Could Democrats Actually Flip Texas This Time?

0:02 Bloomberg Audio Studios.

0:04 Podcasts. Radio.

0:06 News.

0:08 Democrats have really been trying to turn this state for a long time and really feel this year is their year.

0:15 Julie Fine is Bloomberg's Texas bureau chief.

0:19 Now, if you live in Texas, you know that many years Democrats hope it's their year and then it's very frustrating at the end of the cycle.

0:28 Yeah, it's Lucy with the football all over, it seems.

0:31 Josh Wingrove is a Washington correspondent for Bloomberg.

0:34 But there is reason to hope that this will be more interesting race for the reporters covering it. And there's reason for Democrats to hope that they will pull it out. I think that any time it's that sort of wave or tide election, it gets very difficult to predict what's going to happen.

0:52 I'm Sarah Holder, and this is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, the contentious Senate race in Texas. What it reveals about Trump's fundraising power and influence on the campaign trail. And what it would mean for his administration's next two years in office if Republicans lost a Texas Senate seat. Or the Senate altogether.

1:17 Julie.

1:17 In a midterm year that's already on track to blow past spending records, the Texas Senate race, which you've been following, is superlative. Combined, Republicans and Democrats have already spent roughly a quarter billion dollars, around $ 250 million. Why is the Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Tallarico so So competitive. Why doesn't Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate in Texas who has the endorsement of Trump, have this state pretty much locked up?

1:50 Well, I think what people really have to understand here is that Democrats have been trying to flip this for a long time. They feel that Attorney General Ken Paxton, because of personal issues, is an easier candidate to beat than John Cornyn would have been.

2:06 He's got a long history of questions about his conduct, questions about houses he owns. He was impeached by the Republican house. Some of this is sort of a situation of Trump's making. He indicated he would endorse in the race. It seemed like he meant for Cornyn, who of course was the incumbent Senator. He backed off that. And then of course, Paxton won the primary and that has caused problems both in terms of Cornyn now being a bit of a loose cannon as a sitting Senator serving out the rest of his term. But putting the seat into play in a way that a lot of people think wouldn't be the case of Cornyn were the nominee. Now, Paxton has argued he's the true mega candidate and therefore, you know, conservatives wouldn't be motivated if he were not

2:50 on the ballot. So I suppose that you get to pick who you want to believe. But I was talking to a pollster who said, you know, look, Tallarico really only needs to hit like 48% because there's also a libertarian candidate running. So I think there's two ways to sort of bleed votes from Ken Paxton and put this Senate race together. in a competitive place.

3:07 There is one thing to keep in mind. There will be Republicans that will not admit they're voting for Ken Paxton, and they will go in that booth and they will vote for Ken Paxton. So we have seen Ken Paxton get reelected amid legal problems in Texas several times. He was impeached, as Josh said, by the Republican House of Representatives, cleared of wrongdoing by the Senate. But he was impeached.

3:30 So this has been on the news for years.

3:33 And what was he impeached over? Can you say a little bit more about what those allegations were and why he was cleared?

3:37 Well, first of all, he was cleared because the Senate cleared him. They simply did not have the votes. He had had some legal problems in the past. There was questions of misuse of his office. But what I've also found very interesting about this Republican House that's made a The decision to do that is some of them have now endorsed him in the race for Senate. And what the line is you are hearing in Texas is vote for the ticket. You need to do it for the ticket.

4:05 You need to do it for the team. The attorney general's estranged wife recently did an ad saying, let's talk about the elephant in the room and basically said, vote for the whole team.

4:18 One thing about those ads to note is she wanted to talk about the elephant in the room. Doesn't say Ken Paxton's name, interestingly. And the scattershot nature of this really speaks to the fact that Republicans are being caught late in the cycle with the races more competitive than they thought. For instance, that ad is running all over the country. Whatever time slots they seem to be able to buy. You know, I'm seeing it when I watch football here in D.C. And so I think it seems like the Paxton camp is trying to basically throw everything at the wall here.

4:45 Well, I want to talk about where the money for these ads is coming from in a second and sort of the other elephant in the room being President Donald Trump. But I do want to ask about James Tallarico first. You know, what does Tallarico have going for him and what's behind his lead in the polls? Is it mostly about Paxton's shortcomings as a candidate? Or why is Tallarico gaining so much support?

5:05 James Tallarico is a unique candidate. He has a religious background, and he talks about that a lot with Texans. He's been in the state legislature, so he understands policy in the state of Texas. He's not Ken Paxton. So that appeals to some, you know, a lot of voters in the state of Texas. And he kind of came out of nowhere and he went on Joe Rogan and he made this big splash on the Joe Rogan podcast. And I think Joe Rogan encouraged him to run again. for office.

