Week-7 Fantasy Debrief with Chace Daskalos

Bye.

Welcome in everybody to Chase the Data here on NFL Fantasy. I'm your host Joe Pizzoppia. With me, the man inside the numbers, Chase Daskalos. And we're going to talk about everything that happened last week in the NFL and look ahead to week eight as well. So make sure you subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And Chase, let's jump right into it. And let's start with Thursday Night Football because obviously the Bears continue to look like a team that is really on the upswing. Ben Johnson feels like the offensive genius we all thought he was, especially now that Caleb Williams has returned and is healthy. That Bears attack is a lot. So let's talk about what the first couple weeks of the season looked like and now

what we're seeing in these last two since his return from that hamstring injury.

Yeah, really nice win for the Bears here on TNF. Where I wanted to start was with the Caleb Williams thing. What did we see from him in weeks one and two? What have we seen from him in the last two weeks in weeks six and seven? So first of all, in weeks one and two, Caleb Williams, 17% scramble run rate, 3.42 second average time to throw. And by the way, Kalief Raymond, team high 25% target share over those first two weeks. Completely different from Caleb over the last two weeks, including on Thursday night against the Patriots. 5% scramble run rate, 3.07 second average time to throw, 6% target share for Kalief Raymond too. So Caleb playing much more under control.

It's much more fantasy-friendly for pass catchers. What has these changes led to? Well, Colson Loveland tied in two over the last two weeks with Caleb back. Luther Burden, wide receiver five over the last two weeks. So these are guys that most of the fantasy community was kind of out on after the first two weeks into the season.

It looks like they're back. Route participation remains a little bit of a small issue for Luther Burden. 26 routes on 39 Caleb Williams dropbacks in this game, so 67%. Route participation is right in line with the 66% route participation so far this season. Obviously, we would love to see that go up and up and up. And why it might is, unfortunately, Cole Komet out for the season with a knee injury. This is going to get really interesting to see how it affects the Bears personnel packages.

And this is where it might affect Luther Burden. The Bears have used 12 or 13 personnel on 51% of their plays so far this season. Luther Burden has played on just 27%. So when they go multiple tight ends, Luther Burden is kind of the man left out. But he's played 96% of their 11 personnel snaps. So we will see moving forward, without Cole Komet, how much does this affect the Bears' usage of tight ends? And can we get Luther Burden more on the field? Because when the guy's on the field, my goodness, he is electric.

Yeah, I know on our show together on YouTube, we talked quite a bit about the Luther Burden efficiency. And if we could just get a little bit more action going his way, That could be a huge boon for his fantasy value because a lot of those deeper stats really do portend to him being elite, even though the weekly output isn't always that. So we're hoping that we continue to get a little bit more of that as the season goes on. I think we will. I'm cautiously optimistic and I'm so happy that I held on to Loveland and had all the patience. It was trying my patience.

I'll be honest with you for a couple of weeks. And I was still steadfast. Let's hold Colson Loveland. Let's not forget everything that happened the second half of last year. Let's not forget everything that happened in the playoffs last year. And sure enough, Caleb comes back. Colson Loveland's relevant again. Now, the Patriots fell to the Bears in this game. I want to talk a little bit about Drake May at first. Obviously, the first three weeks of the season, not great for Drake May. We talked about the buy opportunity for him in week four against the Buffalo Bills. Since then, he was QB1, QB1, QB4, and QB2. Maybe it's not always perfect, but certainly from a fantasy perspective, the stats have been

there in spades.

Yeah, so the numbers on that too. So weeks one through three for Drake May, when it felt like the sky was falling in New England and everyone was out, 7.2 fantasy points per game. It crossed weeks four, five, six, and seven now. You mentioned how well he's finished in those rankings, the quarterback rankings. 29.2 fantasy points per game.

So 22 more fantasy points per game. For Drake May, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points among quarterbacks so far this season, too. So that is something that we've seen him. He's such a good scrambler. He did it in a small sample in his rookie season. He did it last year and it's back again this year. So I think very under the radar that Drake May, especially in an NFL sort of a changing landscape where designed quarterback runs are on the decline. That's something that as fantasy owners, we like to chase those design quarterback runs over the years. Those aren't happening that much anymore. So where you're getting the rushing production is from quarterback scrambling.

