Wealth, Trade & Growth Mindset: Shanker Singham on Global Economics & Human Flourishing

0:00 So when I talk about wealth creation, I'm really talking about the realisation of ideas. So the journey from idea generation to idea crystallisation, you know, money is just a measurement of how how effective you are at that process. So that's when I talk about wealth, that's what I'm talking about.

0:18 And the sort of final thing that I've sort of learnt is that competition is the most powerful force we know to actually create wealth. And we kind of, you know, know this intuitively ourselves, you know that nobody. Forces of demand and supply. And nobody wants to compete. You know, I used to be a a 400 metre runner and you know, I found that I always had my best races from the outside lane, largely because when you're in the outside lane in a 400, you run on fear. But if but nobody wakes up thinking, oh I'd love to compete today and everyone wants a quiet life. Welcome to the King Dems Podcast, where we share the stories of extraordinary people and dissect hot, relevant topics that shape our world.

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1:24 Before we dive back into today's conversation, I want to share something important. This episode includes a pay partnership with Better Help, a platform designed to make starting therapy easier. I know for my own journey as a leader and entrepreneur that life can sometimes feel overwhelming. There are seasons, severe stress, uncertainty and pressure build up, and you need a safe space to process it all that severe therapy comes in.

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2:21 If you've been thinking about it, sometimes the best investment you can make these. Game yourself, ladies and gentlemen, life once again welcome to the Kingdom's podcast and the diary of the CFO. And today I've got would be a very, very important guest fighting out of London, England by way of Washington, the CEO of State of America, the Qualcomm, Shankar Singh. How are you, Sagar?

2:47 I am very well. Thank you. Very good to be on. Whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm so grateful, you know, having you on the show, like I told you before we started that I told you, you don't want us to do this. But you know, the saviour, there's a real, there is a way. Not many people are privileged to have to be in space, to have their body of work have global impact and global relevance. And you do that.

3:18 And I'm super grateful to have this discussion with you. Growing up, I read a lot of great minds, the body of work with great minds, top philosophers, you know, the ancient philosophers, the Greek philosophers like Socrates, Aristotle, Factory, even contemporary ones like we think Churchill. A lot of people did not know Winston Churchill was actually a great writer, won the Nobel Prize for literature. And imagine the privilege of having conversations with these great minds.

3:50 And I'm privileged to have conversations with the great minds of my own time. I feel very blessed. I feel very, very blessed. Also good welcome. So I've actually pinned down this introduction and give you flowers. So you sit back and while I do the honours. So today are the King Games broadcast and Gary the CFOI have the honour sitting down with one of the world's most respected voices on trade, competition and economy prosperity. Shankar Singh Khan as chairman of the Growth Commission and CEO of competitor Shankar has advised across the globe offered Seminole works like a general theory of trade and competition and set as a trusted force to policy makers at the highest level.

4:36 From shaping global trade policy to exploring how open and competitive markets feel human flourishing, these Carpier has been dedicated to helping nations unlock prosperity. Today, we'll dive into the pressing challenges and opportunities of global trade and also explore personal philosophies. The Dragons work.

4:56 Shankar, welcome to the show. Thank you very much. It's great to be here. You're always welcome, of course, you know, let's talk about the foundations and of course, the philosophies. You've been described as one of the leading global experts in trade and competition law. What's packed your passion for these subjects, and how has your personal journey shaped your perspective on economic policy?

5:17 Well, what's really shaped me is, is the experience at the coalface working with companies that have been trying to trade and improve economic opportunities for consumers around the world. What I've seen in the course of the last 30 + 35 almost years in doing this is that there are various barriers to economic growth that we see.

5:47 Some are obvious, like tariffs and trade barriers that are, that are at the border. Some are less obvious. And in fact, the less obvious ones, the ones that damage economic growth, you know, inside the border are much harder to deal with. And so I spent a good bit of time trying to sort of understand the interaction between all of the different restrictions that apply.

6:09 And I guess what, what I've come to believe and it is, it has been a journey as you, as you pointed out, it's not something I sort of grew up believing in. It's something I sort of came to, which is first of all, the wealth is, can be created or destroyed, but it's very easy to destroy and very hard to create.

