of the Jameer Gibbs rollover touchdown. Sad music, tear, whatever you guys got to do. It's very sad. We had a great thing going and it felt like it was just taken away from you in so many spots. Five straight weeks, it got up to like four and a half to five units. What would you like to say in remembrance of the Jameer Gibbs rollover ending in week seven?

1:06 I felt like it ended too early, to be honest.

1:09 I thought that we could at least get to the double-digit weeks where it could be a really big sweat with the amount of Units that we were wagering on Jameer Gibbs, again, at minus 300, minus 250, right? You're wagering a lot to not win that much, but because it's something that's supposed to happen and it's very, very likely to happen. When it doesn't happen, you feel really dumb because you're risking a lot to not win that much.

1:32 So that's always kind of the thing you're trying to balance out when you're betting on some of these heavily juiced props. That being said, the way that it shook out in that particular game, I think was actually more of like the gut punch. I can live with him not scoring a touchdown, but the fact that he voluntarily went down at the two yard line to get the team to win and not score a touchdown, that is kind of like the ultimate gut punch that entire game.

1:55 you know, a Lions game that at home did not score a ton of points. That was obviously really disappointing. But I will say it's not on the card this week. I'm going back to Gibbs anytime touchdowns because.

2:07 Well, dude, I didn't mean to cut you off, but I just wanted to say what's going to hurt more is if we look back on the season and that's the one game he didn't score and then he went down at the two. So just like the pain might not be over, but I don't blame you. It's minus two now. When you see Jameer Gibbs at minus 290, Erickson.

2:22 you got to bet them.

2:23 Yeah, exactly.

2:25 And I think too, if anything, it's probably more likely to score multiple touchdowns. Now that he went one week without scoring, he still wants to break the daily and Tomlinson's record. So this is not the last time that we will celebrate Jameer Gibbs scoring touchdown. Just last week, obviously it did not work out, but against Brian Flores defenses, nine touchdowns, six games against. So he's already averaging over one touchdown per game against this type of defense. So, uh, Yeah, it's not on the official card, but it should be in there.

2:52 We don't have two touchdowns on the card? You don't want to make that like a side bet?

2:55 I mean, two touchdowns, first half touchdown.

2:58 It's probably 250. Yeah, first half touchdown is fun. You could probably get first half still minus money. I'll bet you it's like minus 150, and I'll bet you two touchdowns is probably like 225.

3:08 Yeah.

3:08 I don't know if you want to do either one of those.

3:10 I'll dabble. I'll dabble.

3:11 I'll take a week off of any time touchdown because obviously that hurt last week, but there are other ways to enjoy the– benefits of Jameer Gibbs being really good at football.

3:22 Well, a lot of pain the previous week as we had probably our worst week on the show. And we are now stepping in from our best week on the show. If you guys pay attention to us. accountability buddies rejoice, or maybe actually get mad because we have to talk about success. And I know you accountability buddies like to hear the negatives, but it was probably the best singular totality of the show. Cause we had, I think a week one, I think you were four and one and I was three and two, but we didn't have the touchdown calls this week. I was four and one and I hit a touchdown. You were three and two and you also hit a touchdown. So I think the single best individual week was probably mine this week because we

4:01 added the touchdown. And then as a collective group here, we killed it. Like I said, four and one, three and two. We both had a touchdown call on the season. Our records, you are 18 and 12. You are murdering the season. I just got back to 500 because I had such a bad week the week prior. So I'm 15 and 15. trying to get over that slump. We have essentially also hit the even marker for our touchdown calls.

4:27 So I just want to point that out in the money that we've made. I think I'm like slightly under ROI and I think you're dead even. So we're kind of back to square one and what we've invested in the touchdown. So again, 18 and 12 for Erickson, 15 and 15 for me on the season. We've each hit three touchdown calls, essentially even ROI, no first touchdowns. That's how the whole thing looked. Jameer Gibbs rollover that is dead, but we will find new, more fun things to get into.

4:54 And that's what we're going to do. So I think it's time to get into this bad boy, unless you have any parting comments on the great week, Erickson. I mean, we, we both did pretty, I was by the way, one touchdown away from Bo Nix who bought, what was it? Five straight weeks of Cardinals. I was one away from pulling a five and O week. I think you were close in there. Any parting comments as we get rid of all of our good success and we move on to a week that people can judge.

5:17 Well, my favorite bet that you had last week that I tailed because I sent you the video of Tank Dell catching the ball. And the fact that he turned into, what, a 43-yard. He had more receiving yards than Nico Collins did in that game.

5:30 I almost got a text before Tank Dell went down. I had a text from Erickson instantly. And I think I brought up laddering. We didn't have the cojones to ladder it. But I was like, ladder to 20 or 30 would have been fun. But, yeah, that was– That was a smash. That one was one of probably the most fun bets we're going to have because it was just one catch and we're done and we were over with.

5:50 It's one of those bets too where you're live until the game clock strike zero zero zero zero right because it's just one play that this can happen on so you always keep the faith where there are some prop bets that you make that you know halfway through it's oh this is dead on arrival so that that one that one was fun because that's the game i was watching because the patriots obviously played on thursday so i was watching that texans and giants came very close because i also had tyron tracy at the under in that game which i'll also hit he else he got injured but um i did benefit from cam scataboo kind of like taking over so even though i didn't bet on the big breakout game from scataboo i bet against one

6:26 of his backfield mates and that ended up being correct so.