And Drake May is top three, basically, in that metric. AJ Brown, another disappointing week. He's caught just six of 16 targets so far this year. There's drops in there, whether that's because he hasn't been able to separate because of the ankle. There's kind of a lot going on here. He has 186 unrealized air yards over the last two weeks since he returns. That's the second most in the NFL.

That is air yards on incomplete targets. That is usually a really good buy low signal. It shows that that downfield opportunity has been there, but it hasn't been capitalized on it yet. I've had a buy A.J. Brown stance for the last two weeks. I think I want to like triple down on that. I know that it doesn't look very good with him right now. I think maybe I sort of rushed judgment and, you know, it takes a little bit of time for these guys coming off of these high ankles, even at wide receiver where you're using your hands more than your ankle. Like I think maybe I rushed into a little bit, I think just a little more patience with holding out on AJ Brown.

I think that could be very beneficial.

I've also been on the buy wagon for AJ Brown. After the second week, it got a little bit tougher. It feels like You mentioned the expected air yards. It feels like the expected fantasy points should have been over 100 because it feels like it really keeps dropping, Ross, on a weekly basis. But to your point, not only does it take a while for guys to get back to full speed, like just because they're back healthy enough to play doesn't necessarily mean they're healthy enough to be the guy that we expect them to be. And that's difficult, but it's becoming... Now we're in the halfway point of the fantasy season, right? It's becoming much more difficult for patience.

So if you're a team that has been waiting on A.J. Brown, you still haven't been able to get a return, I understand trying to unload him. But if you're somebody at the top of the standings that you know you're a playoff team, I can understand making that deal for him. Look, when he got hurt, I made a trade in one of my leagues. I traded... A.J. Brown and got Ted Arroyo-McMillan because I thought that would just be a guy that would help me for the next few weeks. And you know what? I'm glad that I did. But if he asked me, like, who would I rather have for the last stretch of the season? I might want to invert that trade potentially, especially with the way Drake Mays been playing. So it's something to at least think about.

All right, let's move on to the international game in Paris this week, which started off slow, then picked up Stephen in the second quarter. Second quarter was kind of fun. Like, OK, everyone's waking up. Jet lag is getting dusted off to the side. We got a football game. And then I was wrong because of the second half. It was completely boring, and it was that typical Steelers game where they just drag everything down to that level. But that's fine. It is what it is. But let's talk about Jalen Warren and Rico Dowdle, because Warren was, again, spectacular. 18 for 101 for him. He also caught three receptions for 36 yards.

Rico Dowdle had six catches for 45 and nine for 41 on the ground. And Dowdle was surprisingly, I think, fresh in the second half too, which was good to see because going up into this week, we were a little worried about his health. So talk to me about the usage of these two running backs here with the Pittsburgh Steelers, not just this week, but maybe going forward.

I mean, are they both viable starts in this package together?

Yeah, so we now have two games to diagnose the Jalen Warren, Rico Dottel split with Rico back in the mix. In this one against the Saints, it was Jalen Warren, 62% of snaps, Rico, 44%. Touches were Jalen Warren, 21, Rico, 15. I think this is good.

This is fine.

Jalen Warren, around 20 touches a game is what we want. So 16 and 21 touches for Warren over the last two weeks with a healthy Rico. Obviously, you don't really want Jalen Warren as your fantasy team's RB1 week in and week out. But he's like a weekly RB2. There's nothing wrong with that. This was like 93% snap share for Jalen Warren when Rico was out previous to that.

In the first two weeks, it was like 57%. So I think we're going to hover kind of right around that 65% mark for Jalen Warren. And again, with how efficient that he's been, how incredible he's looked with the ball, I think this is fine. I think having Jalen Warren as your team's RB2 or RB3, I think I would ride it out. Really interesting receiving production from Rico. I think that actually might be something that is a little sticky sometimes. playing with Aaron Rodgers because we just know like right now with the way that Aaron Rodgers is playing football, he's a guy that wants to get it out quickly and safely. And like Rico Daddle kind of coming into this week really had no like receiving profile

at all. So I kind of do think that if that split sticks around that 65%, 35%, 40% for Rico and Jalen Warren, I think Rico is an okay, maybe kind of matchup dependent flex play. I certainly wouldn't be excited about starting Rico Daddle as like my RB2 or RB3. It's definitely more of the kind of the Jalen Warren territory there.

