2026 Javelina Jundred Preview | Analysis, Storylines, Predictions

Welcome back or welcome to the Single Track Podcast. I'm your host, Finn Melanson, and this is our preview of the 2026 Havelin 100, the second golden ticket event ahead of the 2027 Western States 100, and in its own right, one of the premier Ultra Trail races on the North American continent. You can tune in to catch all of the action this coming Saturday on the Mountain Outpost YouTube channel where the race will be live streamed start to finish.

In this episode, I'm joined, as usual, by Brad Hornig and Leah Yingling to preview the action. As usual, we discuss contenders and storylines in the men's and women's fields and what it takes to be successful on this course. But we also have a little bit of fun talking retrospectively about five years covering this race and what we've learned in that time span.

Before we get started, though, thanks to Norda, the official footwear partner of the show, Norda makes my favorite trail running shoes in the game. If you were able to watch our short film on my fast pack of the Whites 100 in New Hampshire earlier this summer, you'll notice that I wore the 055 on days two, three, and four.

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Also, thanks to Precision Fuel and Hydration, the official nutrition partner of the show. You all know by now that I'm gearing up for the California International Marathon in about six weeks. Nutrition is absolutely a make or break component of having an ideal day out there. I've been using Precision's Fuel and Hydration Planner, which is totally free on their website to tinker with plans, especially as I've been training the gut during workouts and long runs to handle higher carb intakes.

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Similar to Norda making my favorite footwear, precision by far makes my favorite sports nutrition in the sport. Go check it out. Okay, before we get into our normal routine of the preview, for longtime listeners of the pod, this is our fifth consecutive year previewing Javelina. And I thought it would be fun to take a trip down memory lane and go over our, what I'm calling our all-time scorecard, 2022 to 25.

So I've got four, I've got four sort of columns here. I've got our track record on winners picked, like men and women, our podium hits, how many times we've uh correctly guessed those. And then I've also got like our what I believe are our signature best calls and our biggest or most interesting misses over the years.

So listeners and viewers are probably not going to be surprised to learn that in terms of total podium picks dating back to 22, Leah's got the best record out of all of us. Leah, you're you're 12 for 24, 50% hit rate on your podium picks.

Not bad.

That seems solid.

Especially considering like DNFs.

Exactly. And I don't really know what, and maybe we can debate this. I don't really know what a baseline rate is here. Like what are what's our benchmark? Like, what do we consider like a minimum viable, good? But I think 50% is pretty solid. I think so.

I mean, you think in theory, in the last five years, it's gotten, it should be getting harder to correctly get people on the podium because the quality of the depth of the field is getting to the point where you're like, you know, there's there's nine people that could get third. Yes.

I am next up, 42%, 10, 10 for 10, 10 for 24. And then, okay, I'll asterisk for Brett. Brett abstained from the men's picks in 23 because he was racing and didn't want to pick that year, but you're eight for 21. Okay, so we can just assume that I'd be 10. Yeah. But this is this is where it gets interesting.

So, Leah, you've picked two winners in the last uh four years. You picked John Ray in 23 and David Roche in 24. You've never picked a women's winner. I picked John Ray and Tara Dower in 25. So we're two, we're tied there. Brett, you picked Devin Yanko back in 22.

Okay. All right. I'm just glad I got one on the board. Okay. I was worried I was going to get skonked there in the winner department.

In terms of signature best calls, starting with Leah, Leah, you were the only person to have all three people on any given podium picked in a given year last year, or sorry, in 2023, you had Riley, Ragna, and Heather all on the podium. You just slightly you just slightly missed the order, but you had Riley, Ragna, Heather, which is really cool.

That's cool.

Brett, you were the only one to highlight the dark horse Chris Andrews in in 2025. He ended up finishing fourth. Really, really strong run. And then even though you didn't pick the winning times, I was going through the transcript and you did say that by the year 2025, this was going to be a 1230 course for the men, 1330 course for the women, which pretty which synced up pretty well.

All right, I'll take that. Okay. And then I have listed here for me, uh, I identified Blake Slattengren and Dan Green as the 2023 random ballers. They finished second and fourth. Cool. That's a solid, that's a solid uh solid pick there. Our biggest miss is here. I'll start with me. I had Roche off the podium in 2024.

And that's when I think David like sent us the memes after being like, how could you pick against he was just thinking about that the whole time. He was thinking about that the whole time. Brett, you had Stephen Kirsch winning in 24. And then Leah, you had Carla Molinero winning last year.

unknown Yeah.

So any thoughts there? Just in general.

That's act this is all better than I would have expected us to be. Like, I mean, I feel like I'm getting progressively worse at this each year. So hopefully this year I have some redemption. But yeah, I feel like I was doing really well with the picks a couple years ago, and I'm just maybe you guys are rubbing off on me and it's just bad now.

It's always hard to look back on things and try and identify how confident I felt in my picks. But even before you said this, I never felt less confident in my picks than this year. Like this this previous I I've got a lot of notes, and this was a this is a hard year to crack in my opinion. What makes it hard in your opinion?

Um so I would say on like but okay. Well, actually, no, the the first big variable is this potentially very interesting weather spell for next weekend that kind of throws a lot of what normally would be the best runners on this course. Like they could potentially be thrown out the way. So looking across a bunch of different weather sites, and you know, it can always change, but right now it's looking like there's rain in in amounts from a little to a lot between Friday and Sunday, and the temperatures are not hot.

So I was curious how much water would need to fall on the course for the course conditions to deteriorate significantly and say have sections that are long that are muddy, slippery, like not flowy and fast. Because, you know, we've talked about this every year. You're like, oh, road super shoes all the way.

Like, what if someone just gets totally effed for that? Or, you know, you get the more marathoner type runners where it's not so much uh a strength skill, but you know, the agility, the finesse, like the high cadence, and just kind of bop along the desert ground. Sloppy conditions is not gonna lend to that runner.

I think um we kind of saw that at Tarawera earlier this year when it rained like 35 feet over the course of the race. And uh some people ended up having much better days than other just because it then leaned into their kind of big diesel engine skill set. I would be really curious how these results would change if enough rain came down, especially because it's just a loop.

It's a, you know, five loops, and you have uh there's 830 people on the 100 miler, and then was it like 500 or so in the 100k? So that's so many people running on the same trail. I'm just curious how much water would need to come down for that to get wrecked.

How do you think this course would manage like hold the water?

So I texted Jamil and asked him what what what it might look like if an amount of rain came down. And he said the like then the higher part of the course towards Jackass Junction, you know, just being a little bit higher is gonna drain out a little bit better. So he said that you would need to see like a significant amount of rain for the whole course to get money, but it might just be on the lower sections, especially um like from the Havelina headquarters at the start towards that first aid station, which is Coyote camp.

That could be the muddy section, which that could kind of suck because a lot of times leaving the headquarters, if you're not feeling great, you know, leaving the the party, you get kind of the extra low before hopefully settling into a rhythm. If you leave and then all of a sudden the terrain just sucks.

Uh, it could really, I don't know, I could feel like it could really throw someone for a lap.

Two factors for me, and I'm just thinking back to, I mean, the the what's obvious and or top of mind for me is Twisted Fork earlier this year, we got absolutely demolished by sort of a freak rainstorm. And it really comes down to two factors. It's it's yes, the amount of total rainfall in a 24-hour period is important, but also whether or not it's dispersed fairly evenly across the day or if it's concentrated.

I'm seeing like, for example, the weather channel's predicting a half an inch of rain, which is quite a bit. Like I know for Twisted Fork, we got about four tenths of an inch, but it happened in or sorry, um we yeah, we got like 0.4, but it was in like a three-hour time span, like super concentrated.

Uh I'd be curious to know, like, is are the percent chances of rainfall are they like higher in the morning? Are they higher in the afternoon, the evening? Is it evenly dispersed? Because I think that'll also matter a ton. Like if it's more concentrated, I think things can deteriorate really fast, depending on this area.

And then it's like, even if it stops raining in the second half of the day, like there's just that like mud factor caking, people sidestepping the trail, not running through it, stuff like that.

Mm-hmm. Yeah. The other part of this race that kind of has me scratching my head a little bit for this year is there's a lot of really good runners entered, but there wasn't nearly as many people listed this year who I was confident would be like at the front, setting the tone, creating like a large lead pack than what we've seen in previous years.

