Week 8 Fantasy Football Key Questions: Must-Start Players, Risky Rankings & Potential Breakouts! (Ep. 2307)

0:00 Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmorris. On this Friday morning, we are running through some Week 8 key questions ahead of the slate. Fitz, if you can step away from your Celebrating the World series for a moment. I mean, get over it, buddy. It was two days ago.

0:21 Did you have a chance to watch Thursday Night Football last night?

0:24 I did.

0:25 That was like the dessert on top of a big meal. You know, go to an Italian restaurant and feast and then have a little tiramisu on top of that.

0:33 Best, best dessert there is, by the way. Yeah. So it was kind of a fun game.

0:39 Interesting to see Christian Watson do the, you know, like Stone Cold Steve Austin from the Attitude Era, go to the hospital and come back and, you know. Throw some people around the ring upon his return. Yeah, it was an interesting game. Packers still can't run the ball. I saw the Panthers have fired Avero, their defensive coordinator. That was inevitable. Crazy that they could not get any pass.

1:03 I don't know if they touched Jordan Love last night. Like, I don't know if they ever knocked him down. It was kind of bizarre.

1:09 So, yeah, that was... The Panthers, boy, man, like, they.

1:17 are leading the division still, I believe, but that is a really log jammed NFC South. And I think the two and five Buccaneers are the best team in that division.

1:27 Yeah, they are.

1:27 They are still leading three and four Falcons or three or four bucks or two and five seats or two and five. So to your point, very, very much. Everybody jumbled there.

1:35 Yeah.

1:35 That Christian Watson storyline is one of the most incredible things I could recall. I do not have much of a memory of players doing that, where they go to the hospital and, to check out their chest and then come back. And then not just come back to the stadium, but come back into the game. Really a crazy storyline.

1:51 Like you said, Packers still can't run the ball. I mean, Jacobs did get two touchdowns, so it kind of saves the day for fantasy managers. But 21 attempts for 39 yards is just disgusting there. By the way, the final in this game, Packers 27, Panthers 19. Felt like I should say that as well. Also, one other quick response to what you just said, Fitz. I've never had tiramisu, so go ahead and Enjoy that as well.

2:14 Yeah.

2:15 Wow. I mean, I'm not really shocked considering the source here, but I'm.

2:19 Not even entirely sure what it is. This is like a type of cake or something.

2:22 Oh my Patty, go ahead. Yeah.

2:25 It's like, uh, I don't know how to describe it.

2:28 It's got, if it's made well, it's heaven.

2:31 It's heaven.

2:32 And, uh, it's got, it's got some alcohol in it too. And you can taste the alcohol if it's made well. So, um, yeah, I don't know what it's, sort of like a layered dessert there's cream there's cake okay the cake is soaked in like booze basically it's it's that.

2:48 Sounds worth trying pretty it's like the prettier friend um to rum cake okay yeah all.

2:55 Right yeah i'll have to i'll have to usually when i see it on the menu i'm like that just sounds too fancy for me i'll get something else but i'll i'll give that a try really good yeah you sold me uh d-ray what were your takeaways from the game last night.

3:06 I mean, the Christian Watson of it all was like a WWE moment, just like Patty just laid out here. Like they should have had entrance music. They should have had fireworks going off. They should have had, you know, like he's like hopping his elbows as he comes back in. It was something like I have never seen a spectacle like that at all. But that was exactly what I thought it was as far as like from a medical standpoint.

3:27 He fell on the ball after the big play. I was like, OK, maybe it's a rib. He rolls over. I'm like, OK, he doesn't look like he's in like respiratory distress, but maybe something else is going on. Like they're probably like going to get him checked out because if it is a rib worried about lungs, what you know, what have you and stuff like that and a lot of different ways I could take that. But. And then it comes out like he's coughing up blood, but he was okay, got checked out, probably got a CT and what have you. So Christian Watson, the other thing about this is he does have a rib injury now moving forward, so we have to account for that. But I was like, I've never seen that happen, guys, in any football game

4:04 where it was like guy gets brought to a hospital, questionable to return. We get a WWE moment. He comes back in, catches more passes, adds to a really strong, ridiculous stat line because, again– Christian Watson is him this season. And, you know, they were talking about on the broadcast, what is the backbone of the Green Bay Packers? And I'm like, oh, it's the defense. I'm like, no, it's not. It's the passing game. It's been the passing game. The passing game is the backbone of this freaking team. If the passing game doesn't succeed right now, this team's not winning any games.

4:36 Because like we just talked about, they can't run the ball. And to add to the Josh Jacobs, even on top of all of it, 27 touches in For 52 yards. Oh, my. Like, first of all, that workload. I hope that after this being just his second game and a ramp up, I'm just hoping for all the fantasy managers that have him out there. Like, we don't see any kind of compensatory hammy pull or anything like that because that is a substantial workload for a guy only in his second game, no training camp and what have you. But, Pat, your thoughts on that? Like, any worries about Jacobs with this kind of workload in just his second game back?

5:15 Pretty wild, but he's always been kind of over the course. I'm not surprised he's shouldering a big load. And yeah, it was interesting. By the way, about the Christian Watson thing, I think Green Bay might be the only place where that could happen.

5:28 Just like come back.

5:31 If you've ever been to Green Bay, it's almost more of a village, a large.

5:35 Village than a city.

5:35 The hospital had to be close, man. For them to get him in and out that fast.

5:40 The streets of Green Bay during a Packer game. Talk about ghost town. I'm sure they were flying.

5:47 I was going to say, they tossed him in the ambulance and they're doing 95 down the highway and there's nobody there like a zombie apocalypse.

5:54 I'm sure any fans in the way would happily get.

5:57 Out of the way.

5:59 Sorry, I said highway. Should I have said dirt road?

6:04 All right. We'll start getting into some of these games here on the rest of the slate. Reminder for everybody, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings. Four teams on by again this week. It's the Texans, the Saints, the Giants, and the 49ers. So once again, some really good players who are on by this week. That's pretty much every week at this point in the year. Guys, let's start off with a game with a lot of really fun players.

6:27 Ravens at Bills. I don't understand why this isn't a Sunday night game or at least in the late afternoon. It is crazy to me that they would put Josh Allen versus Lamar at 1 p.m. Eastern, but that's where we're at. This game is tied for the highest total of the week at 54 and a half. The last time these two teams squared off, it was one of the best high scoring games of last season back in week one when it was on Sunday night football last year.

6:49 With this really high total and all these fun players, and it does seem pretty clear that Lamar is coming back this week. It has not been made official yet as of the time of this recording. It seems pretty obvious that he's going to play. Is there anybody that you are actually fading in this one with the high total relative to consensus, D-Bro?

7:05 So I'm going to answer your question with a question to start this off on. Where is Lamar Jackson and James Cook in ECR right now? Because– I think I'm a step below. I still have them both as an RB1 and a QB1, but I think I'm a little bit behind ECR.

7:21 They are in the same spot. They are both fifth in their positional ranking. QB5, running back five.

7:28 I've got Lamar Jackson at QB6, and I've got James Cook at RB9. Again, I still think they're QB1, RB1. Again, I do worry about which version of Lamar Jackson are we going to get because While the Ravens can look at this through rose-colored glasses and talk about, oh, he's healthy and it's full practice, we are a week removed from Lamar still saying, hey, my ankle hurts. I'm not 100%.