6:30 Another record that it's a thing i haven't tallied if someone was bored and they want to go back and do it they could do it but one thing i did want to look was like what is the record on the formula of where we give the bet you know what i'm saying like i think I might have the most success on the first bet I give out on the show, that type of thing. And I believe we were technically 6-0 on our first six bets on the show from last week. And then I think on the back half is where we tumbled slightly. I could be a little bit wrong about that, but I think the first four were hits. So I haven't done the math or anything like that, where our best bets end up lining up on the show, but then That's just

7:09 getting super.

7:09 Nerdy and great.

7:10 So you're telling the watchers and the viewers to turn it off after our first six bets because.

7:16 They're just going to get worse? I don't know. Like I said, we have to go back and do the math. We have to go back and watch every show and calculate and see what's the percent of each one. But like I said, then we're really getting into it. But you guys can go do that and have fun.

7:28 All right.

7:29 We'll push that aside. Let's move on to this week, week eight. Whole bunch floating out there. Let's see. And I know this is probably your favorite episode. These are two bigger names that we locked into, so we didn't get into the mud in this one. But I personally know from doing my gajillion shows I do with Erickson, this one has been building. This is one that was going to be on the card no matter what. And I have to imagine this is your most invested favorite bet of the week. So prop number one for the show, hit us.

7:53 Chase Brown, over 53.5 rushing yards. The Bengals are taking on the Tennessee Titans at home as 11.5 points. home favorites so chase brown has been disappointment in the rushing column so far this year so he's only hit 60 or more rushing yards twice in six games played but he has faced a pretty tough schedule in terms of the run defenses he's had to go up against so i'm kind of putting that a little bit in terms of the context behind his lack of production Whereas week eight against this Tennessee Titans defense, I think this is the easiest matchup that he has potentially had all season long.

8:29 And we're not concerned about the workload split with Samaj P.

8:33 Ryan.

8:33 I know that it looked a little finicky after the Miami Dolphins game where it looked closer to a 50-50 split. But last week after the bye week, it went back to 70% of the snaps for Chase Brown, 30% of the snaps for Samaj P. Ryan.

8:45 And Chase Brown out-touched them 15-4.

8:47 So not worried about this being any type of committee. It's very clear that Chase Brown is the bell cow in this offense. He has double-digit carries in every single game except one this season. He actually has double-digit carries in all but one game in his last 15 games played. So he's going to get plenty of opportunities to run against this Tennessee Titans defense that every starting running back that has faced this defense has at least 13 carries. Brown, like I said, has double-digit carries in every single game except for one this year. Every starting running back who has faced the Titans this season has at least 60 rushing yards, except Saquon Barkley because he got injured in that game in week two.

9:25 Despite that, Tank.

9:26 Bigsby still had 13 carries in that game against the Titans and had chances to get this type of yardage. And this is all with the context that they had Jeffrey Simmons on the team and they were bad against running backs. And now you're taking out their best defensive tackle. So this is according to Sumer Sports. Among interior defensive linemen, Jeffrey Simmons ranked first in total tackles, first in run stops, first in 36 impact plays. When you remove that player from a defense, you are going to see a massive ripple effect in terms of what happens when he gone.

10:00 And that to me means Chase Brown breakout game that we've all been waiting for that fantasy managers have been begging.

10:06 Why is Chase Brown so bad? He's not bad.

10:09 This is just a good matchup for him. So I'm taking the over. I think that this is, this is, I would not surprise me at all. He goes over a hundred yards in this game.

10:15 So, um, are you, I mean, considering laddering.

10:22 I feel like I need to, I don't know the right approach to ladder because I feel like every time we talk about or do them, they don't work.

10:27 So I don't know.

10:29 I don't know. I think you want to ladder it. I think you want to ladder. What would you, what would you responsibly ladder that to? You said a hundred, but would you go to 80 maybe?

10:38 Hundreds.

10:38 I mean, I think hundreds is a good number, right? Century mark.

10:42 Sure. Why not?

10:42 Just do the 53, the 60, the 70, the 80, the 90 and the hundred.

10:44 Just do all of them.

10:45 Yeah.

10:46 Do you get the 100?

10:47 Because you know that if he's at like 95 yards, the coaches are going to be like, let's chase Brown out.

10:52 Let's get him to 100 yards. Let's get him back in there.

10:55 You like this one before the trade, too, by the way, of Jeffrey Simmons. So just to throw this out, this was Erickson locked it into me, told me his favorite play kind of the week early on. And then the Simmons thing happened. You loved it more. And I don't think the line moved that much. So your bet is here.

11:10 I think there could be some fun in maybe laddering the 60 and the 70, and then you do like a little baby sprinkle on that 80, but I'm down with you. Mine, a little bit of a bigger name as well. I am jumping in into the Zay Flowers market. Zay Flowers receiving yards. We are going to play the over. It is sitting at 81.5 going up against the Buffalo Bills.