So I think a lot of what could happen out there might come down to who the one or two people are that decide to take it from from the start.

I agree with that. I agree. And I feel like there's no just heavy hitter favorites like we've seen in some past years, even though we have not really predicted the winner many times correctly, like you stayed at the beginning of this episode, Finn. But yeah, I just not a ton of the the heavy star power, but I think there's a lot of extremely just solid people who I think are gonna put up um some really great results here.

Yeah, it might lead to some really good racing, you know, regardless of overall time or conditions. Um, because yeah, there's there's a lot of people that are all around. I guess I didn't look up like, you know, UTMB index or something, but I wouldn't be surprised if the bulk of these fields were all in like the same grouping.

One thing that I prompted you guys on ahead of this episode, uh, again, it's sort of a retrospective question, but what four years of previewing this race has taught us. Leah, like what do you feel like you've learned over the years about this race that you can apply to this year's preview?

Yeah, I feel like I'm already not even applying what I've learned to this year's preview as I'm just like thinking through my picks. But I think it's this course can be anyone's strength. I think it's really easy to focus on people who succeed at flat, fast courses to predict our favorites in these races for the podium and for golden tickets and for the win.

But I think people like Tara Dower, Hannah Allgood, Riley Brady, I mean, we've just seen people across the board be talented at a variety of races, distances, terrain, and like somebody like Canyon Woodward doubling back last year from UTMB to Havelena and having the race he did. I just think there's really no form of running that necessarily predicts your success at Havelena.

So as Brett always says, if you're good at ultrarunning, you're good at ultrarunning, or good at trail running, you're good at trail running. And I think that's never been more true just across the board in the sport.

Yeah, and kind of to piggyback off of that, what I was thinking as well was um, yeah, it didn't so much come down to the actual skill set in regard to like what like quote unquote event you're best at, but also, especially at Javelina, we've seen the runners who can just be steady and not screw anything up, have good races here.

Um, because I guess you know, even though this is a flat, fast course, I mean, pace-wise, this is probably the fastest average pace of a golden ticket race, maybe shy of Tarowera, um, even though it's a hundred miles. When you break down like one of the miles, it's not that fast. Like every single person can run a good handful of these miles at a course record pace.

And it really comes down to like just do the other like the other things. Um you you can't win this race off of fitness alone. And I think that's catered into some of the more experienced ultra runners who are just like, yeah, I'm just out here jogging for a long time and making sure to eat, drink, and never get hot.

And then all of a sudden that equals a very good race because yeah, the I mean the fitness is always there with most of this field. It just comes down to like steady execution.

One thing I was thinking about, I'd love to get your your thoughts here, both of you. Uh so 2024, like Roche is here, misses the course record by two minutes. It was a it was a strong overall field, too. And then the very next year, temps are in the mid-80s, and that that was like a it was like a high 90s, 100, 100 degree day.

Year later, temp's in the mid-80s. I would say like equally compelling field. Three people run well under the old course record. Do you feel do you guys feel like weather moves the times on this course more so than like the depth of field does?

Yes and no.

I think maybe.

Yeah.

unknown Maybe.

Um, weather, I think, was definitely the reason we saw such a drastic drop in performance, like improvement in performance. But I mean, we saw a lot of people racing each other in the last couple years. Or like, I mean, Tara Dauer, for instance, just racing herself and her mind and seeing what she did out there.

So no, I think it's I think it's a combo of both, but I would say weather definitely helps the most.

Yeah, if if they get lucky and like there's not that much moisture and say it's simply just not dusty and a little bit tacky, but it's overcast and the high is 68, yeah, then I I almost expect both the course records to fall no matter who's in the race. If we just have good weather and good dirt, like I don't care if there's not, you know, a David Roach in this field, I I still then would expect the course record to get broken.

Um the the slowdown on laps three and four is still pretty significant. And if there just isn't that slowdown, um yeah, I mean you could I'd have to look at the exact splits. Um Will Murray and Canyon Woodward were what, eight, eight minutes apart and first and third last year. And uh it was one of the first times where the last lap was like significantly faster than laps three or four.

A lot of times you see a couple minutes faster, or just a steady slowdown from lap one, like all the way to the end. But uh Will, and especially I think Canyon's last lap was the fastest lap lap of last lap of in the race history, and it was like 30 seconds a mile faster than lap four. Um but if you didn't have that hot weather lap three and four slowdown, you're all of a sudden gaining 20 minutes of time back.

If if like say the effort's the same, but that was purely just off of you know, the the weather limiting the pace and curbing the pace a little bit. Um gosh, then you're you're almost finishing without a headlamp. If you're running like 1140.

One little tidbit for me before we move on. I I did notice in just like the last three or four years of analysis that there's been some fun storylines where experience on like the second and the third try seems to pay off. Uh John Ray was second here in 22, wins the next year. Riley Brady second in 22, third in 23, they win in 24.

In this year's edition, Blake slot and ren returns, he was second in 23. Devin's back, she was the champion in 15 and 22, and then Raj is back. He was fourth in 24, and he also has the 100K course record. So I think that's interesting. I'll be curious to see, like, for example, with Blake and Raj in particular, if this is their year, if they if they feel like they're coming back with the missing pieces to get it done.

Yeah, it is interesting to uh if you look across top 10 performances, both men and women. Blake is the only person who has a result in the top 10 historic performances at this race that's returning this year.

In order for time.

For time, yes. So he's he's 10th on the list. Um on the women's side, though, we have um five of the top 10 performances are represented by people who are racing this year, which is pretty cool too.

Do you know where on the top 10 list he was in 23? Like how how much change there's been?

So there's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven people ahead of him on that list who are after twenty-three. Oh my god.

So he would have been like what fourth then?

Yeah. One thing so it would have been John Ray, Dakota, Dakota, and Blake. Yeah.

So 2023 Havelina fits into Ben Dieman's definition of the Stone Age.

Yeah, for sure.

Wow.

Which is crazy. That was three years ago. That was three years ago.

Oh my gosh. Just a few other notes from me. I I don't believe there's any course changes this year. Same 22.3 ish mile first loop, 1940, 19.45 for the final four. Same aid stations. Course records are 1210, Will Murray, 1331, Tara Dower. Um anything else from you guys before we get into the women's and men's fields?

I guess golden tickets. Um Havelina gives out two golden tickets, right?

Yep. Two each.

Two each. And they roll down to then, I'm assuming, five because it is not a super golden ticket race like some of the others. And I don't believe there's anybody in this race that's already in to Western states, like of the elites that we'll be talking about on this field.

I did not come across any returners who already have a Western States bib either. There's a lot of people, a good handful of people who raced Western states this year who now need a golden ticket to get back in. So they could be running Western states on repeat years. But nobody who's just doing it to do it, I guess.

Which is is that yeah, I feel like normally we have at least like one or two, and then we're talking about roll downs. So there would only be roll downs here if somebody said, I don't want to go to Western states.

Yeah. Yeah. And I I would find that hard to believe that you're just like lining up for Javelina this year, not with no intention of Western states. Um yeah, the other notes that I've written down that I've had just copied and pasted from my years of notes is just like this is a great live stream because of the loop nature of the course.

As a as a runner out there, it's a great course for knowing where your competitors are at pretty much all times because the the aid. Do get relatively close together. Um, you know, crew and well, your crew's all at one spot at the Havelina headquarters, and it's very easy to see how everyone's doing and uh kind of know the gaps there.

So, and and there's also many points on the course where you can see, you know, upwards of a couple miles ahead of you with some of the rollers. So if you remember what people are wearing, you could always uh check splits. Um other cool thing, was it yeah, 830 entrants, about 40% women, 60% men were the split for the fields this year, which that's pretty solid for for 100 mile.

Yeah. Are either of you gonna be there?

No, not this year.

This year, no. Yeah, I feel like yeah, these next few years are gonna be tough with I'm just like peak Halloween for for tiny children. Like, I'm actually going, I'm going trick-or-treating this year, yeah.

You know, actually that tent city would be a great place to go trick and trick-or-treating.

That would be really fun.

If if each crew bought into it, that would be pretty awesome if there was just like maybe after the uh the 31k race goes off or before it. There's just like going up and down the rows and doing trick-or-treating with the kids.

And you can just fuel your laps with whatever candy you get.