7:54 Another week from that, I do not think he's going to be 100%. And we've seen a less than 100% version of Lamar Jackson. And at times, it's been good. And at times, it's been quite terrible. So I want to stay a little bit below ECR on Lamar Jackson, but also the James Cook of all this. The Baltimore Ravens run defense has been elite over the last five games.

8:18 Third lowest explosive run rate, ninth lowest Russian success rate, sixth lowest rushing yards over expectation per attempt. So James Cook, can he get the volume? Can he get two touchdowns? Can he still be a really strong RB1? Sure. But I also won't be surprised if his stat line at the end of the day looks really nasty, but he gets there as far as an RB1 for fantasy purposes.

8:41 To the Lamar point, I feel like last year, and I could be misremembering, but I do think last year when he had come back but was like clearly very limited and banged up for several weeks, he was still on the injury report throughout those weeks. And it was like not practicing Wednesday, limited Thursday, limited Friday, and then he was playing every week. I don't recall any of those weeks being he was full go just right off the bat Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and every report of the week.

9:06 I wonder if they learned their lesson last year and really did like give him just the extra weekend and he will be something close to, you know, a hundred percent or, or, you know, close enough to, to do a facsimile of it. So I, I'm, Oh, I'm open to the possibility that that's wrong and that he comes back and, and does look really limited, but I'm hoping that they kind of learned that lesson a year ago.

9:26 D bro. I, I fully believe teams lie all the time on injury reports. Like even last week, it was like a day where it was like, Oh, he's limited practice. And then it was like, He's in street clothes, and he didn't do anything in practice, but Baltimore put him as a limited practice participant. And it's like, he didn't do anything in practice today? What are we talking about here?

9:46 So I'll take it with a grain of salt. I hope we do see the better version of Lamar, but I'm worried that maybe we see some kind of shade of gray in the middle of that.

9:57 Fits where you're at in this game.

10:00 I am a little lower on Derek Henry than ECR. ECR is at RB4. I've got him at RB7.

10:06 And maybe Lamar's return. Yeah.

10:09 Like with Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens the last three games, Henry has averaged 3.5 yards per carry and has not scored a touchdown. And over the first four weeks of the season with Lamar playing, Henry had seven touchdowns, an average 4.2 yards per carry. I do wonder if he's starting to show his age a little bit, but obviously the touchdown disparity kind of speaks volumes about Lamar's influence. And Lamar's just a rainmaker for his teammates, man.

10:37 But still, RB4 does seem a little too aggressive, even against kind of a mediocre Bills run defense. Sorry, Bills fans. Oh, and about this game being at noon. The Sunday night game is Commanders Eagles. Is there any good reason why they can't flex games into the Sunday night lineup like in week eight rather than waiting until the very end?

11:00 I thought I read somewhere that they could and just didn't because they've moved it up earlier in the season when they can do it. And they just and I don't know why they didn't. I mean, you could have put Vikings-Lions at Sunday night. It doesn't just have to be Ravens-Bills, but yeah, it just feels very weird to see two of the three or four best quarterbacks in football at this time. I feel like you don't often see it in that one o'clock Eastern window. I'm totally with you on Derrick Henry, by the way. Fitz, I've been kind of talking about him as a sell on our Buys and Sells show with Erickson the last couple of weeks. I do think Lamar coming back obviously goes a long way towards making his stat lines look better,

11:36 but That game against the Browns is what really kind of scared me of like we've seen Tony Pollard go off against them and everything like that. And 17 for 58, no touchdown is like, man, you're even with Tyler Huntley there. You're doing that against the Browns run defense. So I'm kind of nervous about I'm not nervous about Henry being terrible rest of season. I think there's a floor of volume here and there will be a floor of touchdowns with Lamar is back. But I do worry a little bit about the kind of high level upside there fits.

12:01 And it's not just him. It's the offensive line being kind of banged up too.

12:04 So maybe you want, he might not play in this game. We don't have word on that yet. So yeah, for sure.

12:09 For me, it's also about splitting hairs. Like I have Kyron and I have Javante Williams ahead of him. So I just think there's better plays this week as far as rankings.

12:17 Yeah. Kyron is an easy play for me ahead of Henry. Honestly, I, I, I'm surprised by that ranking for sure. Just quickly. Cause this is such a big game. Who do you guys think actually wins this spreads three and a half. Buffalo.

12:30 I thought the spread was been too close. I think it's Buffalo and I think they cover.

12:35 I think Buffalo too, but I wouldn't bet it. I think it'll be a close game. I think it'll be come down to the last couple of possessions. Yeah.

12:42 I kind of think, I kind of think in this, again, if Lamar's healthy, you should just auto bet at either of these quarterbacks if they were three and a half point underdogs. But I do expect the bills to win this game. I do kind of like the under a little bit too. Titans at Bengals is next up. Obviously, we're not expecting another 150 combined yards and three touchdowns from Tony Pollard this week. But how do you expect him to follow up his massive week seven performance fits?

13:05 Yeah, before the three touchdown game, Pollard was RB 19 and a half point PPR fantasy scoring RB 25 and fantasy points per game after the three touchdown game. He's now RB 15 and PPR fantasy half point PPR scoring. RB18 in fantasy points per game. So this is kind of a tough matchup. Bengals have been much better against the run ever since they traded their first-round pick for Dexter Lawrence. And now the run defense, 7th in DVOA, 14th in EPA per rush. Pollard's getting a lot of work.

13:38 He's averaging 17.5 carries a game, 73.8 rushing yards per game. Not really doing much as a pass catcher, though. 11 catches for 50 yards. I guess the expectation is something like 70 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards. And the difference between a good day and a bad day is whether he gets in the end zone, which seems kind of 50-50. The one thing I would worry about, and I'm going to try to do a little more reading on this before I have to make the one lineup decision I have on the team where I have Tony Pollard and other good options. I've heard him mentioned as a possible trade candidate.

14:15 And.

14:16 the possibility of Jonathan Taylor getting traded had me drop him from like RB seven to RB 16, because I don't think if they, if there's a reasonable chance, Taylor gets traded next week. He's not carrying the ball 20 times for the Colts this week. Um, because why would you jeopardize your trade chip, uh, by risking injury?

14:39 And I don't know.

14:41 I just have to see if there's maybe more, Are there any flames behind the smoke with Tony Pollard?

14:48 D-Bro, Tony Pollard is RB18 in consensus and half PPR scoring coming off of his huge day. Is that too high, too low, or just right for you?

14:55 I think it's just right. I like Tony Pollard this week. And to Fitzy's point, yeah, some of the metrics look like– I feel like prop Cincinnati's run defense up. Also, over the last five games, they're also allowing the highest explosive run rate, the fourth most– rushing yards over expectation per attempt and the 12th highest yards at the contact per attempt so like i think some of the bengal stuff paints them as being a strong run defense i think some of that is when teams have been behind and they have to abandon the run and they're not tested or giving up touchdowns and stuff um i think power can if he gets the volume i i think this is one of the game like i again fitzy like i take the other side of the coin only in

15:34 the sense of like The compensation, like I agree with your Jonathan Taylor point, and I fully think that absolutely makes sense for the Colts because we know who Jonathan Taylor is, one of the handful best running backs in the NFL. You don't want to get him hurt. Tony Pollard's not going to fetch much in a trade. So if anything, I think this is like a feature him to try to bump the trade stock a little bit.