6:30 Absolutely. And when we talk about wealth also that it's also important to understand, you know, we need to use language. And you quoted a few people, Aristotle and so on, who talked a lot about language use language, you know, very, very precisely. So when I talk about wealth creation, I'm really talking about the realisation of ideas. So the journey from idea generation to idea crystallisation, you know, money is just a measurement of how how effective you are at that process. So that's when I talk about wealth, that's what I'm talking about.

7:03 And the sort of final thing that I've sort of learned is that competition is the most powerful force we know to actually create wealth. And we kind of, you know, know this intuitively ourselves, you know, nobody. Forces of demand and supply and. Nobody wants to compete. You know, I used to be a a 400 metre runner and you know, I found that I always had my best races from the outside lane, largely because when you're in the outside lane in a 400, you run on fear sort of. But nobody wakes up thinking, oh, I'd love to compete today. Everyone wants a quiet life.

7:34 In fact, there was a famous Supreme Court judge who said the best monopoly prophet is a quiet life. So, you know, nobody wants to compete, but we also, we all know that competition makes us better. It takes us to a place that we wouldn't otherwise be be able to, to, to, to, to reach. And that's, it's such a powerful force in, in the sort of human psyche.

7:55 So those are the kind of principles that that we need to apply to economic systems. And the test of a of, of an economic system that works is how well it applies those forces and how will it therefore allows wealth to be created and prosperity to be unleashed. And that's kind of what I've been working on for my career, really.

8:13 Wow, There's a lot to unpack what you've just said. First of all, I feel very, very people as you know, having these conversation because I do have a first degree in economics for the habit of bacteria that is a bachelor university. And when I was given the opportunity to have this conversation with you very sad out to quote it our partners, you know, they brought up the topic and said would you like to speak with this expert? It was a no brainer have a first degree economics, even though I never worked as an economist, you know, I keep it head into accounting work for the global be for accounting terms and you know, MBA entrepreneurship economics is at the it's a better because everything I

9:00 would do like to social science. Man is a social animal and the financial the economic behaviour of man is what is studied in economics. You know, you have a macro and across the micro and you talked about competition. You talked about, well, you know, being easy to destroy and difficult to create just to bring it to a granular level for our audience for the lead man. You reminded me of something I was explaining to your friend. I said, look at this building.

9:30 You have a beef. It's it's a five Storey building. How many months do you think it took to build this building? Maybe or yeah, but you know, we could hire contractors to bring break it all down in one day. So that is your classic example. It's very, very easy to destroy, but difficult, you know, to build.

9:50 And you know, I come from Nigeria. Big shout out to my people. I'm always with my Nigerian flag. I love my country a lot and it's a developing economy and development economics is a whole branch of economics on its own. And I remember a lecturer called Rest His Soul taught me in university, he was fond of seeing something probably about Nigeria as a developing economy is the fact that we produce what we don't consume and we consume what we don't produce. And I'll tell you something, targeting economics helped me to shift my perspective in life.

10:26 And you know, when you talk about the competitive advantage, it's interesting we're talking about competition here. I thought to myself, what are my talents as a person growing up, I used to sing and I used to speak, have presentations, but I oftentimes met people who could sing better than me. But I never really met people who were good at having intellectual conversations like myself or presentations.

10:50 And I decided to go for the competitive advantage. Like, OK, I know I could be the best in the world at this stage. And as we speak right now, I I have two globally ranked podcasts. The King Games podcast is ranked global top 2.5% carrier for CF OS ranked global top 5%. And just to give you context, both shows are less than two years. The second show that is ranked global top 5% is just three months old.

11:18 We need to within three months and two top 5% in the world. That means you have actually taken the line of your competitive advantage as an individual. But now we bring it back to, you know, the macro level and also not forgetting the micro level as well. If your work. You always talk about human flourishing. So can't you explain how trade competition policy directly affects the everyday lives of ordinary people? Yeah.

11:46 So if you sort of think about what I described as a sort of fundamental principles of economic growth, why does why does economic growth matter? It matters because what what is an what is an economy? An economy is essentially a series of billions of voluntary exchanges between human beings. You know, so, so for you're an entrepreneur, if an entrepreneur comes up with a particular product that people want, then they're meeting a human need. And they, you know, people come together in voluntary exchange to meet human needs.