Well, I was thinking like, you know, like the kids, like Monty's over here with just like PF90s and his little plastic pumpkin. It's like, oh, powdered Benji's just like another lactate gel. Like, seriously, come on. Like bicarb, what's a ketone?

There were, I think I told you guys this story, but there was a year two or three years ago where Jules and I forgot to get candy for the house for Halloween, and all we had in our kitchen was just like old gels and ketone bottles and all that. So we just threw it into a bin and left it outside. And we were so embarrassed that when they knocked on the door, we wouldn't answer, and we just let them do the bowl, and we were like ducked underneath the windows, and the kids like, this house sucks.

I'm never coming back. So, anyways.

Do you guys get a lot of trick-or-treaters?

It it's kind of dependent on the other. There's actually where I'm starting to see more and more signs for the um, what's it called whenever all the parents go to a parking lot and they like put their trunk or treat. There's all this it's like, wow, huh? Okay. I mean, I guess don't knock it till you try it, but I'm I think I'm old school.

I stick to the neighborhoods.

Yeah, like you're actually knocking it and trying it. Yeah. Like that's the whole point. Leo, what about what about your guys' house?

Um, yeah, we're kind of Scrooge's and I feel like we've never actually been here to give out candy, but this year I think we will. We'll be around. Um, but yeah, we it's actually we usually put a bowl of candy out and it's always gone. So I think our neighborhood's pretty popular, but yeah, I think there's more popular neighborhoods for sure.

Yeah, ours is very we uh we have ne we have never had a single trick-or-treater in like the six years because we live up this it's like what one mile gains like 700 feet hill. And then there's like, you know, there's probably 15 houses on our road. So it's like, why why would anyone go in this neighborhood?

But so we've started going down to our friend's house down like closer to downtown Ashland, where that's just known now. Like that, like this is one of the main trick-or-treating spots, and they get like 50 kids. So we're just gonna go over there and hand out candy and stuff. That's nice.

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Let's start with this women's field. Uh Leah, do you have uh how are you approaching this? Are you doing, do you have, do you have buckets of runners? Like how are you analyzing this year's women's field?

Yeah, just they're they're pretty general categories and they've they jive similarly with what we've seen in the past. But um, with this year's field, it's definitely an eclectic mix of prior golden ticket winners, prior athletes who have had top 10 success at Western states, and then a contingent of people who are these just like consistent golden ticket chasers.

Um, and we also have three past um javelina women champions in this field. So Camille Heron, Devin Yanko, and Heather Jackson are Camille's racing, Havelina?

Yeah, I didn't know Camille was racing.

Guys, you gotta stay up with the times. Camille has changed her name. Her name is Camille. She's at the bottom of the entrance list as Camille, period. So get with it. One name. Camille is one name?

Like Mick Lovin'?

Yes.

Who do you think you are? Seal? That's the quote.

So we got change your picks because Camille will be out there, and she is in her Madonna era, and we will be seeing her on the start line. So three champ, three past champions, and like I mentioned a little bit ago, um, they hold they and um um others hold five of the top ten uh times here at Havelina.

So I think that is really interesting. I also think um we have a couple international women who will make this pretty interesting as well. Um and then another like very small subset category here is um women who like really didn't have the races that they wanted to have at Havelina last year, and includes people like Carla Molinero, uh Devin Yanko, and um I believe there's at least one other.

Oh yeah, Valerie Valerie Arsenal, who also had a DNF last year.

I have a category that I feel like it doesn't get categorized that often for a race preview, and that is Olympians.

Oh that's good. How many people fit into that category, Brett?

One. It was also uh it was either Olympians or um Boston Marathon champions.

That's good.

We got one, and that's pretty cool.

Yeah, that is oh man, it's that's really cool to see. Um so yeah, we'll have Des Linden line it up.

Yeah, and Des. Yeah, Des is I'm really curious to see how Des is because I feel like Des hasn't really like really laced them up for an Ultra yet. I mean, Des ran Black Canyon this year and it seemed more more social than anything. Um and then uh Marathon Desab, which looked hard, but it is not the same skill set as something like Javelina, looked more like a big, you know, difficult adventure.

Um yeah, I'm really curious. I mean, Des has posted a couple reels on Instagram of like some solid-looking training runs, but you know, I know that even for someone as you know decorated as Des, you can't, you know, you're not winning the race off of one solid long run. So I'd be really curious, you know, what the last 12 to 16 weeks has looked like and and and what what her approach is going to be like for this race.

Yeah, I feel like we've been talking about this nonstop for the last year, but we're seeing a lot of people be Strava Dark these days. But I do feel like with Havelina, there were a decent amount of people whose training we do have some insight into. But yeah, people like Heather Jackson, uh Camille Heron, Des Linden, we don't we're not really privy to any of the training that they're doing.

So a lot of this is just a a guess as to their current level of fitness, especially if they haven't uh raced recently.

Yeah. Yeah, and I I actually I was listening to their podcast, nobody asked us around like the Chicago Marathon, and she wasn't really talking about it. So I'm I'm genuinely curious to know like, is this like sort of like an experimental year? Is it have fun and maybe get more beta on the sport in this distance, or are we gonna see her like up there?

And will it be like will it be more like what we saw from Molly Sidel at Black Canyon earlier this year, or will it be just like an exploratory mission?

Yeah. I will say like I had really high expectations for Des's performance at the Black Canyon 50K this year. And not that I was disappointed in how her day turned out, but I was I was truly expecting her to be like racing from the front. So I'm curious to see if we get a little bit more of that uh competitive ultra mindset applied to Havelina.

Mm-hmm. Yeah. I would I'll say I was disappointed. I mean, I just I just you know, then you talked about like I wasn't I wasn't mad.

I was just disappointed.

You know, you talk about it as like a uh like a fact-finding mission of like, what are we gonna learn about the race? I don't know how much there is to learn by running really conservatively when you are that caliber of athlete. I think there's more to learn, like in Molly's case at Black Canyon, by just sending it and seeing what kind of problems you run into.

Because if you run a conservative race and you just like lay down a nice foundation and run into no problems, that very rarely ends up being how you win a race or get a golden ticket. You know, when you hear the post-race interviews, there's always like, oh, I was right on the edge and like something blew up midway through and I had to do this and this.

And there's always some sort of like weird problem solving while you're right on the line. And I think, you know, by just kind of throwing yourself into the deep end of some of these races, that's how you're gonna really learn about what you can do to, you know, succeed next time, or even there's enough, I mean, there's still enough time at Havelin.

Like Des could totally make a massive mistake on lap two or three, course correct it, and then run up on the field. Molly kind of did that at Black Canyon.

Yeah. And I mean, if last year's race will indicate anything with this year's race, we saw Tara Dower win by exactly an hour. That's substantial. And I'm not saying that will happen again this year necessarily, but in the women's field, it just shows that like there could be some room for error there and other people can really move up the ranks.

And the golden ticket rolled down. I mean, to Addy Bracey, who ran an hour 15 behind first place last year. So if we're even talking golden ticket hunt here, I think it anything can really happen.

But the women's historical top 10 here is so fascinating to me. Like that Addy Bracey time is eighth fastest ever. And also, I mean, this would be a great stat for Travis Longkar or AidStation Fireball to explore. But I'm looking at, and thank you, by the way, Leah, for saving us on Camille. I never would have found that.

She's actually she's listed on fantasy free show as well, but like way down, and it's just Camille, period. It's run Camille on Ultra Sign Up. And if you look at her time from 21, I know, right? It's insane. But I I the stat here that I would love to learn more about is of all of the golden ticket races, the the modern golden ticket races, um, how many other events have had a time from like the early 2020s still hold in the top three?

Like Camille's 2021 Havelinia time is still the second fastest ever here. Like I think I mean, maybe it would be like Petter Engdahl at CCC, that's a similar, like long-standing one. But I'm pretty sure Canyons has been kind of blown up. Black Canyon's definitely been blown up. Um just it's do you guys have any explanation for why like there's been like this just like sealing for a bit on women's times here?

Because it feels like 15 hours, like 1430 to 15 hours.

Feels like it should go way into the 13s.

I think it should. I have no explanation as to why it hasn't. Um, I think Tara Dower's performance last year likely unlocked a door that a lot more people will be knocking at this year, I think. Just because I think she she showed that it's it's possible. And so perhaps these were times that people thought of like 14 hours as this barrier that was just untouchable.

But I think Tara, by breaking that by 35 minutes, proved that, yeah, it's quite doable.