Okay. Let's talk about the Saints on the other side of this game. They fall to two and five. They are now on a bye this week. How do they fix what ails them when they come out of the bye to stay relevant in this division?

Well, they're like broken on the ground right now. Saints running backs, which was Alvin Kamara and Kendra Miller. They combined for 14 carries and 11 yards. So tough matchup against the Steelers.

Certainly. Travis A.

Chan is eligible to come off IR next week, but the Saints are on by obviously. So the earliest we could see him is, is in week nine against the Browns. Um, I think he's kind of interesting just to, I think the talent's okay with Travis HN and you just kind of inject him back into a team that like can't.

Run the ball.

Um, I think that's fine. I also think we could see Jordan Tyson for the first time this season in week nine. Uh, so if he's out there on waiver wires, I know a savvy move is potentially to stash them on your IR. I have him stashed on my IR in a couple leagues, and I'm kind of just waiting for him to be activated. I think he could be viable.

I really do.

Tyler Schuch has 300 dropbacks.

So far this year.

It's the second most in the NFL. This is a team that wants to pass. And again, kind of like what I mentioned, the running game for the Saints has been completely broken. Devon Valle has been very viable in that Saints wide receiver two role as well. So I think we could see something here from Jordan Tyson. If he's out on your waiver wire, go pick him up.

and stash him, if you have him on your IR, I think I'd actually be pretty excited about the opportunity for Jordan Tyson. I can only talk about Steelers and Saints so much.

So what do you say?

Let's get into some more interesting stuff.

Oh, yes. By all means. I mean, look, you're never boring, but there's only so much to take away from that game because the second half of that game was not fun. I mean, it's fun if you like grinding... you know, running back football, which I mean, part of me does, you know, I do love the Jalen Warren. The Rico dad was good to see Dowdle healthy. That was the thing to me. I was a little concerned about him, but let's go to the usage report, which you talk about every single week here on the program. So the things that stood out to you, as you look back on what's happening, I know we're gonna talk about the giants backfield, but let's start with the Texans wide receiver core too, because that room's getting real crowded last couple

of weeks. There's a lot of bodies there.

So tank Dell active for the first time in like 600 something days, Really cool to see. I'm a Tank Dell fan. Devastating injuries. I think it's really cool to see him out there. So Tank Dell's active. They acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. ahead of Week 6. The Texans had six different wide receivers run at least one route in this game. So Nico Collins, 23. Jalen Null, 15. Xavier Hutchinson, 13.

Kayshawn Booty, 11, who they traded for. Marvin Harrison Jr., 8, who they traded for in Tank Dell. So Tank Dell actually led that wide receiver group in receiving yards with 43 yards. It was kind of on a fluky play that was a pass where I actually don't even think he was the targeted wide receiver. So there's like a revolving door of wide receivers going on in Houston right now.

The red flag here for me is that now over the last two games with basically all six of these guys tanked out active for the first time this week. But with all this going on in Houston, Nico Collins has just a 16.7% target share. That was 26% when he played in weeks one, four, and five. Um, I think maybe the stance that I have on Nico is I would be okay selling. Um, I go back and forth a little bit between like, this is a guy that we've seen in the past be able to dominate targets, but there's just so much going on in Houston. I think they've been an incredibly fantasy friendly game environments. Uh, I feel like if somebody was interested in buying Nico at kind of like a wide receiver, one price that

I would be okay with, with selling Nico, if you need help at running back selling Nico for somebody around his value. I think that's a move that I potentially make. I kind of see this as a red flag with all the moves that the Texans have made.

I get it. I think it's more insurance for the future than it is for right now. I think they come out of the buy and they go right back to Nico Collins, especially because that run game is suspect all season. So I'm on the other point of view where I think there's a window here where you have a couple bad Nico games and they go, what are we doing? We got to get more targets to Nico.

