NFL Week 8 Predictions & Picks: Huge NFL Trades, Fantasy Football Breakouts & Bold Calls! (Ep. 2305)

0:00 What's up, friends, and welcome in to The Tailgate. I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson, and we've got some predictions. We're talking about Week 8, going through the latest news, trades blazing. We're going to be talking about some of the big games, and we're going to be making a couple big calls. By the way, little Nostradamus here, I had, and I'm proud of this, Erickson, and Fitzy, you weren't here for it, but I'm proud of this. We were reliving... Maybe my worst take I've had in years was right around preseason-ish here on the tailgate where, unfortunately, I had something in my craw about the Colts. But we don't need to focus on me thinking the Colts were going to make the playoffs or

0:43 anything like that. But I was able to subdue that this week with absolutely two bangers on my predictions where we said things to watch and make calls. I had the Scataboo bounce back and the 49ers let down. So Eric's saying, Can we please focus on that and not focus on me thinking the Colts would be a good team, win the division, and get to the playoffs?

1:03 No, no. We have to talk about how you were the Daniel Jones stan. He was going to have a comeback player of the year type of 2026 season. No, we're not going to give you your flowers. No, you deserve your flowers, K. Scataboo, obviously, big bounce back for him. And the 49ers, turnover city, man. It seemed like it was going to happen eventually. At some point, they were going to have a game where They turned the ball over a ton. Atlanta obviously took advantage of that. But no, dude, shout out to you, man. I was also not on the show last week. I was too busy making wrong predictions about A.J. Brown on the Daily Juice. So that's where I was. That's right.

1:40 Fitzy got to experience my greatness. Who would have thought that not having Mike Evans was going to be. An issue or anything like that. Fitzy, are you awake? Are you here coming off a celebration of the Milwaukee Brewers and their first World Series win? One of now there's only four MLB teams that have never won a World Series.

2:01 I got to say, you deserve a little bit of extra credit for not looking rough, my friend.

2:06 Yeah, I managed to keep it somewhat buttoned down last night. It would have been different if it had gone to game six and it had happened on a Friday night. I probably wouldn't be as sprightly the next morning. But yeah, I had a celebratory beer or two last night, and it was a good night. Shifting now to football, and I will say that after winning the World Series— I probably won't be as crushed if the Packers lay another Thursday night egg against the Panthers tonight. So, yeah. But as far as bad calls, there is a video, either fantasy pros or betting pros, I can't recall, somewhere from August where I think I picked the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl out of the NFC. So I hope no one unearths that one.

2:53 Yeah, I was going to say we should pull the, we were going to pull the cult video. And all I could be thinking about is like, you know, my, because they use the Indiana Jones thing with Daniel Jones. Like my take was like, it's going to be Indiana Jones and, you know, and the Temple of Doom. But it's like, all we got was Indiana Jones and like the Crystal Skull remake with Shia LaBeouf. And that's the version he is right now. And anyone that's seen that movie would get the reference. But yeah, horrible. But the cults are in the news and we're going to be talking about, we actually were going to lead the show.

3:23 with the Colts because the Colts have made multiple trades this week. There are players requesting trades, and then there's a rumor we're going to talk about of a player that could not play. But right before the show, or a little bit before the show, we had a blockbuster trade, and I'm not lightly saying that. As the Chicago Bears made a huge move, moving two first-round picks and a 2028 fifth-round pick, for Jeffrey Simmons from the Titans shoring up their defensive line. I mean, and you look at like what the 49ers paid on the Colts in DeForest Buckner, which we'll talk about. Two first round picks, a 2027 first round, a 2028 first round. And then as I mentioned, that fifth round pick for Jeffrey Simmons to go to

4:10 the Bears. Wildly big move. Bears making a big, big push here to shore up that defensive line. And the cost, I guess we've seen these costs with star cornerbacks and stuff, but big run stuff like this. Bitsy, why don't you kick us off here? This was one of those trades that wasn't on any wires for any of us to be taking a look. Everyone's shipping Khalil Mack and they were shipping Buckner, but Jeffrey Sims goes to the Bears.

4:34 I was taken aback when a friend of mine who is a Chicago Bears fan texted me this while I was walking the dogs this morning and like, what? That really happened?

4:41 Wow.

4:42 Yeah, and he thought it was a bit of an overpay. And I think it's a bit of an overpay. I mean, this is basically the same price that the Green Bay Packers paid for Micah Parsons last year. And Parsons is, what, two to three years younger or was at the time.

4:59 It might not be once he actually starts playing a game.

5:02 Right, right. Yeah. Whether it's worked out, you know, that remains to be seen. But it is a big move for the Bears now. They needed this, though, if they are going to make some noise this year, because Dennis Allen, the Bears defensive coordinator, has done an admirable job of cobbling together what he can with below average personnel. And he has held that defense together and made it at least respectable, even though it seemed that the Bears had like personnel issues at every level of their defense. This is going to help immensely. They were 26th in DVOA against the run, I think, or are heading into this week.

5:47 It's a good move for them. It's a bold move. I do think it's an overpay, but I think you can almost justify the overpay.

5:56 Erickson, A, are you surprised at how many trades we've already seen? And B, this is the big shocker of those trades. Is it a shocking trade enough to put a Bears team that has been good in into another category to be dangerous.