11:31 Here's a fun stat. Every single of the number one wide receivers marketed, we have this on betting pros, um, Betting pros on the prop analyzers, a bunch of really great tools in here. Every single receiver has hit their over-receiving prop, the number one guy, against the Bills all season long. Zay Flowers has hit this number in four of six games, and then Shocker, the two previous to this prior, were the only ones that he had not hit this on. So four of the six, he has had smash lines on this 80-plus number. Also, from a grade perspective, Buffalo grades out on PFF. 32 of 32 on wide receivers. D. Alford ranked 99 of 100 at corners.

12:14 They've got an 89 of 106 and a 76 of 106. Horrifically bad corners across the board. And it's just all about Lamar being back. Lamar is going to pepper the targets to Zay Flowers. He's actually plus money at seven receptions. So that line is right around the six number. Zay Flowers is going to get some big chunk yards here.

12:31 He has been getting those chunk yards and the Buffalo Bill's Those are a spot that you can do it. So I really like the receiving yards. Eighty one point five over with Lamar back. Lots of the big side of people are like, oh, Jacoby Lane and all that. Don't worry. Lamar is going to look often and a lot.

12:47 It's a flowers and we're going to get those yards. So give me say flowers receiving yards. For my first prop, which we'll have to track and see if that does well or not. I mean, I only spoke seven minutes less than you did on your Chase Brown. You could tell how ramped up Erickson was about Chase Brown. You don't have any more information that exists out there on any player than this one. So get rolling with it.

13:10 I'm excited to see these. Before we get into prop number two, you guys want to check out, I think I mentioned the analyzer, but we got the prop cheat sheet. Find the best NFL player prop bets with betting pros prop cheat sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props. And I would remind you again, going to the cheat sheet can rev up your engines.

13:35 If you're trying to figure out where to go, maybe the shows don't do it for you, whatever, but you get in there, check out and sort by five star sort by highest plus EV. And then you can start digging in from there. And we also have the accountability on how the five and four star bets have tracked this year on ROI. So go into the cheat sheet, kind of get rolling. You can see where you want to go. If you don't already have a great idea, analyzer will hook you up when you got your hooks into something and But when you're just trying to cast some lines, go into the cheat sheet. All right, let's go to prop number two for this week. I was given a pre-warning of dibs. Dibs was called, I think, two days ago. And it was fair enough because we

14:15 both really like this, so I co-signed. But prop number two is dibs for Erickson on this wide receiver.

14:22 Antonio Williams, over 32.5 receiving yards, rookie wide receiver for the Washington Commanders. There's no Jerry McLaurin. for the commander's offense he's been put on injury reserve with the injury that he suffered a couple weeks ago and that means we're going to see a bigger role from Antonio Williams that's what all the coaches have talked about whether offensive coordinator David Blau whether it's been Dan Quinn they've all talked about Stevan Diggs role is not going to change even though he will see targets in the commander's passing game Antonio Williams is going to play more and I think that means he's going to go over this number easily because when he has played a full complement of

14:57 routes in this offense he has been productive so Last time we saw him in week six, he led the commanders in routes run. He had three catches for 50 yards.

15:07 That's an over.

15:08 In week four, without Terry McLaurin fully healthy, TMC missed that game. He again led the commanders in routes run. He did also go over this number, but it didn't technically hit because his 87 yard touchdown was called back due to a penalty. But the yardage was still there. You just have to look a little bit under the hood to be like, okay, no, this actually did happen.

15:28 He has had big yardage games. without Terry McLaurin in the lineup. And then you look at the matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who have been buns against the passing game this season, especially against slot receivers, which Antonio Williams and Diggs are both going to play a decent amount from the slot. Second most receiving yards allowed overall this season.

15:45 Second most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season. Antonio Williams, again, in week one, had four catches for 64 yards and a touchdown against this Eagles defense. So there's already proof of concept of him having a productive game going over 32 and a half receiving yards against this specific defense. And now the routes are going to be that the floor is much higher than it was back in week one when it was his first NFL start.

16:08 So I think that this one is another just slam dunk. And I know we've been talking about where he's ranked in ECR and fantasy pro side, and We just think we're taking crazy pills because.

16:18 It's the craziest thing.

16:20 He's just ranked so low.

16:21 And I don't get it because I think that he could easily outscore Diggs.

16:26 And that would not shock me at all.

16:28 Every day. Like, I'm going to look right now. Like, hold on. Fantasy pros, football.

16:31 Because he's going to run more routes than Diggs. He's going to see just as many opportunities in the slot as Diggs will. And you can make the argument that he has a higher ceiling. Diggs hasn't topped 55 yards at any game this season. Antonio Williams has 50 yards in two of his games this season or more.

16:47 We did a show, I think it was yesterday, and he fell from 39 to 40. He's still 40, but he also has the marker that, that he's fallen five spots in the last two days. So don't really understand. I will say I have this slight little hesitation in my brain of wondering, can like Traylon Burks be the guy that they want to play more of it? Well, no, just play like a Terry McLaurin role and they want to stretch the field. What gets me excited is if they wanted to move Stefan Diggs out a little bit and let Antonio Williams play in the slot. I think that works really well for him. So I think there's slight uncertainty, but I just don't care with the low number because like Antonio Williams is a really talented player

17:19 and they're going to need to go in that direction. So I'm there with you. But he continues to fall in fantasy, and we both don't understand. My second prop, I just talked to you guys about the cheat sheet. I talked to you about five stars and plus EV. Well, sound the alarm because we have a five-star prop from the prop analyzer and the prop cheat sheet. Five-star props on betting pros, up 31 units on the season average. And, you know, there's only so many. There does tend to be a lot of unders that are going to play in there. But again, we're 31 units over on five-star props.