15:57 It's like if he comes off of two fantastic games, you're almost enticing and baiting a team to be like, oh, Tony Pollard. Maybe I'll give you a fourth instead of a fifth or a fifth instead of a sixth or a pick swap and what have you. So I think Pollard could be featured. And the other thing about it, like Tennessee Titans don't have a whole lot else going on right with their offense in general. So Cardinal Tate probably gets shadowed by DJ Turner. I think we could see like Wondell Robinson pop off of the big game if Cam Ward can deliver decent targets. But Pollard should be the engine of this offense where it's like Tennessee, if they're smart, They feed Pollard. They try to grind out the clock, limit the possessions for Cincinnati, and maybe

16:36 just strangle time of possession if they can run the ball effectively. So I think the ranking is right, say all that.

16:43 He's back-to-back with Ollie Gordon. Who would you guys rather start? Because to me, I'd rather start Ollie Gordon.

16:49 I have Ollie right ahead of him.

16:51 Gordon's 19 and Pollard's 18 in consensus.

16:55 See, I have Ollie right ahead of him.

16:56 Me too.

16:57 Yeah, I would agree with you guys on that one.

16:59 Okay.

17:00 Let's go to the next game here. Cardinals at Cowboys. This is the other game on the slate with a consensus total of 54.5. Two games with that high of a total in the same week. It's pretty fun. Though, the Cardinals have only averaged about 20 points per game this season and only a little more than 18 points per game in their last three games. Can their offense live up to the high total expectations in this one against a bad Cowboys defense? Debra, I'll start with you here.

17:25 I think they can. It really comes down to... What do we get out of Michael Wilson in this game, who his efficiency has dropped off over the last few games? Dallas still over the last five games, giving up the 12th most receiving fantasy points per game, eighth most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers. So it's like I want to believe in a bounce back game for Michael Wilson. If that happens, I think Jacoby Bursette can do it. He needs somebody else to carry him. Like, also, like, help carry this passing attack. Like, Trey McBride's going to be awesome week in, week out. We know that at this point. So, but who can also help them move the ball and put up points? So, really, this kind

18:06 of comes down to, like, if the Cardinals can keep pace, can, you know, help, like, go over this really aggressive, not aggressive, but the high total, I think Michael Wilson has to show up at the big game, too, this week. Yeah.

18:20 I do think it's an aggressive total, honestly. I like the under in this game.

18:23 Feels a little bit, yeah. Like 54 and a half?

18:25 Really surprised me, honestly.

18:27 51 and a half? I get it. But 54 and a half?

18:30 That's one of the highest totals we've seen all season. And yeah, it felt weird to me to see that. Michael Wilson, to your point, D-Bro, like... If you look at half PPR scoring his seven games this season, he has two games inside the top 24 at wide receiver. And one of those is only wide receiver 20. So he has one game higher than wide receiver 20 this season.

18:49 And yet I think it's, I mean, he's still being ranked obviously inside the top 20 wide receiver 18 in consensus this week. So like he is being ranked as if he will outperform what he has been every week, except for one throughout the year so far. Fitz, where are you at on not just the Cardinals offense, but Michael Wilson specifically?

19:06 Down on it. I have bet the under on this game. I get that the Dallas defense is terrible, no denying that, but so is Jacoby Brissett. He's averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. His average air yards per pass attempt this season, 6.8. His average air yards per completion this year, 4.9 yards. There's just no verticality to the Arizona passing game. Trey McBride is a stud, but the Arizona receivers, they're just bad.

19:34 I'm well below consensus on Michael Wilson, too. I know it didn't seem like Marvin Harrison Jr. was doing anything for the Cardinals before he got traded, but he was at least freeing up Michael Wilson. So before the trade, Wilson had a 27% target share. Since the trade, 16% target share. And Wilson is averaging 1.39 yards per route run this season. I just think he's miscast as a number one receiver, but because he's number one, he might get a lot of Joey Porter, Jr. this week, who's still pretty good. And this was a bad passing game to begin with, and the loss of left tackle Paris Johnson to a torn biceps has not helped. So in the three games since the Paris Johnson injury, the Cardinals are averaging 4.7 yards per play. Anything below 5 in

20:22 yards per play is pretty terrible. So I'm not as down on the Arizona running game. It seems like Jeremiah Love is going to play this week, and I would start him if he is, but I don't want anything to do with the Arizona passing game. I'm six spots below consensus on Jacoby Brissett. I've got him QB 16, like no interest in playing him whatsoever. Yeah, I mean, which means he's probably getting 400 yards in garbage.

20:49 I'm below consensus on him, too, Fitzy. Like, I think there are concerns. Also, it's like I trust Caleb Williams in a horrible, horrible start. I trust a lot of these. We have a lot of QB twos and really good spots this week. So, like, I'm with you on all of that. The one guy I also want to shout out here, and this is kind of going back to the Makai Lemonwell. If Jacoby Brissett can have a good game, I think Kendrin Bourne is a really good, like strong flex this week because Dallas has been God awful against the, against the slot. Like over the last five games, they're giving up the most yards per target, the most receiving yards and the ninth most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. Makai Lemon last week, wide receiver 13 in

21:29 weekly scoring. So yeah, Like, I'm not telling anybody to rush out and, like, start Kendrick Bourne as, like, a confident wide receiver, too. But if Jacoby Brissett can get it done, Bourne could put up wide receiver three numbers in this one.

21:41 I tell you what, D-Bro, I'm starting Kendrick Bourne in a super flex spot in a dynasty league where there's just no QBs available. And I got Stroud on by. I picked him up.

21:50 In our staff league, our 14-teamer. Like, I'm flexing him this week. Like, it is what it is, dude.

21:56 Just a note on the Cowboys defense. I'm not saying they're good, but the last three weeks they've given up 24, 23, and 21 points. So, you know, those are amazing numbers, but just maybe not quite the sieve that they have been at times. Again, I just think this total is too high at the end of the day. We're all in agreement there on liking the under here. Basketball season is here and a new way to trade on it is this new prediction market called Polymarket. Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. They are so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. Every bucket, every block, every scintillating matchup

22:34 in basketball trades on Polymarket. So download the Polymarket app today and use FPPod when you sign up. That's F-P-P-O-D to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. All right, guys, another really good game that's in the early window is Vikings at Lions. We have arguably the best defense in football versus arguably the best offense in football. Who wins that side of the ball, Fitz?

22:57 Maybe something close to a stalemate, but I maybe lean a little toward the Vikings. The Minnesota defense is basically the same as it was last year with some minor personnel changes. And in their two regular season games last year, Vikings and Lions, Jared Goff did pretty well in the first meeting, which was in Detroit, 284 passing yards, two touchdowns.

23:22 Sam Laporta had 97 yards and a touchdown. Jameson Williams, 66 yards and a touchdown. Amin Rao St. Brown, nine catches for 97 yards. Neither of the running backs really did much, though. Lions had 305 total yards of offense, 24 points, kind of an average offensive performance in the NFL. The rematch was in Minnesota in Week 17. Lyons scored 10 points and had 231 yards of offense. Goff, 197 yards, a touchdown, two interceptions. Amin Ra, 8 for 68. None of the other pass catchers really did much. It was Isaac Tesla with the touchdown catch. Gibbs only had a combined 64 yards. So Gibbs didn't really do much in either game, even though he was sharing work with David Montgomery, and now he's getting all of it.

24:09 I'm still starting most of my lines this week.

24:12 I'm benching Jamison Williams in one league, but that's probably like the best and deepest team I have in any league this season. And, you know, I've got the luxury of being able to bench him and steer away from a tough matchup.

24:26 Dubrow, where do you think it for this game?