6:11 Not surprised by the trades because I feel like that's kind of the new age NFL where teams are open up to let's make more trades. Let's make more deals. Let's move guys. Let's move these contracts. So teams that know that they're contending are, hey, we need to tie up loose ends with where we have our weaknesses. We need to bolster the roster where we need help the most.

6:32 And I think that we all talked about in some of the earlier tailgate shows that DeForest Buckner or Grover Stewart were in line to be a potential Bears target because we know they need a defensive line help. So obviously, I agree with Fitz where this does feel like an overpayment. Multiple first round picks for a guy who's 29 years old that's playing on the defensive line. That's not a pure pass rusher. That's not to say he can't make a huge impact. And I think that Simmons is also one of these players where him being in the middle of the defense makes everyone else's lives much easier. So you're kind of getting like boosted production from the other pieces around him in this defense. We've obviously seen like

7:07 the impact like a Dexter Lawrence has had on the Bengals defense, which has played a lot better, I think, overall than last year, because it's not just him and all the things that he does, but he's making life a lot easier for those other players on the defensive line. So I do think that's good for the Bears in terms of where they find themselves. They have a rookie quarterback on a rookie contract. So, okay, we can afford to take on the salary of one of the highest paid defensive linemen. I don't know what his exact contract is, but I think Simmons signed a new deal with the Titans this past offseason. So obviously he's not coming cheap.

7:38 So I think, yeah, it helps the Bears from what exactly they need. So I'm not super surprised by the deal here. I guess I'm interested that they didn't try to go cheaper direction. I know Grover Stewart, one of these other Colts, defensive linemen has also kind of been rumored. He's obviously older at 33 years old, but I think, yeah, this is exactly what the Bears need. It's actually interesting because you look at them in the matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Jeffrey Simmons and Quentin Nelson are going to go head to head after playing like two weeks ago.

8:05 And now they're going to be playing in different uniforms.

8:08 I thought it was interesting, too. Like all the trades, by the way, have been like on the line. You know, you're seeing that have happened so far in the NFL. You saw we're talking about Nelson and then you saw two defensive line, the defensive linemen get moved.

8:20 Well, I think two teams are learning from the mistake that the Colts made. when you trade two first round picks for a perimeter player, like a sauce garter, his impact is so much harder to get from a down to down distance because he's not right where the ball is. So I think teams are realizing that, no, if you're going to pay two first round picks for a defensive player, he has to be a player that can make an impact on every single play. And when you play cornerback, that's not always the case because you can just be so far away from the ball. Whereas Jeffrey Simmons, Micah Parsons, these guys make impact every single time the ball snapped, whether it's a run play, whether it's a pass play.

8:55 So I do agree with that where the Bears are investing in what they need the most. So yeah, it feels like an overpay. But if that makes the Bears a legitimate Super Bowl contender, does anybody care? Probably not. No.

9:06 And the contract, by the way, he's actually one of the highest paid defensive tackles in NFL history. It's over $ 100 million deal. He got 100,000 in injuries, or I guess it was 60. I'm sorry. It was 60 million fully guaranteed. And there's like 100,000 with like injury guarantees. He signed through 2023 with a void in 2000, 2030 and with a void in 2031. So that's kind of the breakdown of that move. And I mean, it's it's like the classic as you were kind of breaking down, like why they should do that. I think like baseball terms sometimes, too, where it's like, what do you do?

9:41 You build a lot of like young hitters. And then you go spend on pitching. But in any type of rebuild of any sports organization, have a bunch of like good young controllable studs and then go and spend up on filling those holes at certain spots. This would be a defensive line spot. I honestly think the Bears shouldn't be done. but I'm just not sure how much equity they've got left in trading, you know, because they needed to shore up that defense. But it was a huge move.

10:06 A blockbuster trade. You got to wonder if there are maybe more under the table for some of these teams because teams seem to be so much more willing to move. And that takes to the Colts. You know, we've talked about the Colts a lot so far. And like I said, they would have been the top of the news had we not had this breaking trade. But that fire sale has looked really dramatic. And I'll be honest with you, I questioned that this would actually happen. Because I think we always have this theory. We're like, oh, they're not winning, so they're going to trade off all their pieces. And it would be like, why? Why would they trade off all these pieces if they want to compete soon? Well, I think they've obviously come to terms that they're not

10:41 going to necessarily compete soon. They traded Quentin Nelson to Seattle, which they were trying to get something for him, I believe, a pending free agent. I did say this, Pat. I don't know if you remember on the episode last week, but I did say the 49ers would probably call it on Forrest Buckner. And that happened. That was cool. And so, I mean, those are the two trades that have happened.

11:00 But then the two pieces that are floating out here, A, Josh Downs has apparently requested a trade, which I think has a lot of impact. And we didn't get to talk about this on the rank episode, but there was a report from Mike Florio from PFF. like an hour after we did the fantasy pros rank episode that Jonathan Taylor, and it was like multiple parts. If he is going to be traded, if he's not traded this weekend, that they would plan on sitting him. So he, they kind of built the caveat of like, if they plan to trade him, if that's real, they're trying to trade him right now. And if he doesn't go this weekend, they would potentially not play him this weekend. So they could probably extend the trade market in after. So Pat, I'd

11:42 ask you, Do you think Josh Downs does get actually is traded? And do you think Jonathan Taylor at this state is going to be traded based off of what the team is doing and some of the reports out there?