Yeah, because when Camille set that course record, that was like right in the middle of Camille's tear of wrecking everything, like just every world record, like course record, like just getting destroyed. And it made Camille's times like appear very untouchable. And it definitely has taken a very similar amount of times for people to come back, could like get to that level on the roads, um, as well as the trail.

And yeah, kind of Leah, to your point, yeah, maybe it does just take like one Terra to open the floodgates for like, oh yeah, breaking 14 hours, like that's an expectation. No, that's not a a rarity.

Totally. And it's just like a podium expectation.

Uh I mean, I guess similar to Des, maybe there are question marks from here just because like, you know, Camille's not on Strava. I haven't seen a ton of updates for her for Javelina, specifically on Instagram. Like, what is a reasonable expectation? Like, do we do we expect her to be competing up front at all race, at least early?

Like, what's is she her 2021 self? Will she compete for terrorist time? I mean, this is this is a course that's historically within her skill set. Like this is a Camille event, right?

Yeah, and I don't think we've really seen Camille line up against a competitively deep field in like a minute. And yeah, I I don't think we'll see her be close to her 2021 time, if I'm being completely honest. I think there's a uh uh several women that will be close to that time, and I don't think Camille will be one of them.

Yeah, I would I would be surprised because it just wouldn't it wouldn't be representative of her last few years of results. I mean, I guess there's there's always the chance that the result is in there, but like if we're just looking at last couple years of results, it it yeah, it doesn't lead me to be really confident that we're gonna see like a 14-hour performance.

But I I wouldn't be surprised if Camille was right there at the front or leading from the get-go, because that's just how Camille races. And if you want a chance to win these races, you gotta, you know, put yourself in the thick of it for as long as possible.

This is a really entertaining women's field to me. I know maybe like like the and there are past winners here, but maybe it's like, okay, we don't have like the Ruth, the Courtons, the Katie's, the Jens, but uh like this is this is entertaining. Like I love seeing Dez on here. I love seeing Camille on here.

Like I think that these women are gonna make it interesting all day. Like this is cool to me.

Yeah, I think so too. And um, I talked a little bit about my categories, but I guess I'll list some of the people in them. But from our um prior Western states success list, these are women who have been in the top 10 at Western states um in the past seven years. Um so it's Katie Asmuth, Devin Yanko, Heather Jackson, Camille Heron, and Addie Bracie.

And Devin Yanko has the highest position of at Western States, which was a third place finish. Oh no, that back in 2016. Um so I guess that spans 10 years. And then uh a lot of previous golden ticket win earners, and that includes similar to Brett was saying, um, people who even ran Western States this year who seem to want to get back there if they didn't get their top 10 position.

Um, those two people include Addie Bracey and Elony Matarisi, um, other people who have gotten golden tickets before, Kate Yasmeth, Heather Jackson, Devin Yanko, Camille Heron, and then Eo uh Wang, who had uh probably got a golden ticket, you know, well over 10 years ago now, too.

Mm-hmm. Yep. Yeah, our our categories are pretty similar. I I have like aside from Olympians, veterans who are not new to the scene. Um, which was like, yeah, your Devin, Katie, Addy, Heather, and then I had Yo Wang in there, even though the other four have all had top ten performances at Western States, and Yo has not.

But uh I was looking at Yo Wang's Strava. She looks like she might be fit.

Yeah.

Like she's had some good, good weeks. Um the last big long run was it was a 26 miler with three by 30 minutes at 645 pace. Um, and that just like kept rolling into a couple more solid weeks of training. Um and yeah, that I was like, okay, well that's that's pretty good. And and you know, I've been trying to do a better job of not just like pinpointing one particular run, but like trying to eyeball the average of, you know, 10 to 12 weeks.

And yeah, I mean, we're looking like in that 80 to 100 mile a week range of pretty consistent running. And I think, you know, steady training oftentimes leads to steady racing, and steady racing is a key to success at Havelena. Um a note that I had written down for Heather, because there was a, you know, she doesn't put a lot on Strava, and Heather's always very multifaceted in terms of running, cycling events, big adventures, and it seems like she I mean, I guess we say this if we're like, man, Heather really went to the well a lot of times this year.

And then we just like repeat that quote for the next year and the next year, and it's like, it really seems like Heather's gone to the well a lot this year. Um but when Heather won Havelina in 2023, her tune-up race was the Three Sisters Skyline 50K. Um, I believe that's in September. And the year she won in Havelena, she won that 50K.

And this year she did that same 50K, also won it, and was maybe 10 or 12 minutes slower than her time in 2023, but chalking it up to a win's a win. So the same like tune-up race and successful tune-up race has happened already. So that gives me hope that Heather's ready to rip one at next week at Havelina.

I feel like that's a good indication. It's it's always hard to know what Heather's doing if she's not racing and putting up results. So it's nice to see that there's like a recent race that we could reference with a historical result as well.

Mm-hmm. Yeah, absolutely.

Is there um so I actually think the group that excites me the most at Havelena is the group that I haven't really discussed, which is kind of like the others, the others who aren't really in that Western states or golden ticket um recipients in the past. But for this race, it includes people like Jade Bellsberg, um, Carla Molinero, uh Juliet Soule, and um, I think Anna McKenna too.

We've talked about Anna McKenna historically across these golden ticket races as kind of having the most close calls and never getting the golden ticket itself. Um, but I think on that list that I mentioned, uh I'm really excited to see Carla Molinero's kind of come back from last year. She was running like with Tara Dower um in on loop one and even like I think parts of loop two.

And I think she DNF'd right around the 100K mark.

Is an injury?

I I think so. Um, or maybe just suffering.

Yeah, I couldn't remember if it was like an actual injury or like just a blow up due to yeah.

I think I if I remember correctly, I think it was more suffering, perhaps with a side of injury. But she went for it, and I do think that race experience was really valuable for her. And I mean, we've seen her have success at like comrades being in the top 10 there multiple times, two oceans, kind of known for her.

Oh, she's been a 50k world champion. Um, she's like known for her results on the road, but I I do think, of course, like Havelina does suit her quite well. And she's kind of committed to this like multi-year journey to make her way to Western states. And I'm excited to see her kind of apply what she learned last year because I actually don't think she will race any differently.

The only reason I think she will race differently is if the conditions uh kind of hinder her success in some ways. But she's somebody I'm really excited to see. And then um, Jade Bellsberg, who just rips across all the distances, looking at her Strava, like this has been the highest volume training I've ever seen out of her.

And we have

Know why.

Did she switch coaches?

Jack Kensel.

Oh, really? Yeah. Oh, that's interesting. I was I looked at it and I was like, this just doesn't feel like Megan Roach training.

Yeah. Uh new coach. That's cool. Sounds like, yeah. With just like switch things up, try something new. Um, you know, it you know, it's a you know that like like we're we're going. I mean, not that she hasn't been going for it, but it's like you go for it in a slightly different, different avenue. Um, and sometimes it's not even that the old training wasn't good.

Um sometimes like athletes benefit from switching coaches and just having a different stimulus and a different approach to things. So um yeah, I thought I thought that was a a cool changeup as well and excited to see.

Yeah, another one I'm really interested in too is Juliet Sowell. So she's from New Zealand, I believe. And uh she was a kind of near miss a Taraware Golden Tickets, um, two years. And, you know, we see really like hefty training for UTMB, Western states, things like that. So it's like when you see a five-hour, six-hour run for UTMB, you're just like, okay, everybody's doing it.

And a lot of people are doing like four or five hour runs for Javelina. But I think it's just like the pure number that you see on the screen on Strava that's associated with these like five and six hour runs for Javelina that just break my brain. So Joliet, I think, did like a back-to-back, like six hour and five-hour run, which resulted in being like pretty much like two 40-ish mile runs on like a Saturday and Sunday on the Havelena course, which just bores me out of my mind.

But I'm impressed. And I think we're seeing a few more people have that style of training, like these hefty numbers of back-to-backs um applied to the Havelena course. And it's just it's mind-blowing to see how far you can run whenever you're not running up mountains.

Yeah, I was yeah, that damn. So is she the um like the volume, the strava volume champion of of this group from what you've been able to sleep out?

Sydney Park takes the case.

Oh, you're right. Yeah, I had her written down as well. I just wrote runs a lot.