12:16 And there are billions and billions of these transactions going along at along at any time, you know, in the world. And what you want to do in a, in a society and in a society where human beings flourish is you want to ensure that there is, there are as few barriers as possible to those kinds of voluntary exchanges. So there's nothing in the way of those people seeking to meet human need in the in the, in those voluntary exchanges and all sort of theory of this is the things that get in the way of those voluntary exchanges, we call anti competitive market distortions, which, which are essentially anything distortions a good word because if you think about a radio signal, for example, it's distorted when you

12:56 know the pathway between the listener and the and the signal itself is somehow obscured by by something. And that's kind of how distortions work in the global economy. So what we're trying to do is say, well, can we measure these distortions? And I've developed an economic model that allows people to allows you to measure the economic effects of these distortions. And it's significantly worse than people think. It's measured in terms of losses to productivity and losses to GDP per capita.

13:29 Essentially, that's household income. So, you know, a particular distortion might cost the average person in Nigeria, for example, if the distortions in Nigeria, you know, it might be $500 per person per year, it might be $5000 per person per year, but it's it's going to be something. And what is very important with regard to human flourishing is, you know, it applies differentially between between different people.

13:57 So if you're rich, this distortion is inconvenient. You know, if the price of bread goes up by as a result of a distortion, if it goes up by, I don't know, 10 percent, 20%, if you're rich, it's kind of a inconvenience. If you're poor, it's a catastrophe. So and it can be the difference between, you know, choosing food versus heating versus, you know, all of these different things.

14:20 So it's the bottom layer of the socio economic sort of ladder that are most affected by these distortions and also most affected by reduction of these distortions. So if you want to let people be free and you want to allow them to aspire and to reach higher levels for both themselves and their children, you've got to get rid of these kinds of barriers and these these kinds of distortions.

14:43 Now you might think, well that that's obvious. So, so why doesn't it happen? You know, if it's so obvious? The problem we have is that there are beneficiaries of these distortions and the beneficiaries of these distortions tend to be the vested interests who want the status quo to be to be preserved.

15:01 I mean, they, they basically, they basically benefit enormously from the, the lack of competition, keeping the, the, the potential competitors and the new entrants out of this allows them to raise their prices and, and make more revenue. And so those people tend to be very politically powerful. And in fact, when you look at developing countries, and we've done this work in about 80 different countries, they tend to be even more powerful in developing countries. And almost the smaller the country, the more powerful these kinds of forces actually are.

15:31 And so the people most in need of reform are the ones who find it most difficult to do it. And so that has been a big challenge in the global economy. And that's one of the reasons why, you know, we haven't seen the level of economic growth that we'd like to see in in, in the world. In fact, if you look at the way global GDP has has moved in the last, let's say 2000 years between 0AD and let's say 1930 before the First World War, the global economy grew by only a fact. It doubled essentially in size in that almost 2000 years between 1947.

16:08 After the Second World War and 2001, in that 50 or so year period, it grew by a factor of 7 or 8. So it it it, it, it doubled in 1900 years. And then after the Second World War it grew by a factor of 7 or 8. So it's real hockey stick kind of graph and the, and the question is what's what caused that? What's the reason for that?

16:32 And it, the power of it is not to be underestimated. I mean, we, we managed to reduce the number of people living on a dollar a day. The sort of absolute poverty level. We actually reduced that by before the financial crisis, we, we reduced it to zero. There were, there was nobody in the world living on less than a dollar a day. Unfortunately that is now increasing again. Growth has sort of fallen off in the last 25 years and that's one of the reasons this has this has happened. But and actually in particular developed country growth has also fallen off in the last 25 years. So what we're trying to do in our modelling is sort of explain to people what is being lost by these kinds of distortions so that those people who want

17:17 reform are better able to achieve it because they're better able to communicate the gains of reform in a way that they haven't really been able to do in the past. Wow. You touched a lot of things, a lot to unpack, right? In economic, technical terms, price of elasticity, price sensitivity. You also talking about Museum of Power priority, but who better to speak to than a professional and an entrepreneur who actually comes from a developing economy, right?