11:56 I think there's a better than 50, 50 chance on both getting traded. I don't think it's automatic. Um, but yeah, it's just, it's fire sale time for the Colts and, um, boy, is their future bleak? You know, the, the, Daniel Jones, Chris Ballard, just, sorry, he tanked this organization before he left. The Sauce Gardner trade and the Daniel Jones contract, which is going to be a millstone around the neck of the Colts franchise for years to come. I feel terrible for Colts fans because they had to feel, think about where they were a year ago today. I know where I was. Yeah, I mean, they looked like a surprise Super Bowl contender and now they are just, selling off parts and, um, you know, Buckner, it was kind of interesting.

12:45 They did sell off, uh, pitted the NFC West contenders against each other in the fire sale. Um, I like the, the price that the, and granted he's a one-year rental because both Buckner and Nelson have, I believe expiring contracts and are going to be UFAs after this year. But, um, what was it? A fourth rounder for Buckner, uh, And Seattle gave up a third this year, or a third in 2027, a fifth in 2028 for Nelson. But it kind of gave both teams what they needed. I get it.

13:18 It's just you're not going to get much of a return on guys whose contracts are expiring. So they're going to keep selling. Colts are going to be lousy for a few years at least until they just start doing... It's a clear cut. A... You know, when you what is it when you burn a prairie wetland so the new stuff can grow over it? It's kind of what the dolphins are doing with all their salary cap problems.

13:44 And now the colts are going to have to do.

13:46 It, too. What's a prairie wetland?

13:48 We have one right across the street from us. It's just, you know, just a lot of like there's a marsh, a creek that goes through it. Just a lot of, you know, tall sort of grass and brush that graze. And sometimes our village has to come in. does a once a year burn, burns all this stuff.

14:09 Where do you live? Do you live in an M night?

14:10 Burn it at the stake at the village. Yeah.

14:15 I put the marsh in a bear's hat and just burn it all. Like what's happening. Remember I'm from Arizona. We have dirt. We have sand. That's all that I know.

14:23 A summer night. I can walk outside and I, I hear frogs croaking from the Creek in the Prairie wetlands.

14:28 Uh, it's pretty cool. I mean, it sounds beautiful. It sounds, it sounds awesome. Um, It's funny. We had talked about the Josh Downs thing and you were talking about the NFC West. I think Josh Downs like to the Rams would make all the sense in the world. They should just keep doing it. The thing that we, I don't know if we did a lot of in that episode, but maybe let's just put a focus on because, because my place now is I think Josh Downs is 75% to be traded. Schefter even reported on Pat McAfee show that like he was going to go. I really have not thought Jonathan Taylor was going to go. Now it does seem a lot more likely that, Erickson, is there, again, I don't remember if we like slightly talked about, I

15:05 feel like we really focused on Josh Downs on that episode. Is there a destination that you think is just a shoe? And I think everyone has shipped Jonathan Taylor to the Vikings. That's kind of been the main one, you know, the running back issues, offense, I think maybe hiding, hiding Kyler Murray and some of his inefficiencies with offensive weapons makes sense.

15:23 The one I've sat on, in that exact tone, is actually the Giants. Because I think it would benefit the Giants and John Harbaugh, like a classic way for John Harbaugh, John Harbaugh, I can't say it, is that you have a young quarterback that I don't know if you have a big level of trust in, but you just build around immaculate pieces around him. Get a great wide receiver core.

15:47 You've got your big playmaking tight end. Then get an undeniable running back to hide some of the inefficiencies of a guy like McCarthy. I think that makes all the sense in the world. So I'm actually shipping him to the Giants that they would make an aggressive play. What are your thoughts, Erickson, on him being moved and a destination that you want to put him to?

16:07 Yeah, Giants for me would definitely be the spot. We saw Harbaugh mentioned a couple of weeks ago when he split the backfield up and they benched Skadaboo because he wanted someone to step up in the offense and be the bell cow. And he said, it must be so nice to have guys like Derek Henry or Saquon Barkley if only one of these guys was conveniently available for us to acquire in trade. And yeah, you do. Jonathan Taylor, he's clearly available and on the trade block. So although I think that the interesting thing with the Colts is they're not going to trade him for cheap. So it really depends on how aggressive teams are going to be to trade for a running back that I think in terms of career touches is trailing only like McCaffrey and

16:48 Derrick Henry. in terms of the workload he has on his body. He just signed a new contract with the Colts this offseason, so you're going to be picking up that contract. That's not to say he can't be productive. He's still productive this year, even playing on a bottom offense. I do think it's interesting, though, when you talk about the rumor about him sitting How does the locker room react to that? Because clearly they know if Jonathan Taylor is injured or not, and clearly he's not injured. So are they like, oh yeah, he's just not going to play because he's going to get traded. So to me, isn't that like clearly a tanking move where you're not playing your best player on offense and the whole locker

17:21 room is seeing this? If you're looking around, you're like, so what are we doing here?

17:25 The only thing is, is like, I think how it's supposed to, I kind of think it's a cop-out thing. I think that might be one person pushing that piece of information out because what can happen is they can say this and then nothing happens this weekend. And then everyone's like, Oh, he's not getting traded. And then he gets traded and it's like, Oh, well things change. So I think it's kind of a cop out type of thing.

17:47 But I think what they're trying to state is that it's not a tanking issue. It's a, we are going to trade him issue. And the trade deadline is not this weekend. So if they can't get him moved this weekend, then, The idea is they don't want to risk any type of injury. They sit him because they will trade him the following week. But then that also kills– theoretically kills leverage.