We got to figure things out. It's great that Marvin Harrison's here. It's great to tank Dallas healthy again. Cool. Let that help Nico, not the other way around. What about the Giants backfield? I know last week you and I talked about on our show, we had a lengthy discussion about, look, you can't sell off Cam Scadaboo at his lowest cost. So the best thing you can do is hold him, probably start him this week because only one or two things are going to happen. It's either going to be spectacular and he's going to get the message that's been sent to him the hard way by the Harbaugh, or it's going to go completely south and flame out and you can see Devin Singletary and the next week is going to be a trade. Well, it

was certainly a good day for Cam Scadaboo, a huge win on the road for them against the Texans. And now they get a week off to rest, which is good because it did look like at the end, he kind of tweaked his hammy or something there at the end. We're still waiting for some more updates on that. But talk to me about what the Giants' backfield looked like last week compared to Week 6, where things were just pretty ugly there.

Yeah, really, really bizarre situation here. In Week 6, Cam Scadaboo played six snaps. That was 8.3% of the Giants' team offensive snaps. Did not touch a ball, or did not touch the ball in that game. And then, again, a weird week leading up to it. Then the Giants cut Najee Harris after that Week 6 game where Cam Scadaboo didn't touch the ball. And then in week seven, Scadaboo plays 55% of snaps. He out-touches Devin Singletary 18-8.

He out-touches Teron Tracy 18-7. It appears he's back in the driver's seat. The Giants do have a week eight bye. So the question I kind of have for you that we can talk about is like, do we trust the workload going forward? Did he win this job back over in a week? Is there still risk with him? Because it sounds like that punishment in week six where he did not touch the ball and played six snaps was because of a fumble. If he fumbles again, if Cam Scadaboo fumbles again, then what?

Is he on the hot seat?

What's your take? Do you feel comfortable with the Cam Scadaboo situation? I'm personally, quite frankly, I'm not entirely sure. The coaching staff, keep in mind too, this is entirely new coaching staff. They inherited Cam Scadaboo. That's kind of where I get a little hesitation. He's not necessarily their guy, and I question whether he's kind of the guy for Harbaugh.

He looked great here. And I would say moving forward, he definitely has earned that role. But like, how short of a leash is it?

It's a great question. I think, and this is like the NFL wannabe head coach in my brain. You're playing with house money right now, right? You lost your star quarterback already. All the expectations have faded away whenever you had that. If you can be relevant, stay in this, win the division. I think the last thing you want to do is move draft capital. for a running back, even if it is Jonathan Taylor. Like, I don't think that's what you want to do. You want to sign one in free agency, that's fine. You want to draft the next one, that's fine. But to move draft picks in season for another running back, to me, that just doesn't make sense in the model of the NFL and the way we value running backs. So therefore, I think

you land on the, it's got to be Cam Scadaboo. And I don't think it's just him. I think you will see Tracy get some carries from time to time to take off that workload. Same with Singletary. I think the mix that they had clearly is the mix that they want. And I think, look, Cam Scadaboo, He's, he's entertaining, right? We, if you watch him in Arizona, you loved him in college.

He's an entertaining guy. He's fun to watch, but it does seem like he's done a lot of off season stuff, a lot of commercials, a lot of things, a lot of things, you know, stop doing backflips every time you score, that would be nice. But like, there's a maturity level. I think that Harbaugh is trying to get out of him.

I don't know if he's going to get there this year, but to me, it's all house money. McCarthy looked very good in that game. I think Scadaboo is the guy. And I think the buy low window is probably shut on him. And then there's the Vikings backfield, which is another one that's kind of in motion. Jordan Mason, you know, I mean, how many shows have we done together? You and I, where I talked about buying Jordan Mason, like just get ahead of this, get ahead of this. It's not a foot issue. It's not an issue. It's a thumb.

He's going to be fine. He came back. He was fine. And then we talked about the usage of Aaron Jones for five weeks with almost 97 attempts going into this week. possibly breaking down. And what do you know? Starts to break down. We had the knee issue. He's getting the MRI, but I think Jordan Mason's one of the most valuable assets you can have right now going forward. Yeah.

So, so that MRI too on Aaron Jones came back. He's, he's considered day to day. He left late in the, in the fourth quarter here in this game, Jordan Mason played 63% of snaps. He handled 15 of 23 running back carries. I think that Jordan Mason fits what the Vikings want to do and kind of what we've seen from them of like This is a team with an elite defense that will be playing from ahead a ton.