17:53 That means it absolutely loves this. And guess what? The consensus number they throw at is 23.5. I am rocking with 21.5 because that's where you can get it. We are talking about Drake May rushing yards. Drake May rushing yards over 21.5, which is in a spot or two. Projections on betting pros at 27.1. He has gone over his rushing prop number in five of seven games this year, but four straight games. Specifically, it shows like barely going over the 23.5, but when we go to 21.5, he has smashed this. Now, the only oddity is that the Dolphins, who he's going up against, they don't really give up a whole lot of rushing yards, but it's because people pass.

18:36 People pass on them a lot. You got A.J. Brown that's banged up a little bit. You got that whole receiving core that's banged up a little bit. Definite must-win situations. I think you've had some, you know, we've joked about some worry spots of like, it's not like a letdown situation, but they're in Miami. They're on the road. Dolphins are trying to play up a little bit. I think it's a great spot for him at 21.5 on the rushing yards.

18:57 five-star prop from betting pros. I'm fully backing this one. This is on the cheat sheet. I want to say it's one of the top over plays because there's plenty of unders, but Drake May rushing yards is number two for me.

19:10 Number two.

19:10 All right. Let's go to our third one here. We are going to play some overs again, and you are going to go back to the wide receiver front, kind of all over the board and where I'm going. You're sticking to some wide outs here. So what do you have for an over for your third prop?

19:23 Going to Garrett Wilson over 59 and a half receiving yards. So this is one that you don't want to look at the prop up cheat sheet when it comes to how he's done in the past so far this season, because there's a lot of red for Garrett Wilson when it comes to 59 and a half receiving yards. So he's only gone over this number in three of seven games played, and he's been on a little bit of a cold streak here. But I'm coming here to say that it ends here in week eight against the Las Vegas Raiders. Look at the last four games when the Raiders defense has been reeling seven different receivers. They have faced again in four games have gone for at least 57 yards. They've also been absolutely terrible against man coverage.

20:06 Last four games, 8.7 yards per attempt allowed against man coverage. That's the second highest, including four touchdowns, zero interceptions. And Gino Smith, like, dude's kind of been low-key balling against man coverage this year. 9.4 yards per attempt against man coverage. It's the second highest among qualified quarterbacks according to next-gen stats.

20:23 Six touchdowns and zero interceptions. So I'm expecting Garrett Wilson to be efficient in this matchup. And... I think that he's going to get double digit targets. Last week, he only saw three targets with Omar Cooper and some of the other guys, Mason Taylor, obviously having a big game. And there are a lot of squeaky wheel narratives kind of going on here with Garrett Wilson, where, and again, this is a shout out to the Coach Speak Index, but you're talking about Aaron Glenn, some of these quotes from Glenn about Garrett Wilson only getting three targets last week.

20:54 We have to do everything we can to try to get him the ball. I'm going to put that on myself if he doesn't get targets that he needs, because trust me, that's in the game plan to make sure he gets the ball. So we have to do everything we can to try to make sure we do that. Wilson is our top priority to make sure we get him the ball. Frank Reich basically kind of asked like the same question. Are they really trying to get Wilson the ball early and often? We want to get him even more. We can create touches and scheme him open.

21:16 We're all over the time. And that's why he's been productive, relatively speaking. I want it to be more. I want him to be the best in the NFL because that's what we think of him.

21:24 Did you see that comment real quick? It's not the same thing, but like every time I hear Aaron, I feel like Aaron Glenn is always having to like voice for something they're doing wrong offensively. Did you see the thing that happened with Sean Payton where he brought up Marvin Mims?

21:38 Oh yeah.

21:38 And he's been doing it for like three years. And then the dude is like, you bring up Marvin Mims all the time and you never get him the ball. And Peyton's like, kind of like almost, he's like, yeah, I guess you're right. Like, I feel like that's a little bit, I get that same vibe when I hear Aaron Glenn talk about Brees Hall or talk about Garrett Wilson.

21:54 Yeah.

21:55 Sean Payton is definitely one of the more unique coaches when it comes to the, and this is something that Greg Branis has talked about a lot with, his content on the coach B index side where you can't trust Sean Payton whatsoever when it comes to reliability, when it comes to his expectation of workload, because I think that he's in a space where when he's talking about these players, he's not really like thinking about the aftermath of, oh yeah, I did say that. But now that I'm like thinking about it, I don't know if I actually believe what I said, you know, a couple of days ago.

22:23 It's like one of those things he's thinking, he's like, did I say what I was thinking out loud? And everyone's just like, yeah, you kind of did.

22:28 Yeah, exactly.

22:28 So I feel like it's more of him being like, yeah, like, yeah, let's get Marvin Mims more touches. And then in the game, it's like, oh yeah, I guess we didn't get Marvin Mims more touches.