And also was a part of that Nike program this year where they were doing, I think she was in Portland, Oregon for I think the whole summer, and they were basically running all sorts of uh tests on her and testing product, etc. for I believe like the ACG team, like like Caleb, et cetera. So uh really interesting.

Um has I and I think Sydney's also run, has she run Javelina?

I think she has. I think she had like a 19 19-hour finish or something along those lines.

Two years ago, 1942. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay.

Yeah, I actually don't think like any of the women are going absolutely bonkers in their training. Like Carla Molinero is kind of 100 to 110 miles a week. Um Devon Yanko, I think, is pretty similar. And I know she's coached by Mario Freoli, um, but then has also been like applying some of her own just like coaching principles along the way for the last year just to try kind of like a different stimulus, I believe.

But she's somebody I'm actually I'm really excited to see as well because like she has proven success at this race. I feel like she's been really energized by her training lately. Um, just came off a really solid road marathon at the St. George Marathon, um, running, I mean, Devin's run under three hours in the marathon like so many times.

It's absolutely wild at this point. But she ran Taraware a hundred miler this year, which had disgusting weather, just mud fest all day long. And Devin won that race, just being really resilient through those conditions. So when we talked about how the weather could affair at Havelina, the first thing that came to mind was like Devin has experience gutting out a hard 100-mile finish in conditions like these just this past year.

I think Devin, the way Devin won these races. I'm trying to remember what the 2015 one was like, but 2022, I don't it wasn't like her best race, right? Like I don't think she won for like from the gun.

I thought that was a comfort behind victory or I believe it was I believe wasn't Riley out front.

I thought so. Um it's like yeah, I Devon's had some races where like things like look to or appear to be unraveling in the middle and like Devin's come back to life before Devin's one race is leading just from the gun. Um so uh yeah, you can't really count Devin out ever.

I remember now, because uh Brett, that was the year you took, was it fourth, 22? Yeah. Okay, that was the year it was Heather Jackson's like intro to trail running. And she and Heather just went for it. Uh yeah, she went out, I think, at like I don't want to say it was like men's course record pace, but she was.

It was because she was ahead of me. That's right. Okay. Yeah, so Heather, Heather like blew the door off everything and like strung out the women's field. And I think at some point, yeah, I don't know if I don't know if Riley or Nicole Bitter were in front of Devin, but I do believe for Devin, yeah, it was a come from behind, especially with Heather.

But I don't know, I can't remember the rest of the how it struck out in like the third and fourth laps.

Wow.

Eddie Bracie's training has looked great for this race. Um yeah, just like yeah, there wasn't any, you know, single long run. There was like a back-to-back 50k like race sorted weekend that looked that looked solid. Um it didn't look too javelina specific, but it just looked like big, big time on feed training days.

Um, but that was like amidst a string of like 1,200 mile weeks. So it was like, yeah, that's that is solid.

Yeah, Addy just had a really solid day at Havelena last year. It's just seemed like that was a confidence-inducing race for her. Uh just had a 100 miler go very well. And I feel like Addie was kind of searching for that for uh several years. And Addy finished 20th at Western States this year in just over 19 hours.

So I'd imagine uh she wants to knock that time down quite a bit because I think if her current training's any indication, like, yeah, she's not finished with Western States, and I think she could actually go considerably faster here at Havelena.

Is Anna McKenna gonna get a golden ticket here?

Man.

I've got Rin down here possibly possibly the most golden ticket attempts of any woman in this field.

Yes.

Yeah, that's a lot.

Because I think Devon is the most, the highest golden ticket recipient.

Yi O Wang has quite a few as well.

Yeah.

A lot of a lot of GT turndowns.

Yes.

Umna McKenna's done six golden ticket races, I think, since 2023. Oh. At least fin I actually didn't look if there was any DNFs, but that was just that was finishes, and like there was a lot of fourths.

Yeah.

Um it's like right there. But um Javelina is not one of them for golden ticket races. So I think it's a good one.

This is Anna's first hundred miler, too.

Yeah, that was my question mark, was yeah, is this a hundred mile debut? It is. Okay.

First hundred miler, but uh a couple hundred Ks where you know she's been in that nine to ten hour range. Of all the hundred milers to transition into, I think just the time difference. It's for sure, yeah. It almost splits the difference a little bit, which is nice.

She's she's raced well in Arizona.

Leah, your picks. Picks times How many we go in here? Let's go three deep. Let's go podiums. Podiums and golden tickets if if they if it does need to roll down.

Okay. All right. We got. I actually haven't written these down, so I'm just looking at my names here and going off of what I feel. Um, I think Devin Yanko will be third, second place Heather Jackson, first place Jade Bellsberg.

Winning time.

Winning time. Oh, I think we'll go 1345.

Okay, I gotta go next because Leah, mine are written down. They've been written down this whole time. We can check the Google Docs times. I have the exact same podium written down. Are you serious? Devin Yanko, Heather Jackson, Jade Bellsberg for the win. My winning time was 1350.

unknown Okay.

So I'm either getting smarter or you're getting dumber.

I think I'm getting dumber, like I said.

Oh man, I hope I'm getting smarter. I feel a lot better about my picks now.

Was there anybody you were on the fence with in your picks, Brett?

My fourth was Anna McKenna.

Okay, because I really wanted to put Carla Molanero in there. I really liked how she raced last year here. And I think she could nail it racing that exact same way. Um, but I do think the conditions, um, yeah, I just think that's a variable that I'm kind of concerned about.

And yeah, I don't have I don't have Des Linden on my podium. I know the like this like the Des ceiling is absolutely there to win this race, but I just don't know if it's gonna happen this year. Like I there would just need I don't know, I just feel like there'd be there'd need to be too many new things that all go correctly.

Um, you know, I guess the if we get to subtract the variable of heat, that does help because that's one less thing to really think about. Um But yeah, I don't know. I mean, even though it's a fast hundred miler, it's still a hundred miles, it's still pretty far.

Yeah, I agree. I do think this is unrelated to Des, but related to my Jade pick. I have Jade winning, but I'm not entirely like confident in that pick, but I think it could happen. Um, Jade has run 100 miles several times, and I would actually say across the board, it probably is her weakest distance.

Um, I'm excited to see her kind of apply all the speed she's kind of ramped herself up like into in the last couple years and apply it to a fast course like this because she's exceptionally fast. I think her strongest distances are like around the 50K, 50 miles. I mean, honestly, she's crushed with Golden Trail stuff too, um, but probably like 50K.

And I think the last time we saw her lineup at 100 miles was 2022. And we haven't just seen like an exceptional performance there. So I do think the amount of time that Havelina takes could fare in Jade's favor because it it doesn't take really long. And I think her training is uh pretty conducive to fast time here.

Yeah, and I I feel like she's got to be racing with the chip on her shoulder right now, um, being a free agent in the contract sponsor world.

I think so.

I was about to do my picks, but then I realized that I have a a fairly scary stat to relay ahead of time. And that is the fact that when all three of us agree on a pick, we should be suspicious because we are historically zero for two on unanimous winner picks. We were all three of us said Riley in 2023, and all three of us said David Roche in 2025.

Dang it. Did you say Jade this year?

I did say Jade.

So Okay, so Jade's gonna break that um I don't know, curse.

unknown I don't know.

Yeah, I do I I I kind of agree with Leah. Like there's there are some things to be concerned about. She hasn't she has run hundreds, but it's been almost ten years since she's run one. And not this type of hundred either. It's been like the Cascade Crests, the Orcas Islands, like just near enough to 122 or 23.

Oh, okay, okay, sorry. Well, finished at least.

Yeah.

Um she ran Angelus Crest in 2022. So she's had some.

Okay. So I guess that too. I was looking back at like 20, yeah, like late 2010s. So maybe just a little bit of a concern there for me, but I think yeah, I think Jade is really strong. I think the pro the the training um will pay out. Uh no number two here, I've got Elanie Matarisi. And number three, I've got Katie Asmuth.

I think you know Katie's the defending 100k champion here. She was fifth at Tarawira back in February. And I think she's hungry for a golden ticket. I think she wants to get back into Western States.

Yeah, I think this course suits Katie quite well too. I think she's a runner, an ultra-runner that really likes to run. And she will run every single step of Havelena. And I think she gained a lot of strength in her UTMB block this year and just racing UTMB in itself. But I know that left her like hungry for actually like getting a lot out of herself.