5:36 And he made a splash with a lot of different audiences and gained this nationwide following. And I think that's helped him dramatically, especially when it comes to fundraising.

5:45 And how does the fundraising stack up?

5:48 Well, before President Trump's PAC really weighed in, James Tallarico was way ahead in the fundraising. And now you're seeing a lot more Ken Paxton ads. You cannot watch a football game in the state of Texas. and not know about this Senate race. You just can't. Josh, and you talk about how you're seeing ads in other cities.

6:09 You know, football in even-numbered years in the fall is always a nightmare.

6:15 You can't avoid it.

6:16 A lot of campaign ads.

6:17 But so Tallarico was ahead, and then sort of Trump came in and put his finger on the scale a little bit?

6:23 Everyone has been waiting to see how Trump will spend his big war chest. He was sitting on nearly half a billion dollars in his MAGA Inc., Super PAC. And the filings are a bit out of date, so we don't really know. But what we know is money is rolling right now, either directly from MAGA Inc. or from other PACs that we think are aligned to MAGA Inc.

6:42 to the tunes of tens of millions or over $ 100 million to help boy Ken Paxton. Now, the question right now is, A, whether that'll be enough and B, could that money be used elsewhere? And that's the real potential trade-off for Republicans here is that at a time when we see the map really widening to other states that weren't thought to be competitive, for instance, Kansas, potentially Nebraska, potentially even South Carolina, and other Republican states like Alaska and Ohio that were competitive and seemed to be sort of more solidifying towards the lean Democrat direction. So the map is widening, money is finite. Republicans entered this cycle with a huge cash advantage, and they're having to put

7:18 it to work right now.

7:19 Is there an argument that they should be spending less on Paxton if it looks like he's sliding in the polls or more?

7:26 If you pull out of Texas, it is basically such a sign to Republicans that OMG. So I think they can't if they pull Republican money out of Texas, by the way. That's not to say if they pulled money out that he would not have a chance. But I think if Republicans pulled out of Texas, it is a huge statement and not one they want to make right now.

7:50 I talked to one Republican who said, look, the votes are there if we get them to the polls. Like, you know, Texas is a Republican state at the end of the day. And if we spend enough money, we can keep this seat red. But they're going to have to spend the money.

8:01 So keeping this seat red is about more than... just one Senate seat. This is about a symbolic victory for Republicans as well in a tough year that's become more contentious than I think anyone would have expected.

8:13 Democrats entered this cycle needing to flip four seats if they wanted to flip the Senate. It felt six months or so ago like quite a tall order, a bit of an uphill climb. Now it seems certainly plausible, if not a coin tosser, even likely in the eyes of some. The Texas seat really changes the math. I They only need to get, you know, three others. North Carolina looks like it's in the bags. Only two others. A lot of options for it. So this really does feel like a bellwether state in just so many ways. Not only just for the pure math of this cycle, but rhetorically, right?

8:47 Trump's redistricting wars in the House began in Texas. Those look like they might backfire, by the way. And it's just such a sort of bedrock situation. of the conservative movement in America that, you know, Democrats have just had their eye on it for cycle after cycle after cycle. I remember being interviewing someone in 2012 in the election saying like they were, you know, had their eye on Texas for Hillary four years later. Of course, that never materialized.

9:09 And so we'll see what happens. But right now, I think the question is sort of like, you know, who can get their side to turn out? What is the overall climate? And is the president's unpopularity weighing on some of these candidates, including Attorney General Paxton?

9:25 Coming up, more from my conversation with Julie Fine and Josh Wingrove. Well, I do want to zoom out and talk about other races where Trump has put his finger on the scale. We know that Trump has a lot riding on these midterm elections, but he's also very unpopular. Americans are frustrated with the economy. They're frustrated with U.S.

9:52 involvement in foreign conflicts, especially Iran. They're frustrated about the price of gas and diesel. Big picture, what are you seeing Trump doing on the campaign trail in the weeks leading up to the election to try and help Republicans win? And is it working?

10:09 Trump is playing defense, and I don't even think that does it justice. He is backed up on the goal line playing red line defense. He is in Oklahoma and Texas and Alabama and Ohio twice. And other places. And so I think right now he's basically trying to make sure that they drive Republican turnout, hardcore Republican voters. And he measures his presidency by that. He talks often about his approval rating among Republicans. But the question is whether that really is enough. And so I think the signs are right now that it's not clear how many districts want the president there. In states that he's going to, he's not really going to the competitive ones. For instance, he spent Monday night in Nebraska, not in the second district,

10:49 a House district that's currently Republican, but looks like it'll flip. And so, you know, he is doing what he always does, which is when in trouble, add more Trump. And he is telling people to pretend like he's on the ballot because he wants his voters to show up and vote. Of course, there's a lot of Democrats who would love for voters to pretend that Donald Trump is on the ballot because they think he's unpopular and that would be a tailwind for them.