24:28 I think the Lions win this game. And I think this comes down to two distinct factors. Well, actually three. Jared Goff against the Blitz, like Patty kind of talked about. We know Brian Flores is a madman. Goff has been really good over the last two seasons, really good against the Blitz this season. Again, amongst 29 qualifying quarterbacks, Goff versus the Blitz, 16 yards per attempt, third in passing success rate. So he's going to have to succeed against the Blitz because Brian Flores is bringing the house on 70 to 80 percent of the defensive snaps. That's a given.

25:01 But if golf can hold up against that and to Fitzy's point, I think this is quietly a really, really good spot for Jameer Gibbs. The Minnesota Vikings run defense has had a lot of holes very quietly. Now, some of this is when the team gets up, teams can abandon the run game and stuff. So really, we haven't seen them show a lot like on paper as far as box scores, a lot of issues. But in the last five weeks, the Minnesota Vikings have have allowed the ninth most yards after contact per attempt, the 13th most yards before contact per attempt, and the fifth highest missed tackle rate. And now they're going to face one of the most efficient, best tackle-breaking running backs in the NFL. Yeah, Jameer Gibbs can eat them alive this week. As well

25:45 as for the third factor here, which I think decides the game. Kyler Murray's been awful for most of this season. And yes, the Lions' pass defense has not been good. Their pass rush has been stellar over the last five games. Fourth best pressure rate, 12th best in quick pressure. If they can get home with the pass rush, it could be the absolute undoing for Kyler Murray.

26:08 Also, just generally, I think people have been seeing, rightly so, the Lions as a come-one-come-all matchup for all their pass catchers, quarterbacks. They're going to be a different team now with Brian Branch back. And we saw it against the Packers last week. Jordan Love and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden didn't have great games. Golden should have had a great game. He dropped some passes again. And now Kirby Joseph is back at practice.

26:36 So the Lions have two. That's probably the best safety combination in the league. One of the best safety combinations in the league. And when those guys are back, I don't think the Lions are going to be a pushover in the passing game anymore.

26:48 I just I feel like this is the the comeback to earth or the the loss of the Vikings have been needing to get because they've been living on the back of their defense. Kyler Murray has been god awful and they cannot put up any points. It's like if the Lions can muster, let's just say 21 points in this game, guys. Can the Vikings score 21 points? Have they shown that with consistency? Can they at least even meet that mark if the Lions could put up three touchdowns?

27:15 I was going to ask on the total, 45 and a half. It sounds like you like the under.

27:19 I want the under. No, I want the under. I don't believe in Kyler Murray. Haven't and won't.

27:24 I'm not touching it. I'm not betting. I like betting overs at Ford Field. I don't like the over in this game, but I'm not betting an under at Ford Field.

27:33 By the way, we talked about this on the tailgate on Monday this week. Fitz, you weren't on that show, obviously. Debro and I and Erickson kind of agreed that if you think the Lions win this game, it might be smart to place a bet right now on the Vikings to miss the playoffs. You get a pretty good number there with their 6-0 start. If you really don't believe in them, if they lose this game, the schedule starts to look real tough.

27:52 Moving forward.

27:53 Yeah, the next month or so is really hard for them. November is going to be a big month.

27:56 And if you'd like them to win this game, then I don't think you can make that bet because at 7-0, at a certain point, the math just kicks in. But there's still time, I think, to get them to miss the playoffs with pretty good money if you think they lose this one. So we're kind of all on the same page there. Colts at Jaguars next game up here.

28:12 For as much as we have all loved Parker Washington all season long, he only has one top 24 wide receiver finish in his last four games. What sort of stat line do you guys expect from Washington coming out of the bye week against the Colts fits?

28:24 Yeah, he's had some variants. Some big games.

28:29 Five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. Seven for 98 against the Broncos. Six for 124 and two TDs against the Eagles. And then a couple of duds mixed in. one catch for seven yards against the Bengals. When we last saw him before the Jaguars week seven by 11 targets against the Texans, but only four catches for 64 yards. That said, I think the Colts should be a pretty easy mark for him. They just sold off two of their best players, Quentin Nelson and DeForest Buckner.

28:59 Fire sale probably isn't over yet. I would imagine morale in the Colts locker room can't be very high. You would think that the Jaguars are going to have a good day. So I'll say five for 95 and a touchdown.

29:12 Yeah.

29:13 I'm expecting the Jacks to smash in this game, to be perfectly honest with you. They're 10 point favorites. And I'm like, I'll happily lay the points with them. I think the Colts see the writing on the wall and this one might get really ugly when, when a team is demoralized the way I think Indy could be. That's just not tenable in an NFL game, especially against a really good team on the road coming off a bye.

29:33 So I'm with you there. Debra, what do you think about Washington's stat line for the week?

29:37 Seven for 90 in a touchdown. And to the point about the down games, the one, the Houston game, he dropped the freaking touchdown in the end zone. So if he comes down with that, better day. The Cincinnati game, I also want to give context about that. He got shadowed by D.J. Turner on 64% of his plays. So D.J.

29:53 Turner erases wide receiver ones. We know this. This is a fact. Just death taxes and D.J. Turner. But to the Parker Washington of those all, Colts have the 12th highest single high rate, 52%. Washington is absolutely shredded single high. 32% target per route run rate, 3.09 yards per route run amongst 86 qualifying wide receivers. No biggie. That's just 10th and 7th best.

30:18 All good.

30:18 Just elite numbers.

30:20 Where do you rank for you then, Debra, if you love this mashup so much?

30:23 Let me be confident. Wide receiver one. I've got him at Parker, Washington. Wide receiver 10 for the week. I also want to give a shout out for this. Brenton Strange, baby. He is a confident tight end one for me this week. He is also shredded single high. And I don't know if a lot of people realize out there that Brenton Strange has, one, become the clear number two target for the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack. And number two, he's... tight end 12 and fantasy points per game. I don't, I don't know if anybody talks about Brenton strangers. He is a tight end one in fantasy.

30:54 That's exactly where he's ranked for this week. He's tight in 12.

30:57 He's tight end seven. The last three games. He's good without, without having scored a touchdown.

31:03 I know he's good. He's elite on a per route basis. And also he is shredded. Single high. Back to the single high of it all. Britton Strange, I mean, neck and neck with Parker Washington, 30% target per route run rate, 2.82 yards per route run. That's, whoo, baby.

31:22 You're saying he's number one in their passing game ahead of Parker Washington?

31:27 Versus single high, he's close. Let me pull up the Parker numbers. So Parker's 32%, Strange is 30%. I mean, he's neck and neck with him as far as like targets and production.

31:41 Two guys over 30% is wild.

31:45 Strange is tight end 12 in ECR.

31:48 For this week, yes. I want to be above that.

31:52 I got him at tight end 10 and I'm willing to push him much higher.

31:54 I've got him at nine and that feels too low.

31:57 He's tied in 12. Some of the guys ahead of him, Kyle Pitts, Hunter Henry, TJ Hawkinson, Travis Kelsey, Sam Laporta, Dalton Kincaid are the next five names ahead of him. Six names.

32:05 Screw it. I'm pushing him to tight end eight right now. Doing it. Yeah.

32:09 All right. Raiders at Jets. Omar Cooper Jr. has been terrific in his first two healthy starts in the NFL with 100 plus yards and a touchdown in both games. He's now wider receiver 24 consensus rankings for the week. I'll double check. See if that's moved at all too, because I put this together. couple days ago but uh he was wide receiver 24 and i put this together is that too high too low or just right and as i toss it to you i'll double check he is oh he's actually dropped down he's now at wide receiver 28 so uh is wide receiver 28 too high too low or just right d.