18:06 So that's why I think this report that came out is really odd and weird because I think it doesn't help any party. It actually puts a lot more– eyes on the whole thing and then if they sit john i mean i guess we would have assumed if they sat jonathan taylor this was the case anyways but now there's a pre-report that's floating out there it's very.

18:25 I think they have to do it in a way because it seems like most teams have somewhat like of a gentleman's agreement in terms of how they're going to tank where You can't make Jonathan Taylor like an outright, you can't like scratch him, but you can do what you did last week where, well, we just gave Seth McGowan more touches. Like, okay. Like at least you can kind of accept that in the locker room can accept this. Like, okay.

18:45 Like they're just, we all know what's going on here and they're just kind of weaning him off of his workload just because, hey, he might get traded. So we don't want to overload him with touches. And I don't know if you guys saw this, but I thought it was so funny. You know what hype video the Colts posted like two days ago, Seth McGowan.

19:01 Oh yeah. There you go.

19:04 I mean, like when the social media account is in on, let's hype up our sixth round rookie running back, 25 years old. Again, I was a big fan of Seth McGowan coming out again. He had, he bounced around. He had a lot of off the field issues during his college days, but I thought he was actually a pretty good running back. He out touched him. He out produced Mike Washington and one of the teams that they played together at the college level. So I think McGowan can, can ball a little bit, but yeah, the fact that the, social media team is puffing up this this running back it's like yeah like clearly jt what's the deal that gets it done obviously i don't think it looks like even realistic.

19:41 I i think it's it might be remember his deal it was a two year, $ 44 million extension. So there's 39 million on the guarantee. It's 22 million per. So I don't want to call that like affordable, but it might, I think it's relatively affordable for a team to know that you just have a two year commitment on a running back. I think it's ideal. I think that's, I think it's perfect for Harbaugh. I think it's perfect for the giant. So I think a team has to give up at minimum a second to, I don't think it can start without a second, but it probably is a first.

20:13 I think NFL trade gauging is, like, impossible. Like, if you would have said Jeffrey Simmons is getting traded, I wouldn't have been like, oh, well, that's going to be two first-round picks. You know what I mean? So, like, maybe I just have a worse gauge at it. Fitzy, do you?

20:24 They're not getting a first form. Not with the financial commitment it takes to a running back, which— But it's only two years. But it's— proven to be kind of bad business to give running backs a lot of money. And I think that's going to be considered in the trade compensation. I think it's going to be a second is the best they could hope for.

20:42 That makes sense.

20:44 Yeah. I just, as we think more about this, the Giants seem so perfect for Jonathan, especially because they're on a bike. What about, just get them on.

20:51 Yeah.

20:51 What about the Bengals as a dark horse?

20:54 Oh, you're going to break.

20:55 Why are we giving up on Chase Brown?

20:58 I know, but like they, they seem to be giving up on Chase Brown. And I like, They think Samaj P. Ryan is better out of shotgun, and Joe Burrow seems to prefer operating out of shotgun. I agree. I think Chase Brown is good, but bring in Jonathan Taylor. You have Chase Brown be the passing down back.

21:16 How much money would be invested in your quarterback, your wide receiver one, your wide receiver two? Quite a bit.

21:21 Quite a bit.

21:22 And you're running back. 80% of the money is in these four players for the Bengals.

21:27 And it's the anti-Bengal move of all time, but they did just give up their first-round draft pick for Dexter Lawrence.

21:34 I mean, it's going to be a fun trade deadline. Continue to watch it. We'll have more breakdowns, and we'll probably be breaking down more of this next week. Last little bit, just wanted to point out for anybody, this is a big one just for the AFC and the North. Lamar Jackson, full participant in practice, so that is very good for the other pieces around. Ravens can get back to it. Good for safe flowers. Good for everybody. Good for everybody all around. All right, those are some trending news.

21:56 We could probably talk trades and theory for a whole bunch more, but we're going to talk about some games. Before we do, though, basketball season's here, and a new way you can trade on it is with Polymarket. Polymarket's not just a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys.

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22:37 There's actually some big ones. And speaking of that transition moves from Lamar Jackson right into the first game, one of the early games here. And it's going to mess with my world. You guys don't care, but it's official time changes Sunday morning. So my game time, everything changes. My fantasy pros live stream I do is an hour later.

22:54 My games change. My time changes. It's going to be chaos for me. Not really. I get to sleep a little bit more. I know, tear, tear, tear. You can change back your clock. Have fun with it. But the Buffalo Bills are going to be playing Baltimore in Baltimore. I'm sorry, opposite. The Baltimore Ravens are in Buffalo. Apologies.

23:12 Four and three Ravens, three and one on the road this season. Buffalo five and one. Their one loss has come at home. Lamar Jackson comes back. That's kind of a big deal. Erickson, why don't you kick us off here? Where do you think this heads? This becomes more of a competitive game. Snoop was fine, but more of a competitive game with Lamar Jackson back, but two of the game's best quarterbacks.

23:33 I like the Bills here, and I've kind of grown to like them a little bit more as the week has kind of progressed, even though I feel like you usually want the underdog elite quarterback in these matchups, whether it's Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, but the bills coming off of a bi-week teams that have had the rest advantages here have absolutely dominated teams that are not fully rested. And you look at Lamar Jackson coming off of his three week absence. How effective is he going to be? Maybe he's a hundred percent healthy. Is he rusty at all? Like those are the big question marks.