22:35 Like, my bad. Like, sorry. So hopefully that isn't the case here. Maybe a little bit more.

22:41 But Garrett Wilson, obviously, in a little different of how they're viewed in their respective offenses versus Marvin Mims, who's more of a gadget type of player. So I'm expecting Wilson to at least get double-digit targets in this game against this Raiders defense.

22:54 He should be uber efficient.

22:55 So that is why I do like the yards more than the receptions. That was something that I was considering, but just in case we don't get the double-digit targets, even on five or six balls thrown at his way, Garrett Wilson should be able to eat and be productive against the Raiders.

23:07 They've just been really bad.

23:08 Well, I'm on the other side. I'm going to take a prop on the other side of this game, and it's something we actually talked a really decent amount about on Fantasy Pros over on the Running Back episode, and it's been about Ashton Genting. And It's not about Ash and Jinty as a rusher because that has not been a success. 28 carries over his last three games. He doesn't cross over. I think he's averaging like nine point something.

23:30 You know, he doesn't get over 10. But what has happened? It's a receiving side. So we're going to go to the receiving yards. And this one, kind of similar to what you said. And like, this is not a supported one by the models. Like betting pros doesn't like it. Projections are at 26. But I'm going to take 27.5 over on the receiving yards for him. And that's going to be that line. He has hit this in six of seven games this season, including five straight games. Here are your most recent lines, as he has not been a successful runner. 61, 36, 50, 68, and 37 in a row. Five straight, where he has blown past this number. Now, I think you can also look at the matchup as far as the Jets are going, and you can say like,

24:16 You know, where is it? Because they're not giving up big lines that you can do this. They're only averaging 21.5 or 21.5 receiving yards to running backs. A, one of the problems with that is because they're averaging over 100 yards rushing, they're giving up on the ground. But also, it's over six yards per reception to running backs. So you can start playing around with math. If we're going to see Jinty in there, this is going to work well in his favor. I'd also throw out from a receiving standpoint, In a coverage standpoint, this is a well-graded matchup. Obviously, cornerbacks can do well, but it's 20th of 32. 20 of 32 linebacker coverage is graded over on PFF. And It's the number one matchup for tight end. So you

24:58 could be like, well, this is a Brock Bowers matchup. I think there's going to have to be a point where Brock Bowers is they're going to have to have a major hyper focus. And I think that's where checkdowns to get Jinty involved. So, again, my big place here, Jinty has been absolutely smashing receiving. You pointed this out on the on the RB episodes that we've been doing.

25:14 He's turned into McCaffrey for that offense in a very similar way. So this is the play. Anything under 30 is what I want to do. So I'm going to go gentee receiving yards over. Wanted to play the receptions. And I think you could definitely go down that route, but they're juiced at 3.5, you know, so like over. So, you know, we hit that for the models like it at three. I like it a little bit over, but give me the receiving yards.

25:37 All right.

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26:23 numbers were correct of what I said, this is where you got to scrutinize a little bit here. And I think we might be getting into a little bit of an under market. So bets four and five. I don't know if it really is truly dicey, but what's the... Oh, is this the one? This is the one that I love. I love this one. I want to play this one every single– I think I played this one last week or the week prior.

26:43 You probably did, yeah.

26:44 It's one of my favorite bets to do all season long, and I'll bet you– I bet I can hit this 8 out of 10, so I'm totally cosigning with you. But here, you tell the people about what this amazing bet is.

26:56 DK Metcalf under 4.5 receptions. He has only gone over 4.5 receptions twice this year in seven games played, so 27%. And the correlation with it is he only goes over this number when Aaron Rodgers throws at least 40 pass attempts in a game because DK Beckham has not been efficient on his targets. He only has a 55% catch rate this season. That is eighth worst among all qualified wide receivers. And he's bottom 10 in separation rate among those same qualifying wide receivers. So he needs a lot of volume to get to five catches. And look, when he gets nine targets, yeah, he can get to five catches.

27:33 But the fact that it took him so much volume to get to these types of numbers, that has me leaning towards, look, this might be a sweat, especially in a matchup against the Browns where he did go over this the last time he faced the Browns. And that was a bet I was really in on the under with DK Metcalf. I felt really strong about it. And through the first three quarters of that game, I was thinking, dude, I'm so smart, man. Like fading DK Metcalf.

27:55 I knew this was going to work.

27:56 Cash rules everything around me.

27:58 Cream.

27:58 And then he just went absolutely nuclear in the fourth quarter and just totally killed the bet. But I don't think the process behind the bet was a bad move. When he was going up against Denzel Ward, he was getting locked up. He only had one catch on three targets against Denzel Ward. And again, despite all the volume that he got, he still only got over this by half a reception. He had exactly five catches. So he's needed at least nine targets in the both the games that he has gone over in the Browns game and at Tampa Bay. Again, mentioned the poor catch rate, the poor separation rate. The Browns are allowing the fourth fewest targets to number one wide receivers. six per game. So I think that it's scary because he did it already

28:38 against the Browns, but everything else is suggesting that he's not going to be able to repeat doing that two times in the same season. So I'm going to take the under here on him. And something else to point out, this is courtesy of the smart money picks tool on betting pros. The sharps are also backing Metcalf at four and a half receptions based on the prediction market and kind of where the money's being spent. So that's something that I know that, I think we talked about it either with Tank Dell last week. One of the prop bets also had some of the sharps on them as well.