32:39 Bro uh too low i've got about wide receiver 18 like i think he's a strong wide receiver too this week i think gino shreds this secondary i think omar cooper jr has been crushing and Before I get to the Omar Cooper Jr. stuff, I think we get the Garrett Wilson squeaky wheel game. I think he's going to go out and just dominate the Raiders secondary, so I'm going to be aggressive. Where's Garrett Wilson in the ECR right now, Worm? Because I can promise you I'm perfect.

33:03 He's wide receiver 17.

33:05 Yeah, I've got him at wide receiver 13 right now.

33:08 And that does include Golden and Christian Watson and Tedra McMillan and Jalen Coker are all ahead of him, so that still is reflected in the rankings. If you remove the guys who have already played, he'd be wide receiver 13, but he's 17 on the week.

33:19 I'm putting him to wide receiver 11. I think Garrett Wilson just cooks this week. But Omar Cooper Jr., God, he's been so good, man. Wide receiver 6, wide receiver 9 over the last two games. The Raiders against slot receivers over the last five weeks. Fourth most receiving fantasy points per game. Fifth most fantasy points per opportunity. And they've given up the most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Yeah, Cooper's a wide receiver too.

33:46 Why do you think he's gone down in the rankings, Steve Roms?

33:49 I honestly don't– maybe people putting like Emeka if they think he's going to be healthy or Jameson Williams for a big game. Abuka's lower. Who's right above him? Like who are people who love him?

34:01 The four names ahead of Omar Cooper right now are Trey Tucker, Casey Concepcion, Jeremy Bernard, and Jameson Williams.

34:08 Hell no to all those guys. Cooper above all those guys. Fitzy, your thoughts?

34:12 Just that it's Geno Smith and– I know it's a revenge game for Gino Smith, but it's Gino Smith. Gino isn't terrible, but can we trust Gino to maintain consistently high fantasy value for multiple pass catchers the way Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott can?

34:33 That's my issue, and that's why I've.

34:37 Got Cooper at 27 and Garrett Wilson at 18 right now. And maybe we do get the squeaky wheel game for Garrett Wilson because... three games into the season, Garrett Wilson had 21 catches for 243 yards and two touchdowns. Um, he, he was crushing it and he's had 45 or fewer receiving yards in three of his last four games. And over the last two weeks, he's had six catches for 70 yards, no touchdowns. He has expressed frustration, although Wilson clarified the other day that he did not want to be traded and says he's mostly just frustrated that the Jets have been losing. But, um, The thing is, though, Jets actually have a pretty fair amount of pass-catching talent now.

35:21 Wilson is really good. Omar Cooper looks great. Adnai Mitchell's back from a finger injury. He's inconsistent but talented. Jets have two really good young tight ends with Kenyon Sadiq and Mason Taylor. It's a lot of competent targets for Geno Smith to try to get over in fantasy, and there are going to be some guys who go hungry every week.

35:43 Can I give you the pro Gino argument? Sure. You can feel better about it. So we have seen ceiling from Gino Smith. Now has the consistency been there for fantasy and box scores and stuff? No, but quietly on a per drop back basis, he's been very, very good. He has two outings with at least 24 fantasy points.

36:01 So we have seen the ceiling. He hasn't had his full compliment of weapons. Mason Taylor missed a few games. Kenyon Sadiq had a concussion. Adonai Mitchell had the finger injury. Garrett Wilson, one of those games where he was quiet, was also shadowed into a Bolivian by Christian Gonzalez. So, okay, figured he was going to have a down game that week. Also, Geno Smith amongst 34 qualifying passers, ninth in yards per attempt, 12th in passing success rate, second in catchable target rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. So basically every metric I care about, he's playing really good football, but the box scores are not always reflecting it.

36:40 Where are you ranking him this week?

36:42 I've got Geno Smith. Let me see. Where's he at in ECR? Because I know I'm way above him. I've got him at 14th. So I've got him touching. If you were to tell me absolute truth serum, who am I more confident in starting this week? Jacoby Brissett or Geno Smith? I'm starting Geno.

37:02 Yeah. I've got him one spot behind Geno at 17. Or Geno 17, Brissett 16.

37:06 Okay. Yeah.

37:06 I trust Geno more.

37:12 It's game time. The free game day app by fantasy pros is like red zone for your fantasy teams and bets. Follow every play, see highlights and know exactly who to root for all in one place. Download the game day app at fantasy pros.com slash game day app. Then get ready for kickoff. That's fantasy pros.com slash game day app.

37:30 All right, guys, next game here. Browns at Steelers. The three rookie receivers in this game are all ranked close to one another in the consensus rankings for the week. So rank your confidence level and starting Casey Concepcion, Denzel Boston, and Jeremy Bernard. They're within five spots of each other, and they're all inside the top 30 in consensus. So again, rank Concepcion, Boston, and Bernard at D-Bro.

37:50 Casey Concepcion, Jeremy Bernard, and Boston is last, and this comes down to just the matchups. And I just do the version of Aaron Rodgers that we get week to week. Do we get check down version of Aaron Rodgers, and he feeds all the Rasheed Rice type of volume to Jeremy Bernard? Does Aaron Rodgers melt down in the pocket and versus pressure? So the Aaron Rodgers of all of this, I want to put Jeremy first, but I can't. But Casey, you could say a lot of the same things about Deshaun Watson, except over the last few weeks, the Steelers have been getting a lot worse versus slot receivers. In that five-game sample, 10th most receiving fantasy points per game, 11th most fantasy points per game overall to slot receivers.

38:34 Casey is incredibly talented. They've also tightened up their defense against perimeter wide receivers. So for me, the ranking or the confidence level, it's Casey, Jeremy, and then Boston is last.

38:45 Casey, Jeremy, and Boston. By the way, the order in ECR does have Boston last a couple of spots behind them. Bernard and Casey are back to back with Bernard one spot ahead. Fitz, what's your ranking here?

38:58 I've got Boston first, wide receiver 26. Concepcion, wide receiver 29. Bernard, wide receiver 30.

39:05 So I guess as.

39:06 Far as how I want to define the startability of these guys. I guess like reasonably high confidence level for all of them. And they are close together. I just, I personally think Boston is the best player of the three and he gets the most valuable downfield targets. Whereas Concepcion and Bernard are short area receivers. I want the air yards and Boston had the best game of the three the last time they went. What was a week for when the Browns and Steelers played on Thursday night?

39:37 So, yeah, that's it. I mean, I think they're all really playable, but I still want the big play guy.

39:43 Debra, who's your favorite rest of season? I know it's Boston for Fitz because he just thinks he's the best player.

39:48 Boston for you. Boston for you too. Okay. It's really close between Boston and Casey, and this isn't a hate on Jeremy, but like, Worm, I think we talked about this on previous live streams. Like, I worry that Jeremy Bernard has like a shelf life. Like if Michael Pittman Jr. comes back, if Roman Wilson comes back, like those two players could muddy the situation even outside of the Aaron Rodgers of it all. Yeah.

40:12 And by the way, I just want to make it clear that I'm not any sort of Casey Concepcion hater and Debro can attest when Debro was just starting to get into his prospect film watching in the offseason.

40:22 I texted him.

40:23 I'm like, have you watched Casey Concepcion yet? I knew Debro was going to love him. Like I knew that was Debro.

40:29 You know my type, Fitzy. You know my type. You know, you know, the kind of players I love, baby.