24:07 And when you just look at like the spread, it suggests that this is like full goal Lamar Jackson, as it's a field goal, bills are playing at home. Usually the home team gets three points. So that's kind of why On a neutral field, these teams are probably a coin flip, which when it's Lamar Jackson versus Josh Allen, I would tend to agree with. But looking at underdogs with seven fewer days of rest this season, 0-15, straight up.

24:27 Every single team that has been an underdog when the market closed and has had a seven-day rest disadvantage has lost to the other team every single game this year. So. I think that Buffalo well rested their offense. I think it's going to continue to hum, maybe get DJ more back. And I think that the bye week was probably a big boost for the defense. When you get a new defensive coordinator with Jim Meyer coming in, taking over for Sean McDermott, they were changing their scheme. You're going to go through growing pains, which is what we saw during the first heart of the season with the Buffalo Bills defense.

25:02 I think their defense could play a little bit better here. So I actually like the Bills here a lot, and that's kind of who I would project to win this game, even at home, even with Lamar coming back. Should be a high-scoring game, I hope. Zay Flowers making plays, Jacoby Lane making plays, but I think the Bills win.

25:17 Yeah, two and a half, I think, is where it opened. Still kind of floating around there. It may be sitting at three. But, Fitzy, where are you at on this one? Buffalo, been a madhouse. Looking like they're going to get DJ Moore back in this one as well. So where are you sitting on Buffalo versus Baltimore?

25:33 Fun game. Vegas total of 54 and a half. And Jesse Minter goes from the frying pan to the fire. He got cooked by Joe Burrow in the second half last week against the Bengals. They lose that game and now he's going to go face Josh Allen in Buffalo. So it's going to be a challenge for him. And to me, the interesting angle in this game, Walsh, is what you were just saying about the return of Lamar Jackson and what it means for some of the other pieces in the Ravens offense. Like, is Derrick Henry showing signs of age or was that just the offense not functioning the way it's supposed to when Lamar Jackson is playing?

26:14 Because Derrick Henry has not been very effective lately. And Jacoby Lane has been back from his week one wrist injury for a couple of weeks now. Hasn't really clicked yet in a big way, but I mean, he was the talk of Ravens training camp. Does he become a major contributor once Lamar is back? Flowers still really good with Huntley, but his average depth of target, not what it is when you get Lamar Jackson there and, you know, Flowers and Jackson together were making beautiful music early in the season. So can't wait to see what it all looks like for the Ravens offense with Lamar back and Jesse Minner's defense against Josh Allen. Big challenge. Hopefully for Ravens fans, they do better than they did against Burrow

26:59 in the second half last week. So I can't wait for this game. Why is this a noon game, by the way? That stinks, man. They should be like a.

27:05 Because they had to put Pats and Dolphins on at 425. Very important.

27:09 Yeah, what are the old... Yeah, look at that. They've got to go Pats, Dolphins.

27:13 Which I honestly can't believe that's in one of the late afternoon slots.

27:18 Am I alone in this? Not to sidetrack us. I absolutely... Hate the whole every game in the morning and then two or three games in the afternoon. It is the worst, like just break them up evenly. So we have more variety in the afternoon. Like I personally, I like my, I mean, my 49ers, they're in the afternoon, like every single week, except last week. It was the first time, which by the way, according to they lose. was an early game. But why? Why do we have to have three games? And there's always one that you're just like, I'll never watch that. Like, I mean, unless you're a Patriots fan, you're going to watch the Dolphins and Patriots.

27:53 I just don't understand. I hate it. And I didn't know if I was alone on that. Yeah.

27:57 I'm with you.

27:57 I think you're spot on.

27:58 Hate, hate, hate. There should always be at least four in the afternoon, late afternoon. We know.

28:04 And the thing is, too, the Cowboys are always on. And that's a lot, too, on Fox, where it's like, Cowboys, and it's always Tom Brady doing the broadcast.

28:12 I know. It's awful.

28:14 All right.

28:14 Another good game. Minnesota, Detroit, the 6-0 Minnesota Vikings going up against Detroit. We lost our touchdown from Gibbs previous week. This line has actually moved. Interesting, like the total. It opened at 47 and a half. It moved down and it's sitting around like 45 and a half. So it's actually moved down a couple slots, which I think is interesting. Fitzy, why don't you kick us off here? Can Minnesota leave Detroit a lossless team still?

28:43 They absolutely could win this game. And I can't wait to see what the. What it's going to look like when the Detroit offense takes on the Minnesota defense. That's just like strength against strength. That's going to be fantastic to watch. But I actually want to talk about what it's going to look like on the other side of the ball when Minnesota has hit against the Detroit defense. And I know, like in fantasy, the Detroit pass defense has been come one, come all, start all your wide receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends against Detroit.

29:16 I don't know if it's going to be that way for very long. Because Brian Branch came back for the Lions last week against the Packers. And Jordan Love and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden did not go off against Detroit last week. And there were a few Matthew Golden drops. But now Kirby Joseph is on the way back. So the Lions are going to have both of their... awesome safety duo back with those guys back the Lions defense is going to be a different animal and the Vikings have I don't know if Joseph is going to be back for this week probably not I think he's been cleared to come off IR so he's got the 21 day window but man like Minnesota's had trouble moving the ball as it is, and now the Detroit defense maybe

30:02 has more teeth than it did a few weeks ago. This is a really fascinating game.