And I think Havelena is just the style of race that she can do that at.

Seems like Ellen, Katie, Heather Jackson, Devin Yanko all are in that similar vein of liking the courses where you can run the whole thing.

And I, yeah, this was I was really it was tough for me to make these picks because I I agree with everything you all have said about Devin. Heather's a total gamer, wouldn't shock me at all if she's up there competing for the win. I will say this, I do think on the women's side we are on course record watch.

I have 1320 written down as a time. I am really buying major stock in temps being a huge factor here. I think I mean these are unprecedented. What is truly possible on the Havelina course when we're talking like mid to low 60s? The only question mark is how frustrating it possibly could be underfoot.

But if it's not too bad underfoot, I I don't think it's ridiculous to consider times under 1330 in the woman's side.

Do you think I was thinking about that? And for for in for Jade's case, I I only see a course record potentially happening if she's like pushed or led out on that pace. Who who do you think are some of the like players that will have the confidence to send it at you know 13 1320 pace?

Like I feel like Heather Definitely Heather. I mean Ellen ran Yeah. I mean Elanie ran 1754 at Western States this year. Once upon a time, that was a winning time at Western States. Like she's really fast. You know? Um, I think there's gonna be plenty.

Oh, I did see Elanie just um she set the third fastest time on the Joshua Tree traverse in this training block.

Oh, sweet.

Um so behind Helen Mina Faulkner and um Tabor Hemming. So she was only six minutes off of uh Helen's time. I think six or seven minutes right off of Helen's time.

That's really solid. Yeah, so then maybe we do see a little bit of a group up towards the front at whatever pace.

I agree. I think I think we'll see like Heather, Katie Azmouth, probably Camille on lap one, but probably not after that. Um I could totally see them all going for it.

Yeah, yeah. And I mean, Elleny would be there. I don't see why, yeah, I don't see why Jade or Anna McKenna wouldn't be like making sure you stay attached to that golden ticket spot, especially if there's like six or eight women.

I think we'll see Jade running conservative, um, a conservative race to her eventual win. Like I think similar to how we saw like Jen Lichter kind of sitting back in those early miles in like that third through fifth position at Black Canyon this year, I think Jade's going to be kind of like respectful of the distance and not get too carried away with what's going on in front of her.

There's always been a little bit of a mindset too at Javelina where you can kind of rip the first lap because you know that you're gonna start getting into survival mode like halfway through the second lap and then through the third and fourth laps, and then hopefully you come back to life and are able to run well on lap five.

If there isn't that, you know, middle lull, there seems to be less motivation to run that first lap, you know, hard. Like I hate the term banking time, but it does kind of feel that way for lap one at Havelina, where it's like, you know, we're gonna take advantage of the cooler temps, we're gonna set a good tempo because you're, you know, we're not really running fast, but we're not effort-wise going faster than or harder than laps three or four.

If those laps three or four have the potential to be just as fast, yeah, I feel like all the more reason to just chill out on lap one. Because there's not that much to gain there this year.

I agree. Yeah, don't put your money in the bank, put it in the S P 500, say put it in Pokemon, man.

Come on. What's your algorithm at these days?

Speaking of uh actually, never mind. I was gonna queue us something different. Let's go to the men's field, Brett. Let's go to the men's field. I don't know about you, but in the hour or so before run, especially the early morning training runs, I find it helpful to have something easy to grab that actually keeps me going and not feeling like I'm operating on empty right off the bat.

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Let's see. So I I got a couple different categories as I wrote down all the names and then I like did a whole bunch of cutting and pasting. Where I have your some of the categories are kind of small. I think I have less names written down on the men's side than the women's. Um much less overall course experience.

If, you know, like, you know, Leah, what'd you say? Three past champions. In this, we have none. Um, you know, we Raj has won the 100K. Blake has gotten second. Like there's been top 10 performances, but we don't have any repeat champions. Also on this mensa, we don't have anyone who is already running Western states.

We have a handful of people who race Western states this year. I have uh my largest category is just the golden ticket guys, which is kind of a group that have for like at least a handful of years recently or farther back, structured a lot of their season around getting into Western states. You know, it's not the only races they do, but uh there it's been like obvious setups around one or two golden ticket races, hopefully leading up to Western States.

So I've like Noah Dusso, Blake Slatengren. Um, I put those two together because they've run a lot in this block uh together. Let's see, Noah's had a solid, solid year, like second at Chuckinut, second at Cascade Crest, and eighth at the Canyons 100K, and then he was ninth at Javelina last year. Blake hasn't quite been in his same racing form as like 2023, 2024.

So I've always been kind of waiting to see like if that's coming back, because that was when he got his golden ticket in 2023, and then was fourth in 2024. He was ninth at Canyons this year, and then I think he was a DNF at CCC this year. Canhua Luo, who got fifth at Black Canyon in 2025, and was like right.

On the golden ticket, like cusp. I think it was like coming into Table Mesa, mile 50. He was actually in the golden ticket spot, and Joe McConaughey was behind him. And then Joe, I think, passed like one or two people to get into the final golden ticket spot um that year, was fourth this year at Canyon's 100K, right behind the Adam Peterman, Zach Miller, Hayden Hawks trio.

And he was like laying down the pressure on Hayden all day. Um, who else do I have in the list? Cole Watson, Jordan Bramblett, Jacob Banta. Um, I think all of them are signed up for at least one, if not more than one, golden ticket race. Um and they have all, those three have all gotten golden tickets before.

So they've all at least gone through it with Jordan and Jacob having done it most recently, uh, having both not run great at Western States this year, but had solid golden ticket runs with Jacob Banta getting second at Tarowera and Jordan getting fifth at Black Canyon this year. You've got the hundred mile speedsters.

So I've got Rajpal Panu, who was fourth at Havelina in 2024, but has broken 12 hours for 100 miles three years in a row now, all of which at jackpot, which I'm like, dude, if you if you're just hitting a sub-12-hour hundred for three years in a row, like that's impressive. Um he has been kind of straw the dark since the beginning of October and like not really putting anything up.

So I messaged him on Instagram and I was like, please tell me you're fit and ready to go, because he does make races very dramatic because he's been one of the ones that would like he's like a jackpot, he's never been afraid to just fully send it. And he always writes good Instagram posts, but he said he uh he is fit, he's ready to rip, and he actually got a coach.

He's been working with Cliff Pittman.

I saw that. I was gonna talk about that.

Yeah, so that's that's cool, that's exciting. Um because yeah, R there's not too many things that Raj really needs to like work on or improve uh for Havelina. I think the fitness has always been there and the execution was really close in 2024.

What do you think about the weather for Raj, though?

I think he's a person who would benefit from the warmer weather, like a more classic year.

But underfoot crap.

Underfoot, yeah. He's if it's muddy, Raj's fault, he slides in my rankings if he's sliding in the mud.

He he is on the record in previous years calling Havelina's course technical.

Yeah, we don't we he doesn't want you don't want to add mud to that. I don't think um I don't think he's hoping for for rain. I feel like he would rather it be hot and dry and dusty. Um but and then Rob King, he's he's my other hundred-mile speedster, who's like a name that I I feel like doesn't get mentioned a lot, but sneaky good.

Yeah, eighth fastest American hundred mile male.

It was at his Tunnel Hill last year.

Yeah.

Which was 1216. Um races a decent amount, uh, third at Gorge, uh hundred K this year in a very calculated uh like we moved up the whole day sort of race.

Yeah, and I feel good about somebody's skill set like his, if the weather is poor and the conditions underfoot are not good, just showcasing that he can run solid and move up the field at Gorge like he did, and then how know how to run fast at 100 miles. I feel like putting those two skill sets together, especially if he runs Havelina in a more conservative fashion, yeah.

I can see that really benefiting for like a third place finish or something like that.

Absolutely. And yeah, conditions at Gorge were not good for the first half of the race. Um it cleared up for the second half, but the first half was like dark and very cold and very wet. And he just kind of like it didn't really seem like it phased him at all. Um, and then my last category is the non-100 mile speedsters.

So I like oh, I'm actually missing uh Ryan Raff, I think should be on here. Uh John Rainier, Cade Michael. Yeah. What do you got then?

I got a fun stat about John Rainier. He was he won the Jackass 31k last year in 159.48, which uh he's the fastest man ever on a single javelina loop in a race context. Now he's stepping up 5x the distance.