29:07 And that was one of the bets that cashed last week. So that's a tool that I'm starting to look at a little bit more. It's newer that we have this year, obviously, with the introduction of a lot of these prediction markets. So if the sharps are on it, I want to be sharp, man. So taking the underarm back half.

29:20 Yeah, and definitely check it out. I've actually been playing around with it. We did it in the baseball season as well. The smart money tool is a very, very cool vibe. So go and check that out on Betting Pros. Another piece. prop analyzer cheat sheet and then you can check out where some of the sharp money is going in so I like that especially if it's in play I am going to be jumping into the under market I believe I am four and three on unders this year.

29:42 Was tracking them. We were a beautiful three and oh, and then we went and then we picked up one last week because we had a good week. So we're over 500 on unders. This is, you know, remember, it's the Undertaker, Undertaker. And then is it the over? That's the little acronym nicknames we have here. But I'm going to play an under here. And this one has some backing from betting pros over on the prop analyzer. It is Malik Willis under 16.5 completions. That's a fun one.

30:11 The projected number is at 16. And this under comes in as a three-star NFL prop bet. So not on the five. It has a positive ROI on the season. But Malik Willis has hit this once this season. He has completed 16. 17 passes only once previous games. And look at some of the defenses he's gone against. The Jets, he completed 14. The Bengals, he completed 15. Then you get a monster powerhouse in Minnesota completing only nine passes.

30:41 The only game he did it was totally ironically weird, Kansas City. where he's able to complete 20. So I like this. The Patriots are getting completion unders on quarterbacks in three of their last five games. And two of the last three quarterbacks have gone under Malik Willis has had that struggle. Now I will be fair that, you know, he does have his receiving core back, but I think, I think the Patriots are really tough matchup. And we've also seen Malik Willis running a bit more. So 16.5, again, projected number is 16. I'm betting pros 16, I'm going to take the under on the 17 for Malik Willis completions.

31:17 And that is going to get us to our final prop bet here. I thought it was a really interesting one that you decided to go down this route because there's some questions about him going into this weekend to multiple reasons. But talk to us about your final prop bet.

31:31 Jonathan Taylor under 16 and a half rushing attempts against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So this isn't the first time I've had a rushing attempts prop against the Jaguars on the betting card. I think earlier in the year, I bet the Chase Brown under on his rushing attempts against Jacksonville Jaguars because teams can't run.

31:47 On this defense.

31:49 And if you look at over the last two years, there's only one running back behind or besides Christian McCaffrey that has actually gone for at least 17 carries against the Jaguars defense. And his name is Jonathan Taylor. He's the only guy who's actually had 20 carries against his defense. He did it twice last year, but I don't know if we're getting the same type of Jonathan Taylor bell cow role that we've traditionally got from him because of all of these trade rumors that are swirling around with him.

32:15 And the fact that last week we saw the most usage from rookie running back Seth McGowan having a season high in carries where you saw Jonathan Taylor see his opportunity share in the backfield decreased to a season low. So I think that matters because I don't think it's a Scenario where they can outright bench Jonathan Taylor or make him like a healthy inactive or something along those lines.

32:36 He's going to play in this game.

32:38 But if it's the fourth quarter, they're getting blown out because they are massive dogs on the road against a high power Jaguars offense that's coming off a bye week. Colts have traded away half their team already. He's not going to be out there, man, like getting all these carries. Why risk it, right? If they really want to trade him, why are they putting him out there when they have Seth McGowan? They're tweeting out his social highlights because they're so excited about their rookie running back. So I'm just reading the tea leaves here with the Jonathan Taylor usage kind of heading south.

33:05 Again, no running back.

33:07 Has surpassed 15 carries against the Jaguars this season. The Jaguars have faced the fourth lowest run rate this year because teams can't run on them and teams have to decide, hey, we got to abandon the run if we want to get back into this game. So his usage is going down. It's a really bad matchup across the board against arguably the best run defense in the NFL. And we've already seen Taylor finish under this number not that long ago in a tough road matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He had just 15 carries in that game. So no Quinton Nelson.

33:37 I'm just fading Jonathan Taylor. And this was the way, or this was the best way that I could find that was kind of playing into the narrative. Cause this also plays against, because he is so good. He could rip off a big run. Like he did last week against the Vikings. That can still happen here. And I can still make the bet because he has to get to 16 carries or excuse me, 17 carries.

33:54 Yeah. I like this one. My final one, I'm going to go back to the passing touchdown marker. And, and this is, it's not the immovable Ford's object. You know, although it's, One of these things is going to break. And these things are this. Kyler Murray has not had a two passing touchdown game this season. He has not thrown for two touchdowns once this year. So we're betting it.

34:21 Because the Lions have not not given up two touchdowns passing. Every single game this year, the Lions defense has given up two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And there's Chuck is in there. Bryce Young is in there. Gino Smith is in there. Jacoby Brissett is in there. Kyler is one of these things is going to have to battle. But at the end of the day, I like this matchup.