17:51 I will see it as a tease. I'm pretty sure that you studied economics and to understand in depth, you know, these terms that you are actually doing a very, very great job to simplify, right? I appreciate how much you are simplifying these things or you dropped a question, you know, as to why this, you know, things or these patterns are ongoing without an end. And it reminds me of a particular, you know, concept that are studying in Congress and it's called the vicious cycle of poverty.

18:28 A lot for you to touch in it. You know, while we we we set way into the next question, talking about the global trade dynamics. I really want us to touch on the the elephant in the room, the reason why I quoted brought us together. And, you know, it's the big one, the US, China trade nation. How do you see, you know, China's industrial policies and overproduction affecting global markets and of course, the US industries as the US are very, very, very vocal about this right now, especially from a political standpoint.

19:02 And of course, in your experience, like what roles? Do. These trade negotiations play in addressing balances and what mistakes to policymakers often make in these conversations. Yeah. I think to answer that, you sort of got to go back to how we got here. And so if you look at that period, I talked about that huge impact on economic growth and, and lifting people out of poverty.

19:25 A lot of that was to do with the international trade system that was designed to remove a lot of these barriers, you know, when after the Second World War. And perhaps one of the reasons for the Second World War was the, the sort of very high tariffs between countries and very the difficulty of trading between countries. A lot of those sort of border barriers, the obvious barriers that I talked about went down in the course of those trade negotiations that happened after the Second World War. But we came to a sort of stop after the 1980s when the what's called the Uruguay Round, which is the the the trade round between 1986 and 1994.

20:02 Concluded what was supposed to happen is we were supposed to move through the 1970s and the 1980s to deal not only with the tariffs, the border barriers, but to deal with these internal distortions as well. Now, at the same time some big things were happening, you know, the the fall of the Soviet Union, a lot of these countries were coming into the international trading system. They had a legacy of a lot of these kinds of barriers and distortion.

20:26 India moved from being a country that was entirely sort of import substitution to open to, to, to, to trade and open to markets and to market economy. Latin America also transitioned at this time. So you had a huge numbers of people coming into the trading system. And of course, we also had the China VTR accession.

20:46 Now, what we failed to do, when it's, you can say this with hindsight, and I was very involved in the transition, of course. Yeah. But I, I was involved in the in the transitions in these countries in the in the early 90s, both in Latin America and in the former Soviet Union. And what we failed to do, we assume that if you open up the border, the competition will automatically follow and economic democracy will follow that and political democracy will follow that.

21:10 And of course, none of these things actually happened. And they partly didn't happen because particularly in in the case of China, we ignored the internal distortions. We sort of pretended they they weren't there, although we we pretended they would simply disappear once China was part of the sort of global trading community and this did not happen. We were supposed to embark on this kind of work after the Uruguay Round in 1997.

21:34 I think people may remember the 1999 Seattle trade ministerial riots where there were crowds on the streets. But what was more damaging, I think, was a number of people in the rooms in these ministerial discussions who essentially said we don't really care about internal distortions. You know, the job of the trading system is to deal with tariffs and to deal with, you know, obvious border barriers.

21:59 What we do inside our markets is sort of up to us, which is fine. You, you can, you can do that. But if you're doing something inside your market that damages your trading partners, you can expect your trading partners to take some sort of action. And it is lower motion. The third motion, yes action, is an equal opposite reaction. Right.

22:20 And there was and there was a reaction and the failure to deal. So China steel case is a good example because in the case of China Steel, you had enormous barriers in the steel market in China. The essentially the government gave these companies, these state owned companies, Freeland free water free energy, free everything. Naturally there was an overproduction of seal. They had to sell it somewhere.

22:42 So they sold it basically to the US consumer who tends to be the sort of buyer of last resort. And of course this meant that the competitive companies, the producers in the US, you know, places like Ohio and Pennsylvania and so on went out of business. What happens when that occurs? And this is what happened through the thousands and 2000 and 10s is that you get this anger that builds up among people. You know, why is this happening?

23:04 Why have I lost my job here? They don't say what I've just said. They don't say, well, this is because of a failure of the trading system to deal with distortions and therefore we need to deal with distortions better. I'm going to ask my government to deal with distortions better. They just say the whole thing is bad. I was promised all these things from the liberalised globalised trading system and I didn't get any of them. And I'd see Wall Street getting very, very. So I'm going to basically I'm going to put in place a candidate or a politician who will protect me from all of these things.