Okay. That's hey, you get lay down one. I mean, I bet uh 100 mile pace is gonna feel very, very slow.

He had a third place finish at the extremely muddy. And three twisted fork fork 68k this year.

That's right.

If he had not had that race result to his name, I would be concerned about his racing on a sloppy course here at Havelina, but yeah, those conditions were not great, and that's a pretty solid result.

And he's had a lot of um very javelina specific training up in Flagstaff. You know, he's done a good amount of more controlled, you know, steady long runs. Like I remember looking at some of his training in the past when he was, you know, talking about ripping it at Black Canyon, and they were like your classic 20-mile Lake Mary Road, 540 pace.

But now we were seeing like 25, 35, 40 mile long runs at seven minute pace, 715 pace, like dialing it back, going a little bit further. Um, yeah, I also wrote down like, I mean, M3 twisted fork. That's a big deal. The biggest question mark is just like yeah, how well can you just keep it together over a hundred miles?

Because it's just it's a lot of yeah, getting into that getting into that uh 100 mile flow state of doing all the things outside of just the running is sometimes hard to do when you haven't done it a lot.

He's such a talented runner. We had him on the pod way back in 23, ahead of Black Canyon, um, just because he obviously had that ridiculously talented marathoning background, 212 or and uh I I love that he's stuck with the sport and like he's even like invested in in the flagstaff area and done some of these local Arabica races to slowly build.

And I talked to them briefly before and after Twisted Fork, and I think the Stoke is still there, so um this could be a good one.

That is cool. Cade Michael. M5 at Twisted Fork. M5 at Twisted Fork. I feel like Adidas has gotten around this year in terms of the racing.

He's doing a lot, he uh just came off the grindstone 50k, right? In Kodiak?

Yeah, I'm gonna say he did Kodiak after Grindstone. So he said Kodiak 50K, third place, second place at the grindstone 50k. Best result of the season was probably the third place Black Canyon in February. Um running right behind Adam. Seth won that, right? Yeah. Oh yeah, that race ruined the rest of Seth's year.

Yeah, I just feel like Cade just needs to like put it together for a long race. And that's yeah, it's hard to do. But like the talent, the fitness is there, the speed is there. He just needs to like just go out and jog for a while eat gels.

Yeah, we saw at Canyons this year, he was like 44th, I think. So I think the 100k distance kind of is not his strength, or at least we have not seen that necessarily be his strength yet. So would love to see him put it together here. Is this would this be his hundred mile debut?

I believe so. Yeah, looks like And it's like, yeah, maybe maybe it's 100K is not his distance, maybe 100 miles is. And maybe a flat hundred mile is. Yeah. Because it is, it's it works the systems differently.

unknown Definitely.

Maybe Kate'll just realize like, oh yeah, I can actually just run seven minute pace all day if there's no like spiky bits. Brett, is Cole Watson racing? Yeah. Yep. Cole's running. Yeah, he's uh what I write down. He's yeah, so he missed most of 2025 uh sacral stress fracture. He yeah, I say like he's been his best form was in 23 when he got or yeah, when he that was when he won Canyons in 23.

And then he did have his last javelina was a DNF in 2024, but he did get third back in 2021. He's been kind of taking the like, I don't know, like the Heather Jackson approach to racing this year. He's done like a couple bike races. He won the Mammoth Triple Crown. Um, because he was just like, oh, and he did a 90 mile gravel race the week before that.

Um, so he was just like scented on the bike and then was like, well, I'm already in mammoth. Should I do all three races? And I was like, dude, yeah, go for it. Uh but and then yeah, he did uh he was ninth at Tarawera, wasn't too stoked about that or the mud. So hopefully Cole doesn't have to run in the mud again because I'm sure he would prefer not to.

Um, but I would put him in one of the the more like power runner type category. So if you got the right footwear, I think he might actually be okay in the mud because he's he's a pretty powerful dude. Um but yeah, totally different approach than in years past leading up to this race. So I'm feel confident about his fitness, but I'm just curious how the body will do over 100 miles.

I'll throw a couple things in here. I uh I mean going back to Raj, I have been forever impressed by that 100k course record that he got back in 23, right? It was cool to watch that while you were out there racing as well. The 715-53 on that course is incredible. He was just he looked bouncy from start to finish.

And then the following year taking fourth in the 100-mile. Um, yeah, at the beginning of the of the program, just referencing how important experience can be when you've already had that uh sort of trial run at this race. I am really curious to see if uh if he's ready to level up and contend for uh for the win or the podium here.

I'm a big Rob King fan, and actually like I think that this possible overcast rain mud course could work really well for both Blake Slatengren, who like calls Seattle and the Pacific Northwest home, but also Rob, who has demonstrated at Gorge that um that he can get it done in like you know, more like temperate rainforest type conditions.

Uh we talk about Molly Seidel's historically impressive micro fight at Black Cannon this year, but also Jordan Bramlett had a really impressive micro fight there because he was leading the race very early. And then I think he fell out of the league group like halfway through and still held on for fifth place.

He ran 742. So I think he's he's a he's a total gamer. And then um I would encourage everyone here to go check out Jacob Banta's training on Strava and lead up for Havelena. It's been Jacob's fast. He's really fast.

He's really fast.

I want to go see him rip like CIM after this. You know, like I think he's in I think he's in like low 220s shape right now for for in terms of like marathon speed.

Who's gonna be the who's gonna lead this race? Like who's gonna be leading at the end of loop one?

Like Jordan Bramblett.

Yeah, I think it'll be probably Bramblett.

He probably felt quite good about his success and how he raced Black Canyon, and I'm sure there's a few things he would tweak, but I think we'll see him apply similar tactics here.

Yeah, I see that too. I think I I feel like him and Raj will have no problem just going pretty hard that first lap and potentially yeah, potentially laying the pressure on early.

Uh before we get to picks, any other insights from you, Brett or you, Leah?

I'm just looking at Jacobanta's like just casual 232 marathon that he did on a training run. I know. Like not in a race, just training in San Francisco. But yeah, I think uh I think he's sneaky fast and he's kind of like come up the ranks in ultra running in the last last couple years, just getting like progressively better.

And I think I think Brett and Mike like to talk about did you guys beat him at Silver State the year you guys were like M3 and M4?

Oh, I'd have to look, man. I hope so.

Yeah. You must be based, you guys could be doing what Jacob Ant is doing right now.

Yeah, yeah. You're you're probably right. I just need to try harder. Um, you know what I was just thinking would be like worst case scenario for the weather is if it was like cold and rainy early on, and then like the clouds parted and it got really hot and just like sticky.

Yeah.

Because that could totally happen.

Yes, it reminds me of that year at Bandera where that was kind of what happened and that was just sloppy.

Yeah. That would be oh man, that would be so rough to have like be like soggy, wet, and cold, but then all of a sudden get way too hot and be sweating and need ice.

Who did you guys um were there any like hero workouts that you saw or hero volume maxing across this group of athletes?

Leah, you took my uh my training block uh 50k run from Banta. That was the one that I was gonna reference. That was a great one.

Yeah, there was a lot of um yeah, I didn't see it like really anything like I didn't see any like 150 or 160 mile weeks. It seemed like there was a lot of a lot of long runs. Maybe as things that we would have said in the past were hero workouts or hero long runs, but they're getting like high volume has been getting somewhat like pretty normalized in the last couple years, where like all of these, like I was looking at like, yeah, like Raj, I think the last long run he put up was a 30 miler where it was like a bunch of four mile out and backs on a flatter section, just back and forth, and it's like six-minute pace or something crazy like that.

John Rainier was like throwing down 30, 35 mile long runs. Cade Michael's doing 600s or Ks on the track at 430 pace, but also having just 50k training days on the weekend. Um same with Noah and Blake, they were like 25, 30, 35 mile long runs. And I had always kind of categorized both of them as the lower volume runners the last few years.

Um so I guess everyone's a hero now.

Brad, who are your picks? Picks golden tickets times.

Okay. Third, I've got Ken Huilw. Second, Jordan Bramblett, and the win Rajpal Panu. And I think the winning time is gonna be about 1225.

So you the the the temps are gonna get canceled out by underfoot conditions.

Yeah, potentially. Or or we're gonna see the like the clouds part for laps three and four and it just be my muggy and gross, and then we're gonna see like big slowdowns because of how fast everyone was going in laps one and two. Um yeah, I mean, unless yeah, unless Jordan like keeps the pace honest through 100k, then that could give him or someone else the opportunity to really springboard themselves to a fast few laps.