40:35 Falcons at Buccaneers, last game on the early slate here. Fitz, earlier you said that you think the Bucs are actually the best team in this division. I think it might be the Falcons now that Penix is healthy again. I think the Cooper Rush days dragging down this team. But it's an interesting debate for sure, I think. I don't really have a key angle on this matchup, so I really just kind of want to open the floor to you guys. Just give me one player from this game who is too high in the Week 8 consensus rankings and then one player who is too low in the Week 8 consensus rankings. I'll start with you, Fitz.

41:04 Real quick, the reason I'm bullish on the Buccaneers, I think they have far and away the best defense in the division. I don't think anyone's even close. And I would say I probably agree that the Atlanta offense is a little better.

41:15 But as far as.

41:16 Defense, I think the Bucs have an awesome defense. And it's funny because they were 1-5 before they crushed the Panthers last week and could very easily win the division. So it goes in the NFC South. I'm not sure there's anyone in this matchup who's ranked way too high. I think the only guys I could find in this matchup I'm below consensus on are just non-fantasy starter guys like Tez Johnson and Kate Otten. I do think Baker Mayfield is too low, and maybe it's because Mayfield only had to throw 11 passes in that destruction of the Panthers last week. He had 64 passing yards. Buccaneers were just running the ball down the Panthers' throats all game.

41:55 Now he's facing the pass funnel Atlanta defense. Teams have thrown on the Falcons 65.2% of the time. That's the second highest opponent passer rate in the league behind only the Lions. And the Falcons have given up 1,900 passing yards, the most in the league. I have Baker QB 14, five spots above consensus, and I would absolutely start him over Jacoby Brissett this week.

42:18 Okay, yeah, wide gap there. Brissett's QB 10, consensus. Baker, obviously QB 19, as you just alluded to. Deaver, what do you think here?

42:27 I was actually going to come into this. I'm worried about Baker because I think that the Buccaneers don't want to feed him pass volume because they're worried about his thumb. Now I know that last week's game, it kind of lends itself to a lot of that. So if Atlanta pushes back, they're going to be forced to it. I mean, but you could tell by the bet, the Bucs offensive plan, not only like with the 11 passing attempts, but looking at how those 11 passing attempts, like those plays were drawn up. He had an eight out of 4.67, third lowest on the week. He had an average time to throw of 2.49, also seventh lowest on the week. So, Are the Bucs going to be able to, like to Fitzy's point, teams have been throwing a lot more against

43:06 the Atlanta Falcons, but over the last five weeks, they've also given up the seventh highest rushing success rate and second highest yards before contact per attempt. So if the Bucs want to try to continue to limit Baker Mayfield's passing volume because they're worried about the thumb and if they can pose their will with their defense and their run game, like get out to a lead early and put the Falcons in trail mode, it's possible. Like if Penix has a turnover, they get up 14 to nothing really fast. Are they able to limit Baker's dropbacks in this game? I think it's possible. But again, I see the wide range of outcomes with Baker possibly this week.

43:43 The one player, I didn't see anybody that was like too, too high in this matchup. I kind of agree with a lot of them, or at least excuse me, too low. But like, I dude, I don't want Chris Godwin at wide receiver 43. What are we doing? He is dust. He's washed. He hasn't done anything all freaking year. I want to bury him in rankings. He's wide receiver 64 in fantasy points per game. He has a 16.6% target share, 1.18 yards per route run. Atlanta over the last five games, six fewest yards per target, second fewest fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. Chris Godwin is droppable. No, I'm not ranking him as a wide receiver four.

44:25 Emeka Ibuka, just a note that just got tweeted three minutes ago. Emeka Ibuka has cleared concussion protocol but will miss Sunday due to his foot injury.

44:32 I think the foot was the problem. I was worried about that. Again, that's going to hurt Baker because Atlanta has– they play single high at like a top 10 clip. Outside of Emeka, Tampa Bay doesn't have a go-to guy outside of him versus single high. So that's the other concern here.

44:53 Let's get into the late afternoon slate here. Chargers at Rams. Will the Chargers offense look any different coming out of the bye? How willing are you guys to give them a chance in your starting lineups after the week off? I have talked with both of you sort of on the periphery about Chargers players in the last day. And based on your answers in those conversations, I'm guessing neither of you is going to give the Chargers offense all that much of a chance here. I'll start with you, Debra.

45:18 I can see you shaking your head already.

45:20 Hell no. To the no. I'm not starting any chargers. I don't care. I don't care your format. It does not matter to me. I'm not starting any of them. I need a proven game. I need a proven game from everybody in that offense. Marian Hampton, Justin Herbert in Superflex formats, Ladd McConkie. There are no other startable assets you should even consider. But I need a proven game.

45:42 I'm not willing to put any investment in the Chargers offense. Mike McDaniel's still calling plays there. Good Lord, what are we doing? Like, are we just riding the Titanic to its conclusion, Jim Harbaugh? That kind of feels like it. Or are you just more worried about Adam Gase taking over play calling? Because good Lord, if McDaniel's bad, Gase is worse. No, I want no Chargers in any lineup of any form of fantasy, period.

46:05 Debra, before I toss it to Fitz, is this line big enough? It's under a touchdown.

46:08 It's minus six and a half. It's too small. I've said that in the entire freaking week. If the Rams didn't play down to competition consistently over the season, this line would be like the Cincinnati Bengals. They'd be favored by 10. That's the only thing that's pushing, and I think the Rams roll on this one.

46:23 Fitz, what do you make of this?

46:25 It's so small, I haven't been able to bring myself to bet it because what's going on?

46:30 They're like, oh, Vegas is trapping me.

46:32 Something is off here. Yeah, something does seem off.

46:35 Yeah.

46:37 Like I'm willing to think it could look slightly better because Ladd McConkie is probably going to play and it looks like right tackle Joe Alts is going to play and Trey Harris might play. And I actually do think Ladd McConkie startable this week. I kind of expect him to be fairly busy. I don't want to start anyone else in the offense, though, even with all back the offensive line still really bad, especially in the middle. of that offensive line, they're not going to be able to run the ball effectively on the Rams and the Chargers split the backfield three ways anyway. So yeah, I'm not real optimistic about anyone, but I would.

47:13 Play Ladd if you've got him.

47:14 Where's he ranked for you?

47:16 I think I've got him like as a high end wide receiver three. Let me check on that real quick. I've got him at a wide receiver 20, uh, 24. He's 29 in ECR.

47:25 So you are at 33.

47:25 Yeah. The only reason I haven't pushed him lower is just because of bye weeks, and I don't have better options to put above him. That's the only reason he's even at that spot for me.

47:42 Debra, I know the answer for Fitz, but for you, Ladd, McConkie, or Denzel, Boston, who do you prefer?

47:46 Boston. I have no faith in the Chargers offense. They have to show it to me at this point.

47:52 I've got Ladd one spot higher. It's Justin Herbert versus Deshaun Watson feeding those guys.

48:00 And arguably, can we say Deshaun Watson has been better at that this year?

48:05 To this point, yes.

48:06 I mean, to this point, yeah. Chargers have had a dead offense the entire season.

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48:37 All right, guys. Chiefs at Broncos. Fun one in the late afternoon slate. We all remember what Kenneth Walker looked like in week one against this run defense. What are you guys expecting for an encore, Fitz?

48:48 I expect a bounce back.

48:50 The Broncos are just much easier to run on than they are to throw on, and their run defense ranks 29th in EPA.

48:58 Per rush, so.

48:59 I think Walker will get back on track after the bad game in Seattle.

49:04 Do you think it will look similar to what it looked like in week one?