11:11 So Trump will be in Texas tonight campaigning with Paxton on stage at a rally. What are you watching for from that appearance together?

11:20 I want to see the crowd. First of all, it's in San Antonio. I want to see how President Trump handles this. Attorney General Paxton, because coming up until now in many of these events, you've seen him really poke some fun at them. And the question is, does that undercut his message? I recently interviewed Attorney General Paxton. at the RNC midterm convention. And I actually asked him, I said, you know, President Trump strongly endorsed you last night, said you're the best attorney general. The same time he did poke some fun at you, does that undercut the message?

11:52 Right, he was making fun of how he looked, how he dressed.

11:54 Yeah, and when you think about headlines for the next day, that's going to make it into the headlines. And he was In Texas last week, pokes some fun at him again. That makes it into the headlines. I'm curious if finally he just comes out, gives him the endorsement, doesn't make fun of him, and just does it, plays it straight away.

12:13 Governor Abbott has a campaign event, I believe, of his own or a previously scheduled event. He will not be there this evening. So read into it what you will.

12:21 And has Abbott endorsed Paxton?

12:22 He has said he will support Republicans up and down the ticket.

12:26 Got it. On the ads, too, I am wondering, does any of the Trump super PAC money come with strings attached? Is there anything about Ken Paxton's campaign that has been sort of pushed in any direction by the involvement now of all this Trump money?

12:42 There's not a lot of strings attached. When super PACs jump in on Senate races, Paxton has reportedly, according to The New York Times, been complaining that he essentially can't get a word in edgewise over his own campaign, that it's all being run out of DC. So I suppose there's some inherent risk of that. There are sort of generally more strings attached to gubernatorial races, but Greg Abbott doesn't need their money. So that's sort of moot, but you know, right now there's just money flowing and doesn't face a lot of strings. And the question is, you know, is that money that Trump would have liked to spend somewhere else or hold to sort of, you know, burnish his credentials as the King maker going forward. One question

13:19 I have in my mind is how much money will be in the MAGA ink super pack coming out of this cycle? And will it be substantially more than zero? Is he going to hold back some of this money to continue to be able to dole it out in future cycles and remain influential in the Republican Party? I think right now that's an open question. And we're going to have to wait a couple weeks until the next set of filings to really get a true picture of how much he's opening the purse strings.

13:42 Mm-hmm. And what are you watching for in the next couple of weeks? What should listeners keep their eye on as we understand more where this money is going, who is spending, and what the polls are showing?

13:55 In Texas, I will be paying attention to is James Tallarico spending a lot of time in the cities or is he getting out to the more red areas? So I'm going to really watch where they are campaigning. I'm also going to watch if Ken Paxton is campaigning because he has very few public events that compared to James Tallarico.

14:14 And what about you, Josh? Beyond Texas, in some of these other contested states, what are you watching for?

14:19 We learned yesterday that Trump will go back to Ohio, for instance. So that's going to be three trips for Trump or Vance to Ohio in the span of about 10 days. The president said the other day that he would campaign in Maine. I will be looking to see if that's true. Another one to watch will be Michigan, which, of course, is a Democratic seat now. Gary Peters retiring, and Abdul El-Sayed won a very contentious primary for the Democratic Party there. Will Trump go to Michigan? Georgia looks like it's slipping away in a bit of a lost cause.

14:46 And Trump went to Mobile, Alabama a few days ago for some potential Florida spillover as some Republicans start to warn that Byron Donalds and the governor's race in Florida is maybe in trouble. Now, all of these things could maybe not materialize, right? These could all be things where ultimately Republican voters come home and do what they do, which is vote Republican. But for Trump, you know, let's not lose sight of what's happening here. He is playing defense in deep red places. One question, if you're not like steeped in this, is why does this matter? You know, the House has been expected to flip for a while.

15:17 That's going to lead to a lot of oversight investigations into Trump, into his businesses, into crypto and all that kinds of things. The Senate would really make a big difference. Nominees would basically stop. This year wasn't supposed to be Democrats' year in the Senate, right? A third of the chamber is up every two years. This wasn't a very good Dem cycle for them. And so I think that just speaks to how quickly things are changing. And if Trump has neither the House nor the Senate for the last two years of his presidency, boy, I think it could get pretty unpredictable pretty quickly.

15:50 This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg.com, subscribe today at Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer. If you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.