34:48 And I've been the fancy pros quarterback episode. I kind of think Kyler, even though he has been a relative disappointment for the season and how successful the team has been, they are dying, dying to get Justin Jefferson more involved. This is one of those spots. Lions in overall coverage, 22 of 32 for wide receiver overall coverage. Also 27 of 32 because I think TJ Hawkinson is kind of sneaky in this spot. And I think they might be able to steal one with a Jefferson and late with a Hawkinson touchdown. And this is a big plus money play.

35:23 It's like around plus 125 to 130 right now for two touchdowns. He hasn't done it and the Lions haven't not done it. And I'm going to bet on the plus money for this undefeated team and Kyler Murray to throw for two touchdowns. See if we can get this one. as I play with a little bit of fire. All right, those are our 10 prop bets that we are locked into, but we're not done because we got to talk touchdowns.

35:46 Before we do, if you guys are looking for an edge in your touchdown bets, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bets and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets. Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today. We both had our touchdowns last week. Yay on us. We're on like even-ish money. So it's time to get some of that ROI in here. So Erickson, talk me through where you're going with your touchdown calls.

36:16 I just hope that one of Kyler Murray's passing touchdowns goes to my guy here, TJ Hawkinson, plus 260 to score any time touchdown. If you guys have been keeping track, the only thing that I've been hitting on when it comes to touchdowns is tight ends that have faced the Lions.

36:29 That's every single one of my anytime.

36:32 Well, remember our did you hear our stat? Remember our stat? We've only hit touchdowns from tight ends this year. Every single touchdown that has been called on this show has been from a tight end. What is more granular and ridiculous is that you have only hit them against Lions.

36:45 That's actually and we may be running out of time where this is the juicy matchup because Brian Branch is obviously back now. They're going to get Kirby Joseph back as another safety. So we just got to take advantage of the matchups while we can. I know that Seth actually gave out this pick on the best bet show.

37:01 And I couldn't agree more. I mean, the tight ends have feasted against the Lions defense this year. Kyler Murray has a good connection with TJ Hawkinson. Hawkinson scored a touchdown last week in another good matchup against the Colts. So I think that the touchdown streak continues for Hawkinson here.

37:14 So I'm going to take him at plus 260. And then my other one, more of a long shot fun bet on Sunday Night Football. is Jeremy McNichols, plus 430 to score an anytime touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles. So originally I was looking at Rashad White at obviously some shorter odds, closer to like plus 110, plus 150, because Ja'Cory Ogroski-Merritt is out for the commanders. We're expecting Rashad White to kind of fill that RB1 role. And Rashad White's anytime touchdown bet was actually a five-star bet on the anytime touchdown report. But as I looked a little bit more into it, I was trying to remember exactly Who was the goal line back the last time we saw the Commanders play against your San Francisco 49ers on

37:56 Monday night a couple weeks ago?

37:58 And it wasn't actually Rashad White. It wasn't Austin Eckler.

38:02 It was actually Jeremy McNichols, who had three red zone touches in that game. And actually, yeah, he had three red zone touches. He had also had a goal line carry against the 49ers back in week six. And he also scored a 31-yard touchdown, but it was called back on a penalty. And I can't tell you, Welsh, I can't tell you how many times we've seen this where one week a player scores a touchdown that's called back because of a penalty. And then the next week or the next game, they just run the same play and then end up scoring the touchdown. So I'm going to be backing that here with Jeremy Nichols to score a touchdown for the Washington Commanders. The Eagles have allowed the 10th most rushing touchdowns this year. And they allowed a

38:46 rushing touchdown to Ja'Cory Krawski-Merritt back in week one. So that's going to be my long shot anytime touchdown bed.

38:52 Who do you do more shows with, Worm or me?

38:55 You.

38:55 All right.

38:57 I mean, I guess we're both W's.

38:58 We're both W's. All right.

39:00 I'll accept it. I'll take one of those. I'm not offended by it. We're both W's and I like Worm. But that hurt. That hurt. But I'm surprised I haven't done that with you, like Bogman to you or anything like that.

39:10 All right.

39:11 Touchdown calls for me for this week. We are obligated to both pick a tight end every single week. If we don't, you should be scared. And I'm going to go with Hunter Henry. And one of those reasons, I got to pull this back up here. Obviously, I like the Patriots in this matchup, but the Dolphins have given up up six touchdowns to tight ends on the season.

39:34 They've given up four in the last two weeks. And they have given up a touchdown in four of the last five games. Hunter Henry has been a major target. We're getting it at plus 160. Eli Raritan is probably more fun. I didn't decide to pick that one. But Hunter Henry has definitely been getting those targets. And especially if we're going to have A.J. Brown, I think you could be seeing a little bit more running from Drake May.

39:54 Get into the red zone. Pop it over to Hunter Henry because the coverage. It ain't good. It ain't good on the Dolphins' side. As a matter of fact, I was going to give you that number. Yeah, they rank 31 of 32 defensive grade against tight ends. Linebacker coverage, 31 of 32 against tight ends. Safety coverage, 31 of 32.