49:07 No, I mean, he went bonkers in that game. It can't possibly be that good.

49:13 It's crazy, really, Debro, looking at his game log here. RB2, RB2, RB4, RB2, RB1, and then RB39. 39 against Seattle is obviously the outlier, but that level of like, even guys who are having incredible elite, awesome seasons are not top two in four of their first five games of the season. That is an unbelievable level of upside and consistency from Walker prior to last week.

49:38 Yeah, it's kind of like Kenneth Walker is good at football. It's kind of like a team that could have been using him as a bell cow in previous years. Kind of weird. I'm not expecting an encore performance of like just a ridiculous game last time. But I mean, do I think he's going to shred the Broncos run defense? Yeah, I sure do. Last five games, six highest explosive run rate, second most yards up to contact per attempt, the highest missed tackle rate in the entire NFL. Hello, Kenneth Walker.

50:09 The four games before the bye week for Walker, three of them, he had at least 22 attempts on the ground. The two games since he's been under 20, both of those games, it's still been 19 and 14. So it's not, it's a huge drop off. Are you guys like sort of paying attention to maybe what the usage might look like trying to save him for January? And if it dials down a little bit relative to that first month?

50:28 No, because the context behind that is not because the Kansas city chiefs were luxant to use him. It's the fact that they have been unable to sustain drives. That's the only reason the volume has been screwed. Yeah.

50:38 Okay.

50:40 Uh, let's go to Patriots at Dolphins. Given what we've seen from AJ Brown in his, well, you know, it's funny. I actually put this together. I'm not sure AJ Brown's going to play. I was going to ask you guys how you're ranking him, uh, against.

50:50 Can we talk about him rest of season though?

50:52 I'm just not really.

50:52 Yeah.

50:53 Let's switch this to rest of season. Cause I was going to say like, what do you, what do you make of what we've seen from him so far? But, um, in the last, he practiced on Wednesday and then didn't practice Thursday. I don't think he practiced stay on Friday. We haven't seen an official report yet. So I'm kind of now assuming he's not going to play. So that's a good call deeper. What do you make of him for rest of season? As far as a ranking, I'm out.

51:09 I'm out. I'm done. I'm out. I trade him and I'm out. Like, so what we were watching, uh, when I was watching the game versus the bears, I watched him run a comeback route and a curl route. And I was like, as soon as I saw choppy footsteps, slow deceleration, he's pushing off at the top of his route to get separation because his ankle's not a hundred percent.

51:31 I was like, Oh, good Lord. Okay. Well, I need to nerf my projection for AJ Brown for the next few weeks. Cause he's playing through the ankle injury and he's not a hundred percent after we had the knee issue come out and that, and now he's going to be out and now he's dealing with an ankle and a knee and the knee. We've had knee issue concerns with him over the last few years about his needing to get drained, stuff like that. Now I'm worried. Is this also a compensatory issue on a bulky knee? That's been a problem over the last few years for not young wide receiver.

52:02 I'm out.

52:03 Like I, trade him rest of season. I I'm done. I feel like this is kind of one of those, like not sabotage drops, but a sabotage trade moment to where it's like, if I can get 75 cents on the dollar, I'm fine with it.

52:17 Just for the sake of argumenting it, we don't expect him to play, but if he surprises us in plays, where would he be ranked for you?

52:23 Debra?

52:25 I'm going to be below ECR. Cause I think ECR is going to have him as like a wide receiver to considering the matchup with the dolphins. And I, considering I didn't think he was 100% healthy when the ankle was the only issue. Now I know he's nowhere close to 100% healthy. I will be burying him in rankings versus consensus.

52:44 Right now he's wide receiver 16 in UCR.

52:46 Yeah, wide receiver 3 land probably for me.

52:49 Fitz, what do you make of him, both if we are surprised that he plays this week and then also rest of season?

52:55 If he plays this week, I'll have him in the mid to late 20s. And my rest of season rankings, I had him wide receiver 23 before the ID, before there was an inkling that he might not play this week. Um, it is just a high ankle sprain in week one. It's just such a, that can be like a season wrecker, man.

53:16 Cause a high ankle sprain is basically like a knee injury and it takes a long time to get right. And, um, you know, he never got a full game in and now coming back too early, it's causing issues.

53:29 He also still has a bye week upcoming. Like there will be at least another game that he misses too. Like when thinking about rest, we're at the point of the year where that matters in terms of rest of season rankings, if a guy has a bye week left or not. So worth keeping in mind there. Yeah. Let's go to Sunday night football guys, Eagles at commanders, a game we're not that excited about, especially compared to some of these other matchups. I will ask you guys this, which pass catcher steps up for the commanders in the absence of Terry McClure. And obviously they had the bye week last week. So this is the first full game we will see without Terry. Who steps up Debro?

54:03 I think it's going to be Stefan Diggs, but I think that's the easy answer. Over the last five games, Philly's given up the 13th most yards per target, the most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. But I want to go deeper with this. I think the number two will be Chika Conquo. In the last two weeks, he's at a 72.6% route share, 16.9% target share.

54:24 He's been getting it done on a per route basis, 2.11 yards per route run. Almost a 24% first read share. Philly in their last five games giving up the 11th most yards per target to tight ends. So I think a lot of people will look at Antonio Williams as the clear number two in this offense. It kind of seems like it's Chig.

54:42 Fitz, what do you think? I mean, Antonio Williams and Chig, if you're setting aside Stephon Diggs, do feel like the two obvious candidates to look at. Do you have a favorite between the two?

54:49 I don't, I don't really have a, well, I mean, I've got digs ranked higher, but I think all of Stefan digs, Antonio Williams, Chico Conco are playable this week. Rashad white too. He's probably going to get some dump off action. Wouldn't even shock me if trail on Berks had a decent game, although he's probably going to get some Aquinion Mitchell. So, uh, I wouldn't count on it.

55:11 It's just, it's going to be really interesting to see how targets are divided. I got to ask you deeper. Um, How do you see the slot snaps getting split up? Because I think the slot rate for Stefan Diggs is like 63% and Antonio Williams like 49%.

55:26 Dude, I wrestled with that when I was going back and forth with the primer. I'm like, okay, do they bump Diggs to the outside? Do they put Antonio Williams to the outside? I kind of feel like they're going to rotate these guys back and forth based off a matchup. So like this week, that also kind of leads me to being lower on Antonio Williams where it's like, I think that if you want to get Stefan Diggs as your number one in the most favorable matchup in this game, it is bump his slot rate. Antonio, we're going to push you outside more, maybe bump you to like 60% of your routes and make you more of a sacrificial guy on the outside to draw coverage or deal with the outside corners and run the passing game through Chig

56:07 and Stefan Diggs. But that's one of the things when I was writing up the primer, I'm like, because Antonio Williams has been 50, 50. And I'm like, how do they, I think this is going to be a week to week thing, right?

56:18 You want the slot guy against the Eagles, but I don't know who the slot guy, the primary is going to be. I'm sure they're both going to play slot snaps, but it's hard to tell who's going to be the main slot guy.

56:27 Yeah. Yeah. Agreed. It's a good call.

56:29 Where are you guys ranking Jaden Daniels with Terry McLaurin out?

56:34 I've on this week with, with buys and stuff. And I, I didn't think Daniels was going to come back with a brace on his freaking arm and run as much as he's done. For me, I've got him at QB 7 this week.

56:48 That is where he is in consensus.