30:09 Erickson, keys to the game on this one. Do you think Minnesota is going to be able to continue this run, go 7-0? I think this is the test. This is that power offense versus the power defense. This is actually probably one of my favorites for the week, but What do you think about this one and what's your key to the game?

30:29 The quintessential unstoppable force reaches the immovable object to quote John Madden from my Madden 2005.

30:37 Oh my God. Quick side note. Have you guys seen, I know Fitzy knows where I'm going. Have you seen the teaser for the prime Madden movie with Nicolas Cage?

30:50 There's a Madden movie? Oh, he's playing Madden? Yeah.

30:54 Welcome to 2026. Yeah. Nicolas Cage is playing John Madden. It's your worst nightmare. I love Nicolas. You know my affinity for Nicolas Cage. Anyone who listens to our show, Erickson, on The Extra Point, Nicolas Cage is a huge piece of that show. Love Nicolas Cage and his weird quirks and stuff like that. Epic disaster. His version of John Madden and how he speaks... It is an abomination. Like it actually physically made me mad because he's not trying.

31:31 And then like apparently there's a report out there that they knew this was going to be the case and Cage talked about it. And they're like, let's just do it anyways. Fitz, you heard you heard it, right?

31:41 Yeah.

31:41 And my only hope for this movie is that much earlier, Nicolas is Nick Cage's career. He did a movie called Vampire's Kiss that was so over the top campy that it was actually kind of good. That's the only hope for this, and I give it about a 1% chance it's that category of movie.

31:59 I actually need it to be. The only problem is he's gone into this space where he just says yes to everything, and Nicolas Cage is doing all these weird campy movies, which some of them are really great. You need it to be over the top. I don't think it's going to be over the top. Comments below if you have seen this trailer and if you have any hope, because I love Nicolas Cage, love the theory of it.

32:18 It's oiled. water, vinegar, all the bad things that go together. Nothing goes together. Me and proper, you know, terms I can't even think of. When you listen to it, Erickson, please, when we're done with the show, just go listen to it and then tell me what you think. Report back. I apologize.

32:37 Go back.

32:37 You were talking about Madden. You were talking about this Lions and Vikings.

32:40 Oh, my.

32:42 This is definitely the best offense that the Vikings have faced since This season up there with the Green Bay Packers. And if you look at the Packers matchup, that was the game that the Vikings defense gave up the most points. They allowed 22 points and that game went way over the game total. They faced the Bears in bad weather.

32:57 Caleb Williams got hurt in that game. Bucks, Dolphins, Saints and Colts. And even dating back to last season, right? Because we have the Minnesota Vikings on this 11 game win streak. Eight of those nine games during that win streak have all gone under the total. So there's a reason why this team is winning so many games. When you have four different quarterbacks starting, it's because your defense is playing really well. But I also think that they've benefited from playing a lot of bad quarterbacks. Getting back to last year, here are the other quarterbacks that they faced.

33:26 Clayton Toon, Jackson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and a game that he got hurt in. One of the games that went over and that the defense gave up a lot of points was against Dak Prescott. Again, one of the elite quarterbacks. And I think there is a little bit of a revenge factor here where the last time we saw these teams play each other, I mean, I don't remember watching the game a lot because it was Christmas, and I felt like I had a better way to spend my time with my family than watching the Jared Goff-led Lions lose against the Max Brosmer Vikings defense and team when Brosmer threw for like, I think he threw like 10 times in that game, and then they just like, and knocked him out of the playoffs, right? The Lions were

34:03 like on life support in terms of their playoff hopes, and the Vikings with a third-string quarterback knocked him out. because of Brian Flores' defense just was getting all after Jared Goff. So I do think that I maybe ripped Jared Goff a little bit too much on the rank show. And after diving a little bit more into the numbers and how good Jared Goff has been this year, again, he's the number one quarterback in EPA per dropback against the Blitz this season. It's Jared Goff. So I actually think that this is going to be a slap of reality for the Minnesota Vikings defense. And as great as Brian Flores has been, I think it has a lot to do with the quarterbacks they have faced. And it reminds me a lot of all these Bill Belichick defenses

34:39 with the Patriots where they feasted on these terrible offenses week in and week out. And then when they had to go up a class in offensive matchup, they didn't necessarily meet the task. So I like the Lions here to score points, to be effective, Jameer Gibbs to dominate. So that's my take.

34:57 All right, a couple more games here. I sidetracked us with the Madden talk. Cleveland and Pittsburgh, this has become a really great matchup. Both teams 5-2. The Steelers have not lost a game at home, and they are hosting the Browns, both these 5-2 teams. Erickson, key to the game, which side do you like? Pittsburgh, Cleveland.

35:15 Taking the Browns. Fading the teams after they play international games without a bye week.

35:21 Oh, yes. That's the angle.

35:23 These teams have come out flat, have not delivered. Who lost last week as 10.5-point favorites? Houston Texans against Jason McCarthy making his first start. Who played an international game and didn't have a bye week in between? The Houston Texans. I rest my case. Go Browns.

35:38 Adjourned. Fitzy, same thing. Brown Steelers, both 5-2. Who's the top dog in this division when this week is over?