23:36 And, you know, frankly, President Trump kind of rode the wave of this in 2016 and responded by saying he was going to protect people from this type of this type of insortion. Wasn't just in the US. You know, in the UK, Red Car, Paul Talbot, I mean, there were youth unemployment rates of 90% in some of these places, particular times when steel mills closed down. So it was, you know, widespread effect. And this is basically what's happening in the US, China relationship now is trying to work out these problems. We saw this also in textiles we see in lots of different companies.

24:09 And what I think the administration, the US currently is engaged on with China and actually with other countries in the world is, you know, these things, these distortions, these regulatory barriers, these behind the border barriers actually have a huge effect on trade. And by the way, they have a huge effect on their own economy as well. So the China economy is not in good shape right now and in fact would be improved if they eliminated a lot of these barriers and distortion.

24:34 So there's actually a sort of unity of interest between the exporter and the domestic consumer. They both want the same the same thing and the economy of the country that's doing the distorting would benefit if it lowered the distortion. But I mean this, this tells you a little bit about the, how powerful the forces are that oppose that kind of reform. Because if that is true and the country benefits and the trading partner benefits, you know, that's how wealth is created, then why why don't we do it?

25:02 What, why is it so difficult to do? Well, it's so difficult to do because these powerful forces really oppose it. And they're very, very strong. And in addition to that, you've got some other issues with regard to China, with regard to sort of national security and all of these things as well. So it's a complicated relationship, but it's a relationship that sort of defines the global picture as well.

25:22 So global. Landscape. Wow, I know that you are a very busy man. Of course, you know, you have this really crunch for time and of course we have just 4 minutes to save the life, right? 4 minutes left, yes. Whenever I'm asked what's the cost of all these things, I always need two word answer. Automation and recession, right? It's interesting what's happening in the global landscape with the introduction of AI. We need to use it to leverage efficiency. But the powers that be, you know, just tortures are trying to resist it or it's like a tsunami. You know, it's it's going to come and watch, you know, the whole elementary.

25:59 So the world really needs to give way and, you know, has to conform in order to ensure that global efficiency, You know, talking about competition. Pretty warm. We've actually worked, you know, across the globe with countries like Brazil to South Korea to Morocco, like helping them design through competitive regulatory frameworks.

26:19 You know, I'm quite curious about, you know, what the patterns have been, the lessons that have stood out. And of course, you know, that's read these into your leadership. If you currently chaired the growth Commission and that's important economists that tackle slow growth in T7 countries. You know, what have been the borders ideas, you know, currently on the table for big banks And you know from a personal standpoint, what do you think is the most efficient solution to tackle these economic prices that we've seen at the global? Well, the interesting thing is when we developed our economic model that shows that the attempts to evaluate the cost of these distortions, we found something that was somewhat counterintuitive, which is that

27:01 we break this into three sort of fundamental pillars. And how open is your trade regime? How competitive is your market? How well do you protect property rights? So within those 3 pillars, there are very direct and very robust correlations between in GDP per capita and positive movements in those in those pillars.

27:18 But what we found is that an equivalent movement in or positive movement in each of those 3 pillars does not have the same GDP per capita effect. So in fact, they're quite big differences between them. So if I improve my trade environment by which is principally border, border barriers, I reduce border barriers by a certain percentage, I get a, a gain in GDP per capita.

27:41 But if I had to apply that the same percentage to my regulatory system, my domestic regulatory system, I get a gain that's three or four times as great. And if I, if I apply that to my property rights protecting environment, I get a gain that's about twice as great. So this is counterintuitive. We tend to think that the main thing to do is to reduce the border barriers and then everything else is kind of a icing on the cake. Actually, what we're finding is that it's the other way around. What you need to do is improve your regulatory regime first, improve your domestic protection of investment property rights and that kind of thing first.

28:14 Then you can open up your, your, your, your, your work on your border, border arrangements. And we kind of did this the other way route and we assumed you do the border stuff and everything else flows. Actually, we should have done all three things together and that's kind of the learning that we have. So in terms of what we recommend now, we go where the gain is the biggest pull, the pull the biggest lever first, which is regulatory reform.