Jordan Mason is a grinder. He's a physical runner. I think he has a pretty clear path to 15 to 20 carries per game. I feel like that's what you're going to get. The upcoming schedule too, Lions, Bills, Packers, the next three games, I think these are all great matchups on the ground. I do think too that these are all offenses that could maybe sort of push the Vikings a little bit and we could see a little bit more of like a friendly fantasy environment. for the Vikings were like, they need to score points and keep up.

So yeah, I I'm, I'm absolutely in on Jordan Mason.

I have been beating the drum, as you know, for the last week and a half for everybody to add Jonah Coleman, because I felt like I just looked on sleeper and I saw in some other places on ESPN where he's like 70, 80% available. And I'm thinking to myself, I get it because people had roster crunches, not every you know, situation where the league has IR spots, you can't hold guys, especially during bye weeks, things get tricky.

Your team has injuries. I understand. But to me, the way out for the Broncos is to have a dynamic running game. That's how they were good last year. That's how they were, you know, Sean Payton teams have run in the past where you had, you know, the Alvin Kamara role in the Mark Ingram role. And to me, Jonah Coleman is clearly at this stage of his career, just far better He had almost six yards per carry yesterday.

I'm glad he didn't score a touchdown because that might suppress his value a little bit more in free agent budgets this week. But like I said, I've been beating this drum for Jonah Coleman for the last two weeks. He was still going into Sunday. basically 80% available. I don't think that's going to be the case this week.

I think he's the guy going forward and I think it could be a league winner going forward too. What do you think?

Yeah.

I want to put in the, his usage in this week into context too, because he had not played since week two. Dude, Andrew, keep in mind, this is a rookie, a fourth round pick at the NFL draft and on a now five and two team, his first game back in four or he out snaps RJ Harvey, 28 to 14 out snaps. JK Dobbins, 28 to 12 leads the backfield with, it was only nine carries, but this was a weird game. Bo Nix had a 62 yard touchdown run.

RJ Harvey had a 52 yard touchdown reception. JK Dobbins scored the other touchdown on a one yard run. Those are all plays that hurt Jonah Coleman, and I totally agree with you. It was kind of keeping him under the radar and his price down. Plays like that don't happen every week. I think he's the guy to own in Denver for the rest of the season as well.

All right, let's turn the page, look ahead to Week 8. We've got the Texans, Saints, Giants, 49ers all on a buy, but there were some guys that popped off last week. Once again, just widely available in leagues everywhere that I feel like... they're still worth adding despite the fact they can't help you in week eight. Let's talk about some of those names still on the board.

Yeah, so Malachi Fields, Giants, right? Rookie, and this is where I think it's important. This is about time of the year where rookies can sort of get more ramped up and more involved, especially guys with decent draft capital. Important reminder that Malachi Fields was a third round pick in last year's NFL draft. That is really good draft capital.

He ran 20 routes in this game, saw five targets, was the second most on the Giants. catches four balls for 83 yards. So they're, they're headed into the bi-week. There's potential like chemistry, if you will, with JJ McCarthy too. This is a connection that's new. That's fresh that we haven't seen. He outproduced Isaiah likely here. So yeah, I think Malachi fields for one at wide receiver is a, is a very interesting stash headed into the, into the Giants bi-week.

Yeah, I agree with that. Kalen Black, another guy too, with the, you know, the age of Christian McCaffrey and the way we've been babying him all the way through trying to get to December, I think Kalen Black is going to continue to work more. And he looked really good, just like everybody does in that offense. I mean, it's very conducive. You mentioned Jordan Tyson earlier. I would even put Jordan Watkins into that conversation too with the 49ers.

I don't think Mike Evans is going to be back anytime soon. I do not think he is back from that Achilles. I talked to a doctor on a TV show that I host on Sundays and He was very much kind of on the, yeah, the longer they wake, the better they are. Because the last thing you want is a rupture or an issue with that Achilles. And I said, I agree. All right, looking ahead to week eight, too, you got Vikings at Lions, too. The Vikings rushing at over a 75% clip. I mean, it is just historically amazing to watch, entertaining if you like defense, and I do.

So talk to me about this matchup between these guys and where it might land us next week.

Yeah, so really interesting. Starting quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game against the Vikings defense. So you're still like, Going into this game, we're talking here on Monday. So we're talking start sits on Monday, which is a little aggressive.