35:45 Yeah, the Browns are ahead of schedule in the rebuild. It's only week eight, but we're getting a divisional rematch already. Second game between these two teams. They played on Thursday night earlier in the season. The Browns won that one. Really good game in Cleveland. It just, the Browns defense especially seems like, I shouldn't even say especially because we're seeing some of these young receivers pop off for Cleveland.

36:09 And we saw Casey Concepcion have his first really big game last week. So That's a fascinating matchup. The young Browns pass catchers against Pittsburgh and this ahead of schedule Cleveland defense against Aaron Rodgers. Young defense, old offense. So this should be a fun game.

36:29 KC, we got the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are hosting the Chiefs. Another big matchup of five and one Chiefs, five and two Broncos. Broncos have not lost at home. By the way, just like when I Think about the Broncos. I don't think about that type of dominance and how they've been this year with the disasters of Bo Nix and Jalen Waddell and the running game. And it's amazing to see. And they have not lost a game at home. Fitzy, keys to the game here. Who do you think is getting out on top?

36:57 And do you think we get a settled running game out of Denver in this one?

37:01 I think Jonah Coleman is going to lead their backfield in touches and snaps. He had 30 snaps last week. RJ Harvey, 16. J.K. Dobbins, 14. I think we get more of the same, but going against a pretty good run defense but then again when we last saw jonah coleman before he went on ir back in week two he had a pretty decent day against the jaguars and that's the best run defense in the league so um slight edge to the broncos here the only thing i just the reason i would not bet this one do do we really think the chiefs are going to lay an egg offensively two games in a row because they didn't even get into the red zone against seattle last week i just I can't imagine Patrick Mahomes just playing two really poor games in a row. And Kenneth Walker,

37:47 you got to figure he's going to get back on track after Seattle just stuffed him in a locker last week.

37:53 And by the way, I mean, like, when's the last time just looking at this, like the Chiefs are a one and a half point road favorite. But like, how often do you see that with a team that's five and two and three and oh at home? You know, like it really does. The Lions are really telling that story of like, hey, that's great how good Denver has been.

38:11 And Denver could be a tough place to play. But do we really believe the Chiefs are going to have back-to-back stinkers? Erickson, what do you think about this one?

38:17 I like the Broncos. Home divisional underdogs. We see these teams always rise above week in and week out. And we think, why? We didn't see this happening. It's like, yeah, divisional matchups are always weird and always closer than we're anticipating. So the fact that the Broncos are catching points at home They haven't just won all their home games this year.

38:37 They've won 17 of their last 19 home games. So over the last season and a half, it's been the Denver Broncos are winning at home every single week, more often than not. And the Chiefs won eight against spread on the road in their last nine road games. So Chiefs haven't been that great on the road. Their offense has problems similar to the Denver Broncos offense. So I don't think there's going to be points in this game.

39:00 The last seven games between the Chiefs and Broncos have all gone under. So I think it's going to be back and forth. It's going to be tight. It's going to be defensive struggle. Both teams are really great in the red zone. And ultimately, it's going to come down to which quarterback has the ball at the end and who can make a play. So traditionally, that's been Denver Broncos and Bo Nix. And maybe not having Jalen Waddell will just make things simpler for the offense because they're not going to try to force fetch to happen, which unfortunately is the case with Jalen Waddell. And we'll see what Rashi Rice, if he comes back. But I know that the Broncos are also going to get back uh, Sertan this week as well.

39:31 Final one is that Monday night football game, uh, bears at the Seahawks. You want to talk about a tough place to play? Seattle is a, it looks like around a three point favorites are pretty standard stuff here. Chicago, obviously a bolstering with some moves three and one Seattle is at home. Uh, Erickson, How do you think this plays out? You know, an interesting one I was thinking about was Caleb Williams. And I think you were Caleb still over Jared Goff in the ranks episode. Do you think you still like Caleb over Goff in this one?

39:59 I think slightly. I probably ranked them pretty close to each other. But Caleb was just playing on another level against the New England Patriots. I thought he looked so, so good in that game. He can make plays with his legs. And unlike the Chiefs passing game and Chiefs offense overall, the Bears have so many ways in which they can beat you. Ben Johnson with extra time to take on this Mike McDonald defense. Just fascinated by two coaches who are top tier in their respective positions in terms of McDonald with defense. Ben Johnson with orchestrating this Bears offense. I'm just ready to sit down and watch this game. I really don't want to have any bold declarations of, oh, this is definitely going to happen. This

40:35 is definitely going to happen. I just want to see two of the best of the best go head to head and see who comes out on top.

40:42 Fitzy, what do you think? Pretty good Monday night matchup here. Don't know what the Seahawks running back situation is going to quite look like as we record this. Bears making good trends here. Do you think the Bears are going to be able to make this a real fight in Seattle?

40:54 I think their offense will put up a better fight than the Chiefs did last week, and it's going to be fun to see the chess match between Ben Johnson and Mike McDonald. So that, and it's going to be fun to see the Jeffrey Simmons debut on the other side of the ball. So yeah, this is going to be a really... It's Quentin Nelson too. Quentin Nelson. That's right.

41:11 This is going to be a really entertaining game, actually.

41:14 Fitzy, would it be a blasphemy after your Brewers just won the World Series to say, do you think the Bears can win this? Like, can I push you to a Bears win or should I just need to.

41:24 Oh, they.

41:25 Because you're not going to pick a Bears Chicago team.

41:28 They could win this game.

41:29 Absolutely.

41:29 Absolutely.

41:30 Like, you know, what you're supposed to do is they could win this game, but they're not.