40:13 And guess what? Cornerbacks, the worst. They can't cover tight ends. They're not good. Hunter Henry, that's my bet there. My long shot, I actually had this other one. I was looking at Ryan Flournoy, and he'll probably end up scoring. Plus 250. I love the Cowboys. I like Flournoy and what he does against the Cardinals. But would you know it?

40:32 Ladd-McConkie is worse odds to score, or better, however you want to look at it, than Ryan Flournoy. Ryan Flournoy is 250. Ladd-McConkie is at plus 280. I give out this narrative on the tailgate. I'm a little bit of a psychopath. That I think coming off of the bye, it is the best shot that this team might be able to reestablish and find themselves in. I don't think the Rams defense has played quite at the level that they think they should have. And I think Ladd-McConkie is going to be one of the key cogs. And I think they're going to go to him early and often in this game. So it's almost three to one worse than Ryan. Ryan Flournoy has better odds to score a touchdown than Ladd-McConkie. You kind of understand it and get it.

41:10 But I'm going to jump in three to one on Ladd-McConkie for my deep shot.

41:14 Did Ladd-McConkie clear the concussion protocol? Yeah. Do we know?

41:18 Yeah, I think he's out of custody.

41:20 No, I remember.

41:20 No, Harbaugh said he was still in concussion protocol after the bye week.

41:24 Well, I have 280. He's out of, yeah, he's out. I think he was in a non-contact jersey, but he was back at practice. That was on Wednesday.

41:32 Well, if there's, for some reason he doesn't go, then we're going to just slide the Ryan Florey and I play in.

41:37 So you have that.

41:38 Yes, Ryan Florey will be my backup.

41:39 Yes, that'll fill right in. So you have that for the record.

41:42 Yeah.

41:42 Yeah.

41:43 Try to put him back in custody protocol. He'll be good. First touchdowns. We didn't mean to do this. And by the way, we cannot both be right because we picked a player in the same game on the same team. So we are heavily invested in the Jacksonville Jaguars for our first touchdown call. So yours is a little bit better odds. Mine's a little bit deeper. So talk us through it.

42:07 I think I like yours more, though, because you're just kind of way more fun. And it's a player that I think we can all kind.

42:12 Of get around.

42:13 Coming off the buy and getting invested. Let's do mine real quick.

42:16 Yeah, let's just throw yours.

42:17 Yours is better. Well, my deep one is Travis Hunter. And, you know, you've been kind of seeing that. They get into those red zone packages. They start to throw him out. Coming off of the buy? And then wanting to make a statement right out of it. We don't know the space of where Brian Thomas is going to be. But how about they package in, when you get into the red zone, Travis Hunter, first touchdown, 30-1. That's where I'm going with mine. So mine has some, you know, it's some cool vibes and it's some theory. And it's coming off the bye and getting him more involved as a receiver.

42:47 Yours has better odds and for right reasons here. But you're still getting 17-1 on yours.

42:53 Yeah, Chris Rodriguez is the one for me to score the first touchdown in the Jaguars Colts game. This one comes courtesy of the first touchdown score report on betting pros that this is their highest rated bet. And obviously, because these bets are long shots, you're not going to see five star ratings most of the time. But in terms of just the looking at the expected value based on Chris Rodriguez's role, based on the odds that you're getting it 17 to one, I mean, you're getting a goal line running back on a team that's favored by 10 points at home, right? That's kind of like the process that I'm just kind of following here where the most likely outcome is the Jaguars score first in this game and they give it to one of the running

43:29 backs in the red zone and he punches in for the first score. So Chris Rodriguez, I was actually surprised by this. So he has a goal line carrying every single game this season. Every single game. I was really shocked by that. I know that he had been mixing around in short yardage situations. I know Bajal Tootin is obviously still using that role as well, but every single game he's had at least one carry inside the five yard line. He hasn't scored every single week, but 10 red zone carries on the season and he's coming off a season high in carries. So I think that if he's on a heater to start on the opening drive against this Colts defense that can't stop the run, just traded away one of their defensive linemen, man, one of

44:06 these Jags is going to score first and it's going to be a dagger. If it's Brian Thomas Jr. That just ends up.

44:12 I was literally going to say, it's going to be a handoff to Bayshell Tootin who throws it to Brian Thomas. That's what it's going to be. Our guys won't even be on the field. So That'll be fun. Yeah, I like it. It's good analysis, good breakdowns. We're invested on the Jags on the first touchdown. Where are you guys at?

44:26 You can drop your comments below your favorite first touchdowns, your favorite touchdown calls and any props that you've got. Hopefully we can repeat the good week from last week into this one. Hopefully you guys are digging it. Download the betting pros app. Check out all the stuff we've been talking about. You can see on the app from the cheat sheet to the analyzer, plus all the tools as well. You want to dig into some of the systems, the tools. We're talking about smart money in there. You get personalized and set picks to you, sometimes based on like your betting habits. It's going to kind of show you some bets as far as the higher ratings that you might be interested in. Just go and trial it today.

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45:08 Boom.

45:08 That's it. That's all we got. Hopefully you guys make some cash. Looking forward to talk to you next week. That's Andrew Erickson. I'm Chris Welsh.

45:15 Good luck.

45:16 And we'll talk to you next time.

45:17 Bye. Peace. Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast.

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