28:39 So that is the single biggest challenge that that the countries face. We've seen a massive increase in, particularly in in the developed world, actually more so than the developing world, but we've seen a massive increase in regulatory burden. And this isn't just about business. People tend to think of regulations or they think of business compliance costs.

28:58 And so they sort of talk about deregulation or regulation. And that's not really the issue. The issue is does that particular regulatory rule benefit a powerful incumbent company to the detriment of new entrants or entrepreneurs? That's really the fundamental question you've got to ask. Does it affect the competitive landscape?

29:16 And some of these, some of them don't have any effect at all. And that's all fine. But for those that do seems to be very, very careful about them. And they need to also look at their existing rule books and see, well, how much of this is really actually affecting market competition. It may not have been intended to do that, but it's having that effect.

29:35 So we need to do something about it. It was an interesting study recently on the federal rule book in the US, which is, as you know, many thousands and thousands of pages, the about 30, 1 to 37% of market share improvements. In other words, companies getting more market power were due to federal regulation, not their own business acumen, not their efficiency, not their quality. But essentially what this is, is large companies protecting their market share through regulation, you know, was going to the government.

30:06 Lobbying. To block their their their opponents. So this is the kind of thing that that you need to deal with and what we're seeing is there is an awful lot of this. It's a morass and it's very difficult to challenge because these, they tend to build on each other. It's like a, it's like a set of weeds in a golden. You know, it's not easy to weed the gold because you don't know you might accidentally pull up a flower, you know, while you're trying to weed the golden.

30:28 So it's very difficult to deal with these kinds of issues, but they are they are the issues that give you the biggest gain by far of anything a government can do me to you. I am very, very grateful, you know, having you on the podcast today. I will not be able to take the quick pie around, but our life for you to leave us.

30:47 We just want Nuggets, you know, let's us pie the next generation of leaders. Many of our listeners are entrepreneurs, young leaders, and even students. What's your advice for the next generation and what's one book that would advise everyone should need on economic prosperity? Well, I would be remiss if I didn't talk about my recent book on on trade and regulation and and and economics. Let's get the book.

31:15 These so we're added to the description. Yes, absolutely so so I've written actually 4/4 books now on distortions. We need all four. We need all four of the. Description, but, but so I would recommend, you know, obviously I'd recommend my in books, but I mean, I think the what people need to to to to be clear about I think is this issue of voluntary exchange.

31:36 And what I found is a lot of young people who are very opposed to capitalism. They're very anti capitalist, as it were. But when you drill down what they oppose, what they're really opposed to is cronyism. And of course that is entirely right to be opposed to that and that's exactly what what I would be opposed to as well.

31:54 But I would, I mean, you talked to the beginning of the podcast about the great minds and you know, whether it's Aristotle writing on ethics or whether it's John Stuart Mill or Adam Smith, I mean, well, I'd always the advice I'd always give young people is always try to read and try to connect with you talked about it like a conversation and it is a conversation.

32:14 Have a conversation with the masters. Have a conversation with the ancients who really knew what they were talking about. And don't, don't read what somebody else has said about Adam Smith or John Stuart Mill or John Locke. Read the original stuff that they wrote and read. And reread it because you get something out of it when you're 18 that you're entirely different to what you get out of it when you're 35 or 55.

32:34 So I, I would say my strong advice is, you know, go back to those, those, those authors. There's a lot of wisdom, but that I would definitely recommend. I very, very much appreciate what you've just said. I remember that the very first book my father ever gifted me was Think and Grow Reach by Napoleon Hill.

32:54 And I remember I read that as a teenager. But just yesterday or the day before, I listened to a blinkist on that book and he gave me a new perspective. And of course, I'm really grateful to you. Thank you very much. Love and respect to you. Before you leave, if you want to give a shout out to anyone, let us know. And to the audience, always go for something in your lives. Constantly strive to thrive and achieve. So over to you.

33:23 For me it's goodbye. And of course, from Shankar Singham to the honours of you goodbye. And of course, a shout out to anybody who wants to appreciate. Well, thank you to you for hosting this and thank you to your audience for listening to it. I really enjoyed it and look forward to future, you know, interactions. Thank you very much.

33:41 Questions. Goodbye from us.