41:35 You should just go full villain.

41:36 The Brewers just won the World Series. Just be a villain.

41:38 I'm going to see you full villain. Go, go find the Trevor McGill quote about Chicago after they. Oh, yes, absolutely.

41:46 All right, let's make some calls and let's give everybody a thing to watch. Before we do, I want to give you guys a chance to win one of the most unique pieces of NFL fan gear out there. It's the large NFLPA Wall Smack. That's courtesy of our friends over at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware. Their oversized, officially licensed NFLPA Wall Smack are bold statement pieces that are perfect for your fan cave, office, or even your living room. It's not just a core, it's a way to rep your favorite players in style.

42:12 Here's all you gotta do. Subscribe to the Tailgate YouTube channel. Do that right now. Drop a comment below. And that's it. That's it. You're entered. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on notifications so you've got a chance to claim this prize. Probably one of the last ones, too, before we do that.

42:28 So make sure you... Subscribe and make a comment. All right, Fitzy, make a big call. I don't remember what your big call was last week. I think you hit the what to watch, but I think last week you thought J.J. McCarthy was going to turn into a pumpkin.

42:41 I did.

42:41 So what direction are you going to go for this one?

42:43 I'm going to say the Cardinals upset the Cowboys in Dallas because Dallas, after playing a pretty good game against the Eagles— A definitely compromised Eagles team, though. Riding high, it would be just like the Dallas Cowboys to come home and lose to the Cardinals.

43:01 The only thing I can think about, though, is if people got to watch the ranks episode where we're talking about Jacoby Brissett and then just cold-blooded Fitzy is just like, Brissett stinks. That's all. I don't remember what your line was, but you just you killed me with it. But that's funny to hear. All right, Erickson, your call for the week.

43:20 Chase Brown. RB1 Sisson for the first time. He has zero top 12 finishes so far in fantasy this year. That stops here in week eight. He goes for over 100 yards and two touchdowns because not only is he taking on Tennessee Titans run defense that got boat raced by the Browns rushing attack, they just traded away their best defensive tackle in Jeffrey Simmons. So no longer there to plug up the run. I think this is where Chase Brown finally gets off the schneid, finally gets going and keeps his job because apparently if Chase Brown sucks again, Jonathan Taylor is coming in to take his job. So come on, Chase Brown. We need you. We need you, buddy.

43:56 I just went from a week of making the best calls to I'm just going to set myself up for like the worst calls and just have an ultimate one because I am going to I'm going to take a look at the Chargers and I'm going to say the Chargers are going to come off of this by looking like the Chargers of old commitment. The commitment in the bye week was still to McDaniel. They get to rest, they get to revamp, they get to relook, and they get to reestablish these guys. Ladd McConkie looks like we're back.

44:24 The Rams defense hasn't been great. There's still no Myles Garrett. I think with that rest and that recharge that the Chargers are going to look like the team that we thought they were.

44:36 I dare I.

44:37 want to say that they're going to be able to win this game, but I think you might see some semblance of the Chargers that we knew before. So that's going to be my call. But what's one thing to watch, Fitzy?

44:48 Didn't make your top five in games, Welsh, but Falcons-Buccaneers is pretty interesting. The Bucs really tightened up the NFC South by stomping the Panthers last week. And I think the Bucs might be the best and most complete team in the division. Like that defense is for real. The offensive line is pretty good. They can run the ball.

45:08 And Baker Mayfield, always a bit of a wild card week to week, but we know what Baker's capable of. So Falcons, Buccaneers, really interesting game. And the Bucs can get right back in the race, especially everyone's within a game and a half of each other. And it could be even tighter than that if the Packers take our business at home on Thursday night.

45:26 Erickson, what is one thing to watch?

45:29 Monday Night Football, Ben Johnson against Mike McDonald. Chess match that I'm so looking forward to seeing who comes out on top.

45:36 It's like the Professor X and Magneto just chess match of just– this is going to be gorgeous. Mine, I think we've kind of done this before, but I think it's not just even– I wrote if, but I think the Jets are going to beat the Raiders. And then the cry and the scream is going to be incredibly loud for Fernando Mendoza. And not only do I think we will see Mendoza in a portion of this game– I think he starts in Week 9. I think this will be it when Kirk Cousins leads him to another loss.

46:08 And that's going to be my big call. So Fernando Mendoza in Week 9. We see him a little bit in this game. And Jets are going to take down the Raiders. But what are your guys' big calls? Drop them in the comments below. It can help you win some stuff if you're subscribed as well. And then obviously I want to hear your– I'm dying to hear your guys' John Madden, Nicolas Cage takes on how that's going to go.

46:27 So we can revamp that. If you guys have enjoyed the podcast– Uh, we've given you incentive, but also make sure you're subscribed. If you listen on the podcast front, you can come over to YouTube at tailgate NFL. If you want to follow it, check out the visuals and have so much fun with it. And, uh, also want to remind you guys, check out the betting pros podcast for the best NFL bets during every single week of the NFL season. Plus Erickson and I will have our best bets, um, our props, our best props, top 10 props.

46:52 And we're coming off our best week, multiple touchdown calls. We were both over 500. So come and check that out over on Betting Pros. That's going to do it. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us. Tailgate's got to get over because we got to get in for Andrew Erickson and Fitzy. I'm Welsh. You guys have a great one. And we'll talk to you next time right here on the Tailgate.