That's okay. We're an aggressive show. We like to get out there in front of things. We like to do stuff. It's good.

So looking at this, so like CJ Stroud, Tyler Shuck, Brock Purdy, they're all on by. If you have Jared Goff, as I mentioned, 7.4 fantasy points per game is what the Vikings are surrendering to starting quarterbacks. Add to Jared Goff, who's currently the fantasy quarterback for has on his matchup. Is he benchable? There's other matchups out there that like just based on matchup, Jacoby Brissett versus the Cowboys. We know that can be a shootout. Tanner McKee versus the Commanders who have been horrible against the Commanders defense is surrendering fantasy points to quarterbacks left and right. Geno Smith against the Raiders defense and the Raiders have lost four in a row and they look completely different than they did.

Three weeks ago.

So how aggressive would you be in just playing based on matchups? Jared Goffigan, currently the fantasy quarterback for some interesting bye weeks too at quarterback that thins out the position. Would you be interested in benching Jared Goff? Personally, I'm kind of on the start your studs. If there's an offense that can overcome– I'm on the start your studs. Yeah.

I'm also in the bye Jared Goff business after this week because if he does have a bad game– The one that stands out to me is the 14 touchdowns and no picks for him right now. He's not turning the football over. That means fantasy points. That means the drives continue. That's all good stuff. And last year, look, it was a mixed bag. Last year, he had one really good game against the Vikings. That was in their own building. And then one game on the road, which was a little bit more tenuous. So obviously this one is in his own building. So I'm cautiously optimistic on this one still, because I think that that home, you know, indoor cat, Jared Goff and his schedule, by the way, everything coming up for Jared Goff going forward. At home

against Minnesota, then good weather in Miami, then at home against New England, Tampa, and Chicago, then on the road in Atlanta in a dome, Tennessee, good weather, and then at Minnesota, another dome, then home again for the Giants. It's not the week 17 where he has to go outside in a bad environment, potentially in Chicago. And it's against Chicago who gives up a ton of yards. So I'm like, I'm okay with it. If we get to the championship, I'm okay with buying Jared Goff everywhere. I'm okay with that one. But yeah, definitely don't sleep on the guys. I think they are on the waiver wire who can't help you this week just because they can't help you with this week. I think they can help you down the stretch. Even guys like Tank Dell out

there too in those deeper leagues just speculate on him. But I think Kalen Black, Jordan Tyson, Malachi Fields, just like last week, I wanted everyone to add Antonio Williams. Couldn't help you this week, but I think he can help you the rest of season. That's important. All right, let's end the show like we always do here. Buy, sell, hold.

Give me the biggest move that you want to make ahead of week eight.

So Joe, there is a wide receiver who was drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts this year. He is currently the PPR wide receiver 28. He has scored over 20 fantasy points just once this season. I think this creates a pretty nice buy low opportunity on him. So my biggest move to make ahead of week eight is by Justin Jefferson. Like I mentioned, the fantasy production has been incredibly disappointing, but the underlying uses metrics with them are still incredibly elite. Still same old Justin Jefferson. 33% target share in his healthy games this year. 47% air yard share. Those are both ranked second best in the NFL across the full season. I really like the upcoming schedule too. Lions, Bills, Packers, 49ers. Because those teams are

a combined 19-7. And kind of like what I mentioned with Jordan Mason, I think we might finally see the Vikings offense. They've scored 10 total touchdowns so far this season that the Vikings offense has. They haven't really had to have any juice offensively. I think those opponents are a much more competitive game for the Vikings. The Vikings have just been suffocating opponents. I think in those games, they need more from their offense that runs through Justin Jefferson.

So before week eight by low on the current wide receiver, 28, Justin Jefferson.

Also playoff schedule for him. Detroit, Washington, both at home, and then at the Jets week 17. So also some pretty good playoff matchups. All right, everybody, make sure you go check out chasethedata.com where Chase does all his incredible work with all the datas. And you can watch us more inside the numbers on YouTube on Fandom NFL. And of course, subscribe here to everything happening on NFL Fantasy.

That's going to do it for us. But the story of the game goes on. Have a great week eight, everybody. This has been Chasing the Data with Chase Daskalos and Joe Pisapia.

Week-7 Fantasy Debrief with Chace Daskalos

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