56:51 I could be talked into anywhere from QB 7 to freaking QB 11 or 12. I think considering how much he's running and everybody on by, I can only bump him so low this week. Fitz?

57:04 I've got him QB eight and the guy I've got higher who was below him in ECR was Jordan love.

57:11 And, uh, yeah, I made the right call on that. So I wish I could have gone back.

57:16 I know. I wish I could have gone back. It's like, I wrestle with that all the way up to kickoff. I was like, Which version of this are we going to get? I feel like I'm going to be mad that I didn't rank Love higher and I have him right behind Jane Daniels.

57:29 Everyone looked at Carolina and worried statistically about how they had done against. But it's like you realize their best two cornerbacks are.

57:37 Not playing tonight, right?

57:38 And more guys got hurt during that game too.

57:42 What are you guys looking at for your favorite prop bets for Sunday Night Football this week? We want to take a look at the prop bet cheat sheet here. Where are you guys going for your three and four star bets?

57:52 Jeremy McNichols under 24 and a half rushing yards. I'm not quite sure why that line is so high.

57:59 Debra.

58:01 Tanner McKee. Dude, I I wasn't expecting to be on this random freaking prop, but here we are, baby. Tanner McKee under two point five rushing yards is a three star bet on the prop and cheat sheet. And I love it. I love it. I was actually surprised this wasn't like a five-star bet. We have a projection of zero goose egg rushing yards for this fan. But in four games started, his rushing output, one yard, three yard, zero yards, one yard. So I'm like, yeah, let's get the.

58:32 Under, baby.

58:33 The statue of David is more mobile than Tanner McKee.

58:36 Yes. I was going through the prop bet cheat sheet and worm, I swear. On my soul. I almost messaged you in Slack and was like, dude, I can't find a bet for this game. And then the Tanner McKee line came up and I was like, well, huh, color me surprised. Okay, I love this.

58:55 Those were our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football, courtesy of the Betting Pros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Find the best NFL player prop bets with the Betting Pros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props monday night football guys we got a good one bet you know bad sunday night game great monday night game bears at seahawks seahawks completely dominated the chiefs running game in week seven and now they face another high level rushing attack under ben johnson what are your expectations for the bears run game

59:28 in seattle d.

59:29 Bro they're going to run into similar brick walls. Woof. Like I, this kind of feels like the Deandre Swift game of, uh, was the versus the Falcons where he didn't get anything done, but he got the touchdowns. Uh, so yeah, I, I think Swift's going to get the volume, but Seattle over the last five games, fourth lowest explosive run rate, second lowest Russian success rate, fourth fewest yards per, uh, after contact per attempt. This feels very much like, like the Patty Mahomes kind of like attack mode here where it's like, all right, Ben, We're going to not let you run the ball, and we're going to make Caleb beat us. I kind of wonder, can Caleb beat them, though, with Luther Burden and Colson Loveland, though? We'll see.

1:00:09 Fitz, what do you think about the run game here?

1:00:14 I don't think it's going to be efficient, but I am still starting DeAndre Swift. I've got him RB16, which is right in line with ECR.

1:00:23 Tough matchup.

1:00:24 Seattle's giving up 71 rushing yards a game and 3.4 yards per carry to running backs. And Really, the Bears' running game has not been that spectacular this season. Garrett Bradbury, major downgrade at center from Drew Dallman, who unexpectedly retired in the offseason. Left tackle is kind of a concern.

1:00:44 Swift is averaging 4.1 yards per carry, which is kind of right in line with league average. Now, Kyle Menongai is up at 5.4 yards per carry, but still out with turf toe. And the Bears' running game only ranks 15th in DVOA, middle of the pack. But you still have to start Swift though. 19.7 touches a game in the three games. Menon guy has missed four touchdowns in those three games, four catches in each of those three games.

1:01:09 So you're, you're still playing Swift, even, even though it's a tough matchup.

1:01:14 To that point, Fitzy, we've seen Seattle on their two highest structure. The more that I've thought about this game, do you think we see a bump for Swift in the passing game versus this? Because Seattle over the last few years, they will give up production to running backs with the two highest shell. So like, can Chicago run more through the air in this game? That's kind of like where my mind has been going with this attack plan. Yeah.

1:01:34 I mean, four catches a game over three weeks could be up at six or seven this week.

1:01:39 Yeah.

1:01:40 It's time for fresh from the oven takes brought to you by DiGiorno. Just like a pizza fresh out of the oven. These takes are hot, fresh and ready for Monday night.

1:01:48 D bro.

1:01:49 What is your bold prediction for Monday night football?

1:01:52 Colston Loveland has arrived. He is the king that was promised. He has been awesome. And versus Seattle, he posts another 18 or 19 PPR points. And just for everybody out there, over the last two games, he has put up 18.5, 19.9 PPR points. Over the last two games, Colston Loveland, 26.1% target share, 2.39 yards per route run, 31.7% first read share. Also, Colston Loveland, hope and hype. Trey McBride, against this defense, did post 18.1 fantasy points in week two.

1:02:26 Loveland is tight end five this week. Is that, I'm assuming, lower than you have him?

1:02:32 Yeah, I've got him above that. I've got Colston Loveland at tight end four.

1:02:38 Okay, so by one spot there. Fitz, what are your expectations for Loveland, quickly?

1:02:42 Tight end five.

1:02:44 Tight end five for you?

1:02:44 Yeah. Okay.

1:02:45 What's your bold prediction for the week?

1:02:47 Two touchdowns for Jackson Smith and Jake Bowe.

1:02:50 Is that even that bold?

1:02:51 I know. I know. I should have gone three.

1:02:53 I saw that. You took the words out of my mouth. I saw you put that in Slack, and I was like, I'm going to possibly tell Fitzy on the show that's not bold enough. Fitzy, bump up those rookie numbers. Let's go to three.

1:03:04 Make it three. Let's go.

1:03:06 All right.

1:03:07 We're talking Fitzy to making this a three touchdown bold prediction. Jason getting the hat trick. I'll say for my bold prediction, the total in this game is 46 and a half. I think the total actually beats that number by a full touchdown. I think this game ends up in the 50s in terms of the combined total here. You know, people look at Seattle. They have an unbelievable defense, probably the best in football. They look at the Bears. Oh, trading for Jeffrey Simmons. I think this game surprises us with the scoring on Monday night. I think Ben Johnson is excited to go up against the type of defensive mind that Mike McDonald is and that we get not just an over but an easy over in this one. Deaver,

1:03:39 what do you think about that prediction?

1:03:40 I like that. And also I got to give some love to Caleb Williams. Like he's playing really good football this year. He has been what he has done as a passer and turning around his accuracy issues. That was a huge problem. Even the first year in Ben Johnson's offense, kudos to Caleb man. Like it has been fantastic. And I have not always been the biggest Caleb stand because of those issues on a per drop back basis. He has been fantastic this season.

1:04:08 Fitz, what do you think about that over call?

1:04:10 Yeah, I like it. I think we'll see points in this game.

1:04:15 Yeah.

1:04:16 Those were your fresh from the oven takes brought to you by DiGiorno. Make Monday night pizza night with fresh from your oven taste. It's not delivery. It's DiGiorno. We'll wrap things up there. Thanks, everybody, for checking out our key questions here for week eight. Best of luck setting those lineups. Enjoy Halloween. Halloween with. It's a Saturday Halloween. Andy, we get an extra hour of sleep with daylight saving time.

1:04:35 And there's no international game. That's a dangerous convo. For D-Bro and Fitz, I'm Ryan Wormley. Enjoy the holiday weekend. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.