But yeah, I I went back and forth on that, and I think I'm going on the slightly more conservative time side for this one. But I think I think it as a result, it's gonna be close though. What do you got?

Okay. I've got Jacob Anto winning. I've got Blake Slattengren in second, and I'm going dark horse pick here, John Rainier in third. And then just out of respect, I want to just roll over some of my like I think it's gonna be close all day between uh like Rob King, Rajpal Panu, Jordan Bramblett. Yeah, so but yeah, podium, Banta, Blake, Rainier.

I think the entire podium goes sub-1215, and I think we were under course record watch slightly. I think banta runs like 1205. I could see that happening. I think we're probably all in agreement that like this isn't quite a star power field, but I do believe that some of the names that are gonna that are gonna come out of this race, I think we'll have enough of a track record from them where we consider them to be heavy hitters for the future.

So I think this will be like a proving ground type race or a confirmation.

Like remember 2026 Havelina, like look where they are now.

Yeah.

How about you, Leah?

Okay, I got Rob King in third, Jacobanta second, Canhualo in first. And I think I have so much respect for Canhualo. I feel like he he's in every golden ticket race that he's running, like he's truly in it, and he is racing like hard, but not completely at the front, like not leading the race. Um, and I think he will be in that position kind of all day long at Havelina, and like I think he'll pick up some carnage.

Like perhaps we would see Jacobanta leading um at some point on like lube three or four, but then I think we'd see Kanwa Lowe uh kind of bring it home.

I could I could see that happening. These are all that was what I struggled with with, especially this men's field, was like, yeah, I don't see this as being any one person's race to lose. Um, but you know, there's like eight different guys that could potentially win or be on the podium, which will be very, very interesting for sure.

Yeah, it's pretty wild coming off the the golden ticket recipients from CCC, which is our most recent golden ticket race prior to this. And like the I everybody's been talking about like the women's golden tickets that have um been dished out from there just being like the best historic haul of golden tickets that we've ever seen in a race before.

So yeah, it's it's kind of a hard come down to Havelena where like there was so much, like, yeah, just heavy hitters. And I feel like this is a great opportunity um for people to like prove themselves. And I think something we often talk about with these races is like who has like the most to gain and the most to lose from like performances here at Havelena.

And is there anyone that comes to mind just off the top of your heads for the those categories?

Most to gain. I mean, I think I think Jade Bellsberg, you know, just being unsigned and how this getting a golden ticket at Havelena creates a lot of race security for the next what eight months. Um, because like you know you know when your A race is going to be like well out from it. And that can help a lot with contract negotiations or just knowing that you have the opportunity to have even better like negotiating after Western states, you can kind of you get to make you just have more decisions that you get to make if you run well here.

Um, I feel like Raj has always run really well when he's just simply wanted something really bad. Yeah. Um, like looking at the uh shoegate DQ from what was it, 2025 jackpot, and then just coming back like pissed in 26, just being like, okay, I'm gonna prove to everyone that it wasn't the shoes, it wasn't a fluke, like I'm just gonna go and run really hard and and then and then just did that.

And like I love watching Raj finish jackpot. He's just so screwed up and like you're like if Finn crosses the line and just zombie walks for like 10 steps and just like hurls himself into a chair, and it's like the drama is there, but I believe it. Um so that's why I feel like even if like and I I don't know where he's at and you know it's like Hoka contract or anything like that, but I just feel like internally for Raj, like it's I could just feel that there's just something to gain there in terms of just like, no, I need to nail Havelina, and I'm not gonna let anyone get in my way of that.

To me, to me, the person with the most to gain is Camille.

Yeah.

There is so much to gain here. I mean, like, look at the last couple years Wikipedia Gate, losing sponsors, OnlyFans pivot. Um like where is she at in her career? I think that there's so like the Leah, thank you for saving this episode, letting us know Camille's running. This is incredible. I think this is a major, major storyline.

Yeah, that's a great point. I feel like that you yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. Like, I think, yeah, I mean, there was even just like the pivot to race walking for a little bit, just like what is next in her career. And I think, yeah, like let's say Camille were to win this race, like, will she like she's running West, she'd run Western states then, and what would that look like?

So I almost feel like it would be this like rebranding yet again of like the focus of Camille Heron's ultra-running career.

Here's uh two more things for me. This is a this is fun. On the media side of things, the 2020 this is I'm comparing stream ones. 2023 uh Havelina live stream, 33,000 views, 2024, 43,000, last year, 69,000. Do you guys anticipate uh continued growth in this live stream?

No.

Why not?

Um, I think those couple years had the likes of like David Roach and Tara Dauer Racing, who I think have extraordinary fan bases. So I would say I think we'll see similar numbers as to last year.

I am gonna counter that with Des Linden. That's true. I think Des is gonna bring in a lot of people who are gonna watch Havelina for the first time and become fans of the race. Uh is this going to be one of those, what did you call it? When like it's happened at Leadville, where like a whole giant subset of people get introduced to the sport because of one person.

Um I could see that happening if Des, like especially if Des is crushing it. There's enough time in this race where it can catch on social media and people would start to tune in and realize over the course of the day, like, oh my god, Des Linden's, you know, winning Javelina and gonna run Western states.

So um if if Des is having like a really good day, I think we see the numbers get broken, but I think she might be the the one that moves the needle.

Yeah. I have a another question. We should probably do this one at the end of everyone. Who will we get the most hate for not choosing?

The this is like our put some respect on, put some put some respect on pick. Deslinden.

Yeah. Hey, Finn, you're the one that gets all the DMs about it. So I know. Yeah.

I think Des Linden.

Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Like I I feel like there's a fan base there of um Rightfully so.

Yeah. She's an Olympian, two-time Olympian, Boston Marathon champion, world record holder in the 50k.

Yeah, that's of note.

Yeah, what's what's a Jallina? Um men's side. I don't know.

I don't know either. It's just, yeah. I don't think I think it'd be more like des on the women's side.

You know, there's a there's a there's another name on the men's side that this just reminds me there's another name on the men's side that we we didn't discuss. And I it's hard to say if this race is out of scope for him, but uh DJ Fox uh was on men's podium at Coca Codona this year, and uh he ran 59-29, which is which is quite fast for that course historically.

Um no idea how he's treating Javelina, but obviously a great athlete. And um yeah, so that could be could be interesting. But yeah, I don't know. I I I actually think that this field be maybe because it does lack some of the typical star power and maybe like veteran greats, uh, we might not have our feet held to the fire as much here.

I'll take it.

Maybe we'll just be right. Who knows?

Yeah, that'd be nice.

Lee is 50% right, you know. Yeah.

So maybe half my podium will be right.

Last prompt before we go. So on the men's side, let's see, Will Murray took 10th at Western, Canyon Woodward took eighth, and then on the women's side, Tara Dower took sixth, and Addy was 20th, I believe. Do we think that the golden ticket winners that come out of this year's event outperform that cohort from last year?

I don't see who so for me that would be Raj and I'm already forgetting who got second. Raj and Jordan Bramblett. Uh I don't think so. On the men's side. Women. How how did the Havelina people do at Western States?

Six and Tara took six, Addie took Addie took 20th.

Well, I think that that could that's got potential to be improved upon if because I think it's Jade and Heather. Although Heather is signed up for Cocodona next year, right? So what does Heather do if Heather gets a golden ticket here?

I think she does Western States.

And not Coca-Dona, or just Coco States double.

Oh, I feel like I want to messed her up, but I think we see her do both.

Because that hurts the overall place in your Western states. Um, but I feel like Western states could be a race that Jade could be very good at, because Jade's been very good at most races she's done. Um Yeah, so I guess it's somewhat contingent, but I I I say potentially yes for the women's side.

Awesome. Okay. Uh that was our preview of this year's Javelino. We'll be back for a recap, maybe the night after or something like that. Really excited. Go follow everything on Mountain Out Post. I believe they'll be doing a preview show at some point this week as well. Uh is Skylar going to be out there?

No. Okay. Dang. He will not be out there. But Chris Warden, I'm sure AGW on the call, a few others will be tuning in. Thanks, Leah. Thanks, Brett.

2026 Javelina Jundred Preview | Analysis, Storylines, Predictions

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